Check out George Taylors blog and his recent post on the Columbus Day Storm of 1962! Later in September I will be a guest on his blog, so stay tuned! Very good and detailed material..must read!
http://appliedclimate.wordpress.com/
Monday, August 30, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Sounding Tower Ranks # 1 in NWS voting!
Great news!!
We are currently number 1 in rankings/votes for our idea to the NWS about adding sounding towers through out the area for better winter forecasts. We currently lead 2ND place by little over 100 votes, so keep on voting guys!
A lot of people have also been discussing why our idea ranks 1, since it's not really helping the NWS as a whole. Our idea ranks number one because I have awesome support with the local weather community and I have been working on getting the word out. Obviously, if there isn't a idea out there that ranks ahead of this one, then there must be some issues with some really good ideas nationally.
I'm not too worried though since I was advised through a NWS representative to go ahead and push forward with the idea by submitting it to their idea data base. Under collaboration, due to the fact that this is an idea as a whole and not just the NWS. I would like to oversee the projects if they get funded and make sure everything goes up the way it has been drawn up. So collaboration made the most sense.
To vote or keep up with our idea at the NWS, click here:
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445
Thanks again for every ones support on the idea, looking forward to having it reviewed!
We are currently number 1 in rankings/votes for our idea to the NWS about adding sounding towers through out the area for better winter forecasts. We currently lead 2ND place by little over 100 votes, so keep on voting guys!
A lot of people have also been discussing why our idea ranks 1, since it's not really helping the NWS as a whole. Our idea ranks number one because I have awesome support with the local weather community and I have been working on getting the word out. Obviously, if there isn't a idea out there that ranks ahead of this one, then there must be some issues with some really good ideas nationally.
I'm not too worried though since I was advised through a NWS representative to go ahead and push forward with the idea by submitting it to their idea data base. Under collaboration, due to the fact that this is an idea as a whole and not just the NWS. I would like to oversee the projects if they get funded and make sure everything goes up the way it has been drawn up. So collaboration made the most sense.
To vote or keep up with our idea at the NWS, click here:
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445
Thanks again for every ones support on the idea, looking forward to having it reviewed!
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Is There A Return Cycle To The Truly "BIG" Pacific Northwest Arctic Blasts?
NOTE: Steve Pierce wrote this Article!
Is There A Return Cycle To The Truly "BIG" Pacific Northwest Arctic Blasts?
"I was doing some quick number crunching recently and could not help but ponder the idea that after 20 years, we may be overdue for an "old school" type of Pac NW arctic blast, perhaps this coming winter. Why? Several factors. First, I continue to look (as do many folks lately) at the uncanny alignment of several major indices (PDO, ENSO, MEI, NPI, GLAAM, AO) lately pointing towards what could be a "greater than normal" chance of seeing at least one major Pac NW arctic outbreak this winter. Second, could there be a "return cycle" to these events? If there was, perhaps this winter will provide the proof? Third, a sun that continues at record low output levels for the third year in a row which could prove to be the "wild card" this winter."
Here are the event dates (1940-present) that occurred when all four of the following criteria were met;
1. High temperatures below 20 at PDX
2. Lows in the single digits at PDX
3. Strong east wind outflow from the gorge at PDX
4. At least 5" of snow at PDX
Event Dates Date High Low Snow Depth
12/31/1968 19 9 9
2/2/1950 18 -3 13
1/31/1950 16 -2 15
2/3/1989 15 9 6
12/30/1968 14 8 5
Return Frequency Distribution Jan 1950 to Dec 1968 = 19 years Dec 1968 to Feb 1989 = 20 years Feb 1989 to Winter 2010/11 = 22 years (Please see note #1 and #2 below).
Honorable Mentions
Note 1 - December 1990's arctic blast was close to being on this list, but it lacked minimum snow amount (5") at PDX.
Note 2 - We would be exactly 20 yrs from Dec 1990 to this coming winter had Dec 1990 met the minimum snow criteria.
Note 3 - February 1989 was the last time PDX recorded a single digit low temp.
Note 4 - Only 10 days in Portland Airport history (1940-present) recorded high temperatures below 20 for daytime highs.
The dates below get an honorable mention for meeting almost all of the criteria above.
12/20/1990
12/31/1978
12/18/1964
12/17/1964
Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
Is There A Return Cycle To The Truly "BIG" Pacific Northwest Arctic Blasts?
"I was doing some quick number crunching recently and could not help but ponder the idea that after 20 years, we may be overdue for an "old school" type of Pac NW arctic blast, perhaps this coming winter. Why? Several factors. First, I continue to look (as do many folks lately) at the uncanny alignment of several major indices (PDO, ENSO, MEI, NPI, GLAAM, AO) lately pointing towards what could be a "greater than normal" chance of seeing at least one major Pac NW arctic outbreak this winter. Second, could there be a "return cycle" to these events? If there was, perhaps this winter will provide the proof? Third, a sun that continues at record low output levels for the third year in a row which could prove to be the "wild card" this winter."
Here are the event dates (1940-present) that occurred when all four of the following criteria were met;
1. High temperatures below 20 at PDX
2. Lows in the single digits at PDX
3. Strong east wind outflow from the gorge at PDX
4. At least 5" of snow at PDX
Event Dates Date High Low Snow Depth
12/31/1968 19 9 9
2/2/1950 18 -3 13
1/31/1950 16 -2 15
2/3/1989 15 9 6
12/30/1968 14 8 5
Return Frequency Distribution Jan 1950 to Dec 1968 = 19 years Dec 1968 to Feb 1989 = 20 years Feb 1989 to Winter 2010/11 = 22 years (Please see note #1 and #2 below).
Honorable Mentions
Note 1 - December 1990's arctic blast was close to being on this list, but it lacked minimum snow amount (5") at PDX.
Note 2 - We would be exactly 20 yrs from Dec 1990 to this coming winter had Dec 1990 met the minimum snow criteria.
Note 3 - February 1989 was the last time PDX recorded a single digit low temp.
Note 4 - Only 10 days in Portland Airport history (1940-present) recorded high temperatures below 20 for daytime highs.
The dates below get an honorable mention for meeting almost all of the criteria above.
12/20/1990
12/31/1978
12/18/1964
12/17/1964
Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
Friday, August 13, 2010
Tyree Wilde of NWS's and Dr. Rob's Statement Regarding Tower Plans
We are finding more and more support and reason's for trying to set up sounding towers through out NW Oregon Coast Range in the name of accurate winter forecasts, here's the NWS's opinion through Tyree and Dr. Robs statement. Dr. Rob is a highly educated and respectable buddy of mine on the weather email list, he offers a lot to the local weather community.
Tyree's Take (NWS of Portland):
Grant,
Temperature sensors at 500, 1000 and 1,500 feet (or tower top) would be very beneficial to help obtain freezing level information and help with rain/snow decisions during the winter months. As for wind, I suggest mounting the wind instrument at 10 meters (~33 ft), which is the standard height we place our wind instruments. That way, the wind data is useful to compare to other locations.
Tyree
Tyree Wilde
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA's National Weather Service
Portland, OR
Dr. Rob's View:
I believe it is imperative for the placement of two to three more towers located along the Coast Range. A temperature sensor, anemometer, and sounding reading would be highly vital if they were implemented. These should be placed roughly south of Forest Grove to just north of Salem. In the event of a southerly wind event/storm it would be exceedingly helpful to understand the winds below 950mb to get an idea how strong the winds are occurring below the 2,000' plateau and whether the temperatures are rising due to warm air advection which may result in improved mixing. These factors can be used to guesstimate wind speeds down into the Willamette Valley as the south/southwesterly winds descend and/or are mixed towards the surface ahead of a frontal system. Currently the Rockhouse1 RAWS is the only observation in 1,500' to 2,000' elevation to use as a measure for windy to high wind conditions in the Willamette Valley roughly from Salem northward. In past seasons when the wind gusts reach 70mph at Rockhouse1 RAWS gusts exceeding 50mph are shortly to follow into the Salem area. If we had such information farther north it would help greatly with wind speed projections into the western Willamette Valley areas for locations such as McMinnville, Newberg, Gaston, Sherwood, etc.
On the other side of the coin let's discuss the impacts additional towers and sounding, temperature, dewpoint, and wind readings would have on understanding the temperature column below 2,000'. Since the northern Willamette Valley has various micro-climates and when experiencing Wintry weather the Gorge is the main player in terms of the depth of cold air dome over the Portland/Vancouver area, wet bulb effect, evaporative cooling, to name a few. If such towers were in place we would have a much better understanding of the depth of the cold layer, the extent in which is lies to the south and southwest, whether or not it is being eroded from warmer pacific air, and to determine if the Cities of the Willamette Valley are going to experience snow, sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, or just a cold rain. As of right now the main instruments used for cold layer depth are the KPTV Tower temperatures. That is just not enough information to help see or take a slice of the temperature column to our south/southwest.
For all of the reasons I have explained and discussed above I think it is important and should be a goal of constructing these towers.
- Dr. Rob
Tyree's Take (NWS of Portland):
Grant,
Temperature sensors at 500, 1000 and 1,500 feet (or tower top) would be very beneficial to help obtain freezing level information and help with rain/snow decisions during the winter months. As for wind, I suggest mounting the wind instrument at 10 meters (~33 ft), which is the standard height we place our wind instruments. That way, the wind data is useful to compare to other locations.
Tyree
Tyree Wilde
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA's National Weather Service
Portland, OR
Dr. Rob's View:
I believe it is imperative for the placement of two to three more towers located along the Coast Range. A temperature sensor, anemometer, and sounding reading would be highly vital if they were implemented. These should be placed roughly south of Forest Grove to just north of Salem. In the event of a southerly wind event/storm it would be exceedingly helpful to understand the winds below 950mb to get an idea how strong the winds are occurring below the 2,000' plateau and whether the temperatures are rising due to warm air advection which may result in improved mixing. These factors can be used to guesstimate wind speeds down into the Willamette Valley as the south/southwesterly winds descend and/or are mixed towards the surface ahead of a frontal system. Currently the Rockhouse1 RAWS is the only observation in 1,500' to 2,000' elevation to use as a measure for windy to high wind conditions in the Willamette Valley roughly from Salem northward. In past seasons when the wind gusts reach 70mph at Rockhouse1 RAWS gusts exceeding 50mph are shortly to follow into the Salem area. If we had such information farther north it would help greatly with wind speed projections into the western Willamette Valley areas for locations such as McMinnville, Newberg, Gaston, Sherwood, etc.
On the other side of the coin let's discuss the impacts additional towers and sounding, temperature, dewpoint, and wind readings would have on understanding the temperature column below 2,000'. Since the northern Willamette Valley has various micro-climates and when experiencing Wintry weather the Gorge is the main player in terms of the depth of cold air dome over the Portland/Vancouver area, wet bulb effect, evaporative cooling, to name a few. If such towers were in place we would have a much better understanding of the depth of the cold layer, the extent in which is lies to the south and southwest, whether or not it is being eroded from warmer pacific air, and to determine if the Cities of the Willamette Valley are going to experience snow, sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, or just a cold rain. As of right now the main instruments used for cold layer depth are the KPTV Tower temperatures. That is just not enough information to help see or take a slice of the temperature column to our south/southwest.
For all of the reasons I have explained and discussed above I think it is important and should be a goal of constructing these towers.
- Dr. Rob
We need your Votes for our NWS Idea!
We are currently looking for your votes for the NWS's idea's page. We offered the idea of adding tower readings in the Coast Range around KMMV and NW Oregon to help better advance our predictions on winter storm events. Click the link below and vote now!
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445
Big THANKS from McMinnville Weather.com!
--Grant
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445
Big THANKS from McMinnville Weather.com!
--Grant
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Are we in for a Wild Winter? Steve Pierce thinks so!
Update: NOAA Says La Nina In Full Swing Now
2:30pm Thursday, August 5th 2010
NOAA issued it's latest update today, which indicates that La Nina will continue to strengthen this coming fall and winter. You can read the entire NOAA update at the link below, along with my personal thoughts on the impact to our area below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
La Nina = Portland / Vancouver Could See A Wild Ride This Winter
* Note - The views presented below are my personal assessments. I am not associated with NOAA. Permission is granted to quote or reuse the information below, with credit given to author.
Headlines
"Get ready. Mother nature has decided to toss us a La Nina curve-ball, which could equate to a wild ride for the Pacific Northwest this winter. Last winter was dominated by an El Nino which directed much of the colder and wetter weather away from the Pacific Northwest. This coming winter may not be as lucky. Opposite of an El Nino known as La Nina, is marked by colder than normal ocean temperatures along the equator that wax and wane on average of every five years or so. These fluctuations help steer the jet stream across the United States during the northern hemisphere winter. However, the devil may be in the details this year. The current La Nina episode is not only the second event in just the past three years, but also shows signs of being just as strong as the last. This year's La Nina also came on very quickly, which may have contributed to what was a dismal start to summer, with record setting rain and cold weather in both May and June. The Portland airport has only reached 90 degrees or higher four times this summer which is well below normal. This summer has also been marked with a greater than normal number of cloudy mornings before finally see sunshine in the afternoon. This has also helped keep high temperatures down this summer west of the cascades.
La Nina Can Be Wild
The previous La Nina lasted from 2007 through 2008. During that event, the coast suffered through a prolonged wind storm not seen there in decades. Winds were clocked at more than 125mph at several coastal location from Lincoln City north to the southern Washington coast and stayed at or above hurricane force in some locations for more than 36 hours. Record setting floods struck western Washington that winter as well. In December of 2008, the Portland airport received the most snow in December history (1940-present), along with its whitest Christmas on record. Nearly 10" was on the ground over Christmas, smashing any previous records held. Winter of 2008/2009 went on to be the snowiest in Portland since 1968/1969 with 24" and 34" respectively.
This Year's La Nina Is Different
This years La Nina is also occurring at a very interesting time when two other "x-factors" may be coming into play as well. X-factor #1, widely known as the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which oscillates every 25-30 years has flipped back to the cold phase in the last few years. The PDO is essentially a method of tracking sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. The PDO phase can also have an impact on jet stream patterns specific to the Pacific Northwest. A rare weather "treat" is when the cold phase PDO is coupled with a global La Nina. These two phenomenon, when combined have been known to bring the Pacific Northwest some of its wildest winters, with plenty of snow, especially in the mountains. The Pacific Northwest last saw a prolonged cold phase PDO signal from roughly 1950-1975. X-factor #2 is that all of this is occurring at the same time as the sun continues to rest in a deep solar minimum, not seen in the last 100+ years. The sun naturally fluctuates in the amount of solar output every 11 years, in what is referred to as the "solar cycle." The last solar cycle hit bottom in 2007, as scheduled, then abruptly stayed at very low levels ever since. It has yet to return to expected levels nearly three years into what should be a pronounced upswing of the next cycle. This is by far the single x-factor that has many forecasters wondering what effect this may have in the months and years to come. The last time the Pacific Northwest saw all three of these factors come into play (La Nina, Negative PDO Phase and Solar Minimum) at the same time was the fall and winter of 1955/1956. The result was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in Portland since records began at the airport in 1940.
Bottom Line
The chances for seeing above normal snowfall and colder than normal temperatures, coupled with at least one potent Pacific storm that could bring high winds across the region this coming winter appears at this point to be trending higher than normal, based on these factors. However, there is still plenty of time to refine things, so get out there and enjoy summer while it lasts.
Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
NOAA issued it's latest update today, which indicates that La Nina will continue to strengthen this coming fall and winter. You can read the entire NOAA update at the link below, along with my personal thoughts on the impact to our area below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
La Nina = Portland / Vancouver Could See A Wild Ride This Winter
* Note - The views presented below are my personal assessments. I am not associated with NOAA. Permission is granted to quote or reuse the information below, with credit given to author.
Headlines
"Get ready. Mother nature has decided to toss us a La Nina curve-ball, which could equate to a wild ride for the Pacific Northwest this winter. Last winter was dominated by an El Nino which directed much of the colder and wetter weather away from the Pacific Northwest. This coming winter may not be as lucky. Opposite of an El Nino known as La Nina, is marked by colder than normal ocean temperatures along the equator that wax and wane on average of every five years or so. These fluctuations help steer the jet stream across the United States during the northern hemisphere winter. However, the devil may be in the details this year. The current La Nina episode is not only the second event in just the past three years, but also shows signs of being just as strong as the last. This year's La Nina also came on very quickly, which may have contributed to what was a dismal start to summer, with record setting rain and cold weather in both May and June. The Portland airport has only reached 90 degrees or higher four times this summer which is well below normal. This summer has also been marked with a greater than normal number of cloudy mornings before finally see sunshine in the afternoon. This has also helped keep high temperatures down this summer west of the cascades.
La Nina Can Be Wild
The previous La Nina lasted from 2007 through 2008. During that event, the coast suffered through a prolonged wind storm not seen there in decades. Winds were clocked at more than 125mph at several coastal location from Lincoln City north to the southern Washington coast and stayed at or above hurricane force in some locations for more than 36 hours. Record setting floods struck western Washington that winter as well. In December of 2008, the Portland airport received the most snow in December history (1940-present), along with its whitest Christmas on record. Nearly 10" was on the ground over Christmas, smashing any previous records held. Winter of 2008/2009 went on to be the snowiest in Portland since 1968/1969 with 24" and 34" respectively.
This Year's La Nina Is Different
This years La Nina is also occurring at a very interesting time when two other "x-factors" may be coming into play as well. X-factor #1, widely known as the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which oscillates every 25-30 years has flipped back to the cold phase in the last few years. The PDO is essentially a method of tracking sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. The PDO phase can also have an impact on jet stream patterns specific to the Pacific Northwest. A rare weather "treat" is when the cold phase PDO is coupled with a global La Nina. These two phenomenon, when combined have been known to bring the Pacific Northwest some of its wildest winters, with plenty of snow, especially in the mountains. The Pacific Northwest last saw a prolonged cold phase PDO signal from roughly 1950-1975. X-factor #2 is that all of this is occurring at the same time as the sun continues to rest in a deep solar minimum, not seen in the last 100+ years. The sun naturally fluctuates in the amount of solar output every 11 years, in what is referred to as the "solar cycle." The last solar cycle hit bottom in 2007, as scheduled, then abruptly stayed at very low levels ever since. It has yet to return to expected levels nearly three years into what should be a pronounced upswing of the next cycle. This is by far the single x-factor that has many forecasters wondering what effect this may have in the months and years to come. The last time the Pacific Northwest saw all three of these factors come into play (La Nina, Negative PDO Phase and Solar Minimum) at the same time was the fall and winter of 1955/1956. The result was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in Portland since records began at the airport in 1940.
Bottom Line
The chances for seeing above normal snowfall and colder than normal temperatures, coupled with at least one potent Pacific storm that could bring high winds across the region this coming winter appears at this point to be trending higher than normal, based on these factors. However, there is still plenty of time to refine things, so get out there and enjoy summer while it lasts.
Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Accuweather 2010/11 Winter Forecast: Get ready for a wild winter!
According to Accuweather's Joe Bastardi; recently released this morning, he predicts a pretty cold and snowy winter for the NW. It's great to get folks from the east coast's take on a coming winter, and to be honest, it's been a long time since I seen a map like that for the NW from an east coast guy! To be honest though, I can see where he is coming from with current SST's and other data at low readings regarding La Nina. It will be quite interesting, but you can check his forecast out at the link below:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp
Sunday, August 01, 2010
2010 Winter Predictions Starting to Appear Tuesday
We will have our first peak on other mets around the country on their take on this coming winter, what they see, and what kind of factors that will play an important role this coming season. Tuesday, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will release his Winter Forecast, I will have that posted on the blog as well as my take. I will try to get George Taylors predictions this year up as well..those are always a great read.
At the end of September, I will release my "Official" 2010/2011 Winter Weather Predictions posted on McMinnville Weather.com. I usually wait to the very last second possible, with regards to ever changing numbers and atmospheric conditions that give us certain clues. More disccusions to follow this week.
At the end of September, I will release my "Official" 2010/2011 Winter Weather Predictions posted on McMinnville Weather.com. I usually wait to the very last second possible, with regards to ever changing numbers and atmospheric conditions that give us certain clues. More disccusions to follow this week.
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