Site Down for a Few/ Update Struggle.

Hello good people that you are,

I just wanted to first and foremost apologize for the lack of post's and updates in the last two weeks, especially during our early Arctic episode. Even though I saw this event out for almost two weeks, I had begun taking on other endeavors, such as working for a seasonal job to help out with school, transportation..etc. It got real hard to find any time to post while working, but will use weekends and early morning post's in the future to help with that.

I have a few updates I need to add to the site, but the server has been down and need to figure it out soon. I’m assuming by this Weekend, everything will be up and updated with recent content.

I'll post another blog later this afternoon that’s related to our recent weather and broken records. Thank you for all your support and patience through these busy times.

Coldest Air of the Season Right Around the Corner!

That's right! Looks like we will start digging into some of the coldest weather of the season this weekend, with snow levels lowering near 1500ft starting Thursday night. The picture I have attached is for next week, this shows a perfect "Arctic" air setup, which would keep us well well below normal for the remainder of next week as well.

Though, this is very interesting, we still ahve to accept the fact that the models will continue to sort out all the fine details before then..so a lot will change from now till then. And for as early as it is, im not complaining one bit about the interesting weather model runs this month. Beats 8 months of no excitement anyday! Tomorrow I will have more details and more specific blog post, so stay tuned!

--Grant

Weather Tidbits

Today i'll be trying something new, i'll be posting weather tidbits that catch my eye during the day that relates to weather, and our weather in general. It's been quite "inactive" weather wise, just cool wet weather. Latest model runs have been showing an interesting blocking pattern set up in the pacific, which would open the door for colder weather on our doorsteps. But for now, thats still quite a ways out and a lot will change from now and then.


Can an Indonesian Volcano Effect Our Weather?

Yesterday was the coolest day of the fall season so far, some places around Hood River at 1,600ft + saw their first snows of the season.


So your not good at interpreting weather models and data, turn to pig spleens to forecast weather!

UPDATED RAIN TOTALS via National Weather Service

Here's updated data from the National Weather Service of Portland regarding the recent rains:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 845 AM PDT MON OCT 25 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA... A STRONG AREA OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DROVE HEAVY RAIN INTO OREGON OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE FOLLOWING ARE AMOUNTS FROM REPORTING STATIONS:


48 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 5 AM PDT MONDAY:
TILLAMOOK..................................3.90 INCHES
EUGENE AIRPORT.............................2.60 INCHES
CORVALLIS..................................2.11 INCHES
TROUTDALE..................................2.02 INCHES
SCAPPOOSE..................................1.98 INCHES
HILLSBORO..................................1.85 INCHES
VANCOUVER..................................1.82 INCHES
MCMINNVILLE................................1.81 INCHES
KELSO......................................1.74 INCHES
PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.............1.55 INCHES
ASTORIA....................................1.47 INCHES
SALEM AIRPORT..............................1.04 INCHES
NEWPORT....................................1.02 INCHES


ADDITIONAL OREGON REPORTS ENDING AT 8 AM PDT MONDAY:
LEES CAMP..................................5.20 INCHES
SADDLE MOUNTAIN............................4.70 INCHES
FALLS CITY.................................4.20 INCHES
MARION FORKS...............................3.90 INCHES
JEWELL.....................................3.90 INCHES
HASKINS DAM................................3.90 INCHES
DETROIT LAKE...............................3.50 INCHES
COUGAR.....................................3.50 INCHES
MAPLETON...................................3.40 INCHES
STAYTON....................................3.00 INCHES
DIXIE MOUNTAIN.............................3.00 INCHES
SCOTTS MILLS...............................2.70 INCHES
GRANDE RONDE...............................2.70 INCHES
VERNONIA...................................2.60 INCHES
SUMMIT.....................................2.60 INCHES
BONNEVILLE DAM.............................2.50 INCHES
BULL RUN...................................2.50 INCHES
FOREST GROVE...............................2.30 INCHES
GRESHAM CITY...............................2.20 INCHES
HOOD RIVER.................................1.29 INCHES


THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT

Rain Records and Mt. Snow!

Wow, talk about a little of everything...heavy rain/wind/lightning/snow. Places around the metro area are getting close to breaking some rainfall records, here are some totals as of 6 AM this morning:

Troutdale
1.66"
Tillamook
1.42"
Vancouver
1.32"
Eugene
1.17"
Portland
1.14"
Hillsboro
1.13"
Aurora
1.08"


As for Mt. Hood, I don't really need to explain too much if your the ones who like starring at pictures. Timberline is reporting a little over 8 " of fresh new snow and snow covered roads, so if anyone plans on heading up there, come prepared for winter weather conditions.

Here's Steve Pierces Morning Recap via Oregon AMS:

Weekend Rainfall Nears Record


Portland, Oregon (October 25th 2010) – "The Pacific Northwest was pounded with heavy rain, thunder, lightning and blustery winds as the first strong storm of the fall season rolled across the region over the weekend. Winds gusted to as high as 60 mph along the coast. The Portland International Airport received 1.14" of rainfall Sunday alone, barely missing the old record of 1.31" set back in 1943. When combining Saturday's rainfall with Sunday's, the Portland Airport picked up more than 1.62" of rain for the weekend, which brings the total for the month to just over 3 inches. On average, Portland receives about 2.88" of rainfall for the month of October. The wettest October ever at the Portland Airport (1940-2010) was set back in 1994 when 8.41" of rain fell. Some areas in the coast range and Cascades picked up nearly 3" of rainfall over the same period."

NOTE: Rain Table above is regarded to this article.



Steve Pierce, Vice President
phone: 503-504-2075
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

Last Day: WWA Wrap- Up!

I want to take the time to thank a few buddies of mine for helping spread the word this week on our participation of Winter Weather Awareness Week with the National Weather Service of Portland. This has been a very successful Winter Weather Awareness week and we belive we reached out to as many folks as we can regarding the issue. Today, is obviously the last day so lets go ahead and recap this past week and finish off!

...Enjoy the great outdoors in the Pacific Northwest this winter season, but keep and eye or ear on the changeable weather...

The National Weather Service issues a variety of winter weather watches, advisories and warnings (Tuesday's topic). Safety tips were also discussed. Always check the latest weather forecast before heading out and take the warnings issued by the National Weather Service seriously.

Before winter weather threatens this season, you should prepare a winter safety kit for you vehicle. Such kits are also available at many retail and auto supply stores. Remember, if you become stranded on the roads during a storm, run the motor about 10 minutes each hour for heat, but keep the window open a bit for ventilation. Also, keep the exhaust pipe clear of obstruction to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Finally, make yourself visible to rescuers by turning on the dome light at night while running the motor.

Avoid overexertion when outdoors. Heart attacks can kill during and after storms, because shoveling snow or freeing stuck vehicles can be quite stressful.

A valuable companion when heading out this cold season is a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio, the voice of the National Weather Service. It provides you with the latest weather conditions and forecasts. You can purchase such radios at many local electronics or department stores, and over the internet.

Use the 511 phone and internet traveler information services provided by state transportation departments to info on road conditions, road work, vehicle restrictions, and road closures, before you travel.

Finally, if you need more information on winter weather safety, winter weather brochures, or NOAA Weather Radio, please contact your nearest National Weather Service office by phone, or by web.

Thank you for your participation in this year's Winter Weather Awareness Week. We hope this information has been beneficial to you.

For questions about local Winter Weather Preparedness, contact your local NOAA National Weather Service Office!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/seasonal/wintersat.php

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/

WWA: Day 5! Is it just me or did it just get really Windy?!

Hope everyone’s having a wonderful Friday morning. Today, we will be discussing Wind Storms/Events for the Pacific Northwest, for those of you who have lived here for over 5 years+ should already have this down by now. If not, great time to reeducate and prepare yourself for the next "Big Blow" (Which we are "Overdue" for).


The Pacific Northwest does not get hurricanes, but it does get hurricane force winds.

Across eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, Idaho and Montana:
In January 2008 a powerful wind storm in Walla Walla, WA and Milton Freewater, OR is a recent and striking example. Wind gusts exceeding 70 mph caused widespread damage. Hundreds of trees were downed, power lines were damaged, vehicles were blown off the road, and even houses were damaged during this event.

Across western Washington and western Oregon:
The best example was the nation's strongest non-tropical windstorm ever---the Columbus Day storm of 1962. This storm produced hurricane force winds across western Oregon and Washington. Winds of 150 mph (category 4 hurricane force) winds rocked the coastal areas, killing 46 persons, injuring hundreds more and knocking out power for several million people. Damage was widespread, with buildings, schools and thousands of homes either destroyed or damage. Other notable windsstorms of the past: the Great Olympic Blowdown of 1921, the November 13th/15th 1981 Twin Wind Storms, the Inauguration Day storm of 1993, and most recently the Great Coastal Gale of December 2007.


Are you ready for the next windstorm?
Windstorms bring down trees and power lines, and produce much blowing debris. Falling trees and blowing debris cause the most fatalities.

Be sure to have your 3-day emergency preparedness kit ready at home, school and/or at work. This kit should include water and non-perishable food for each person, and AM/FM battery-powered radio, along with flashlights and extra batteries. Be sure to include vital medications, sleeping bags, blankets and warm clothing.

In addition, inspect your home and grounds each year for nearby trees that may fall and damage your home. Ensure the trees are healthy and trimmed, and you home, school or business is structurally sound. It is also a good idea to bring lightweight items in out of the weather, or tie them down. During strong gusty winds, such items can become dangerous missiles. These precautions will help ensure that you are ready for the next big blow.


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Additional Links of Interest...
Pacific NW Windstorm Brochure (.pdf)
Past Windstorms of Oregon, including Columbus Day Storm
Historic Windstorm Photographs (mostly NW Oregon/SW Washington)


Remember, in times of hazardous winter weather, you can get all these vital NOAA/National Weather Service messages via NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite local media, or through NOAA's National Weather Service websites.

Tomorrow is our Last Day of Winter Weather Awareness Week, we will offer a recap on Sunday following the last post on Saturday. We appreciate everyone who has taken the time to go through and read up on potential future winter hazards, we hope this helps other folks who may not know too much about the weather here, find the knowledge needed to get through any given winter like a true Oregonian. Thank you again!


NWS Winter Weather Awareness Official Page

--Grant L.

Day 4: Flooding, Are you Prepared?

Good morning folks! So far in our Winter Weather Segmant we talked about how to deal with the cold and how to read winter weather warnings/advisories. We also learned how to react and what to do in certain events. But one other thing that we are missing out on, is information regarding flooding/warnings-advisories regarding flooding and how to respond. Do you know what to do?


During most winters, storms bring long periods of heavy rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest. In addition to extended rain, flooding can also occur due to ice jams, where large flows of ice pile up. This pile-up of ice can act like a dam, causing water to back up and flood. Warm weather can also cause snow on the middle and higher mountains to melt, putting more water into already rain-swollen streams.

Flooding causes more deaths and prpoerty damage in the U.S. than any other severe weather related event. The majority of flood related deaths occur when people become trapped in automobiles while attempting to drive through flooded areas. Flowing water can be deceptively strong, and pack a powerful punch. As little as six inches of water is enough to float a small car and carry it away. There have been many floods in the history of the Northwest, which include the devastating floods of December 1964 and February 1996. Most recently, in Dec 2007 and Jan 2009, significant flooding struck the Pacific Northwest, closing a twenty mile stretch of interstate 5 near Chehalis Washington under 10 feet of water. Coastal flooding can also occur during the winter months, and poses a threat to life and property. Winds generated from very strong Pacific storms can drive ocean water inland, much like a storm surge, and can cause significant flooding along the immediate coastal areas and estuaries.

A Flood refers to a gradual rise in the water along a stream, river, wash or over an extended period of time. Floods result from heavy rainfall, river ice jams, snowmelt. They can erode an entire mountain side, roll boulders the size of trucks, tear out trees, destroy buildings, wash out roads and bridges, and cause the loss of lives. Rain weakened soils can also result in mudslides capable of closing major highways.

Flood Watch...
This means that flooding is possible with the watch area. You should remain alert and be ready to evacuate on a moment's notice.

Flood Warning...
This means that flooding has been reported, or is imminent. When a flood warning is issued for your area, act quickly to save yourself. If advised to evacuate, do so immediately. Go to higher ground, or climb to safetly. Move to a safe area before access is cut off by rising flood waters.

Nearly half of all flood fatalities are auto-related. Water that is two feet deep will carry away most automobiles. Never attempt to drive through a flooded roadway. The road bed may be washed out beneath the water, and you could be stranded or trapped. If the vehicle stalls, leave it immediately and seek higher ground.

The best advice if you are in a vehicle: TURN AROUND…Don't DROWN.
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From the past...
Record Floods of December 1964 [some historical photos]
The December 1964 rainstorm was undoubtedly the most severe rainstorm to ever occur over central Oregon, and among the most severe over western Oregon since the late 1870s. Several observing stations across central Oregon recorded two-thirds of their normal annual rainfall in just 5 days. Scores of stations set new records for both 24-hour totals and December monthly rainfall totals. Widespread severe flooding occurred, with at least 30 major highway bridges receiving such damage as to make them unuseable! The new John Day multi-million dollar bridge was destroyed as were scores of bridges on county and secondary roads. Hundreds of miles of roads and highways were washed out or badly damaged. Thousands of people had to be evacuated due to ensuing floods.

The Willamette River at downtown Portland had a stage of 29.8 feet. This was a record high for the winter season, and was within inches of the peak stage during the Columbia River spring flood of 1948. Hundreds of homes and other buildings were destroyed and an even greater number were badly damaged. .Heavy snow followed by persistent heavy rains lead to record flooding in Oregon during the later half of December 1964 and January 1965. In all, 17 people died. Virtually every river in the state was far above flood stage and mudslides, bridge failures, and inundation closed the state's roads, airports, and railways. Reservoirs were overwhelmed early on in the storm and many proved unable to release water fast enough to prevent overtopping. Dorena Dam, south of Eugene had water flowing over the top more than 8 feet deep.
Read more information on this and other historic storms in Oregon.

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Additional Links of Interest...
1996 Flood Crests Summary of Northwest Oregon/SW Washington
Each local office may have photographs online (see office links below)


Remember, in times of hazardous winter weather, you can get all these vital NOAA/National Weather Service messages via NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite local media, or through NOAA's National Weather Service websites.

Day 5, we still have to discuss windstorms and how to prepare for those events, so stay tuned for more important information during Winter Weather Awareness Week. Follow along yourself at the NWS of Portland.

Start of the Rainy Season?? And Day 3 of Winter Weather Awareness Week!

Before we go on discussing Day 3's Winter Weather Awareness material, I wanted to discuss the change in patterns coming up starting Thursday night into next week. According to models, which have been consistent for the most part in the last 4 days showing a sudden switch off to The Pacific Northwest Rainy Season. We consider this the start of the "Rainy Season" due to the fact that, it's Mid-October (Normally the start of the Rainy Season here as it is), model's show no sustained dry periods for over a week and lowering snow levels in the Cascades. So all in all, expect the next week to be very Fall-like and if you are traveling or doing any Hiking this weekend, be aware of the lowering snow levels and come prepared.

Today is Day 3 of our Winter Weather Awareness celebration so lets discuss the really cold stuff that happens to fall all over the state during Winter!


Snow, Ice, Avalanche and Blizzards are the most common of Winter's many hazards.

Winter storms are a frequent occurence across the Pacific Northwest. Many of these storms bring snow amounts that cause road closures, especially through the mountain passes. Wind, in combination with the snow, can cause reduced visibility and deep snow drifts. Along with the heavy snow comes an avalanche threat in areas of steep terrain. In valley locations, temperatures may be near freezing during the day, but after the storm passes, temperatures plummet causing wet roadways to become ribbons of black ice. In some valleys, cool air trapped near the surface remains below freezing, while warmer air aloft drops rain through the sub-freezing air, causing glaze ice or freezing rain.

All of these hazards are forecast ahead of time by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Winter storm watches are generally issued 1 to 3 days prior to the storm's arrival. Winter storm warnings, ice storm warnings and heavy snow warnings are issued within a day and sometimes two days's warning.

1) Winter Storm Warning...issued when any combination of freezing rain, sleet, wind and/or heavy snow occurs over an area that is expected to cause significant widespread damage. Snow amounts required for winter storm warnings vary, given the terrain and location. For low lying areas, which normally receive very little snow, only 2 to 4 inches of snow is required for a winter storm warning. On the other hand in mountainous areas, where nearly every storm brings at least 6 inches of snow, 8 to 10 inches (or more) of snow is required for a warning. A winter storm warning means that road crews will have difficulty keeping roads open and snow free, making travel difficult at best, and impossible at worst.


2) Blizzard Warning... is normally associated with severe winter weather in the northern plains where strong northwest winds bring snow and frigid temperatures. While rather common for the plains states, blizzard or near blizzard conditions can occur in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a combination of wind that is 35 mph or stronger accompanied by snow with visibilities frequently below one-quarter of a mile.


3) Ice Storm Warning... in the Pacific Northwest are infrequent, but can be extremely dangerous. Across interior locations, valley locations will have temperatures below freezing when a warm winter storm blows overhead. Rain falling out of the storm passes through the sub-freezing air near the surface and freezes on contact with objects. These conditions cause trees to snap, power lines to fall, and make roads nearly impossible to navigate.


4) Avalanche Warnings...Avalanche Warnings are issued by the Northwest Avalanche Forecast Center, located in Seattle. These products are issued when there is a significant threat of avalanches in the Cascades and Olympics backcountry, possibly affecting mountain roadways and other high country interests. Also, see the NW Avalanche Center's website.

Thousands of avalanches occur each year in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. With the popularity of winter sports, avalanches pose a great risk to skiers, hikers and snowmobilers. The risk is very real, as people die each year when sudden avalanches bury them. Avalanches can happen anywhere the slope is steep enough and has a heavy load of snow. They typically occur during or just after snowstorms and most occur on a slope of 30 to 45 degrees. By waiting 36 hours after a big snowstorm, you may allow the snow to settle. If you stay in the valleys away from avalanches chutes, in stands of dense trees, or on gentle slopes, you can minimize your risk to avalanches.

…AVALANCHE SAFETY RULES…
1) NEVER TRAVEL ALONE. Always have one or more companions. If you are alone, and get trapped by an avalanche, you may not be found until April or May.

2) If crossing a slope that may be prone to avalanches, do it one person at a time. You want to minimize the impact on your party if an avalanche occurs.

WHEN WINTER STORMS THREATEN…AVOID TRAVEL IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. ROAD CREWS WORK HARD TO KEEP ROADS OPEN…STUCK CARS ONLY MAKE THEIR JOB HARDER.


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Additional Links of Interest...
Top 10 Weather Events of the 1900s for Oregon
Top 10 Weather Events of the 1900s for Washington
Each local office may have other historical data and photographs online (see office links below)

Remember, in times of hazardous winter weather, you can get all these vital NOAA/National Weather Service messages via NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite local media, or through NOAA's National Weather Service websites.

Day 2: Do You Know What The Warnings Mean and How to React?

On day two of the NWS Winter Weather Awareness Week, we look into Winter Warnings, what they mean and how to react. You may be surprised by the definitions and certain explanations regarding certain Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories so this is a really great way to get accustome to The Pacific Northwest Winter.


ARE YOU READY FOR WINTER WEATHER ?

A goal of the National Weather Service is to provide information on winter storms, with enough advance notice to allow the whole community to take actions needed to prepare for and deal with adverse and sometimes dangerous weather conditions. As the threat of severe winter weather draws closer, and the confidence in the location and timing of the event increases, the National Weather Service will issue various bulletins that become increasingly more specific. Here is what these bulletins mean, and what precautions you should take:

NOAA's National Weather Service uses a four-tier approach to alert the public for the potential for severe weather or high fire danger. This four-tier approach consists of outlooks, advisories, watches and warnings.

1) Winter Storm Outlook...
A winter storm outlook is issued when conditions are favorable for hazardouse winter weather to develop within the next 3 to 7 days. It is intended for those groups that require considerable lead time to prepare for the event.

ACTION: Stay tuned to local media or monitor NOAA Weather Radio for updates. Evaluate your emergency action plan and the resources you have in your home, car or work place to deal with a winter storm.

2) Winter Storm Watch...
A winter storm watch is issued when the risk of hazardous winter weather has increased, but occurrence, location and timing is still somewhat uncertain. Generally, a watch is issued when there is a significant threat of severe winter weather in the next 12 to 48 hours.

ACTION: You should prepare now and ensure that all emergency plans and resources are in place. Note: Winter Storm Watches may be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings, if conditions warrant.

3) Winter Weather Advisory...
Winter weather advisories are issued for less serious winter weather conditions that are occurring, or have a high likelihood of occurring. These products are used for winter weather situations that are less severe than a Warning, but will cause significant inconvenience. These situations should not be life threatening, damage is usually localized and the main danger is hazardous travel. Note: This advisory may be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning if conditions warrant.

4) Winter Storm Warning...
A winter storm warning is issued when a hazardous winter weather event is occurring, imminent, or has a very high probability of occurrence. Warning products are used for conditions that pose a threat to life or property. Winter Storm warnings are issued for several types of hazardous winter weather, including heavy snow, sleet, or a combination of snow and wind.

ACTION: YOU SHOULD ACT NOW. STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM ENDS. LIMIT ANY TRAVEL TO ONLY WHAT IS ESSENTIAL.

5) Ice Storm Warning...
An ice storm warning is issued when freezing rain will accumulate at a rate that causes a coating of ice that will make outdoor activities dangerous. Tree limbs and power lines fall under the weight of the ice. These conditions are fairly rare but, when they occur, can be especially dangerous.

6) Blizzard Warning...
Blizzard warnings are issued when:
Sustained wind speeds of 35 mph or more, or frequents wind gusts of 35 mph or more. Considerable falling and/or blowing snow is occurring, reducing visibility to less then 1/4 of a mile.

7) Dangerous Wind Chill Warning...
Wind chill warnings are issued when the Wind chill of -20 degrees or colder are expected or occurring and:

Expected to last one hour or longer.
Wind speeds of 10 mph or more are expected or occurring.
Reference Wind Chill chart

8) Avalanche Warning...
Avalanche warnings are issued by the Northwest Avalanche Forecast Center, located in Seattle. These products are issued when there is a significant threat of avalanches in the Cascades and Olympics backcountry, possibly affecting mountain roadways and other high country interests.
[For more info, see the NW Avalanche Center's website]


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Additional Links of Interest...
NOAA's Weather Safety website
Preparedness for Winter Weather
Each local office may have historic storm data and photographs online (see office links below)

Check back tomorrow for Day 3 of our Winter Weather Awareness Week celebration!

NWS WWA: Winter Weather Safety and Terminology

We all know that winter is coming and that it's expected to be a quite stormy season this time around, but do you know any of the terminology and proper saftey rules during the winter season?
Todays Winter Weather Saftey and Terminology Monday at the National Weather Service of Portland and this week; as mentioned last weekend, we will be posting every day this week following Winter Weather Awareness Week with the National Weather Service.

Winter Weather Safety and Terminology via NWS of Portland:

Exposure to cold can cause frostbite or hypothermia, and become life-threatening. Infants and the elderly are the most susceptible. When a winter storm approaches, stay inside, or seek shelter if caught outdoors.

Other tips to follow to better protect you and others:

When using an alternate heat from a fireplace, wood stove or space heater, be sure to use fire safeguards and properly ventilate. Close off unneeded rooms in the building. Stuff towels or rags in cracks and under doors. Cover windows at night to minimize loss of heat through the windows. Eat and drink sufficient amounts of water. Food provides the body with energy for producing its own heat. Fluids prevent dehydration. Wear layers of loose fitting, lightweight and warm clothing. Remove layers to avoid overheating and perspiration and subsequent chill. Make sure pets have plenty of food, water and proper shelter from the elements.

If caught outdoors:

Find shelter immediately. Try to stay dry, and cover all exposed body parts. In no shelter is available, build a lean-to, windbreak, or a snow cave to protect yourself from the wind Build a fire for heat and to attract attention for rescue. Place rocks around the fire to absorb and reflect heat. Melt snow for drinking water. Avoid eating snow, as this will lower your body temperature.

If traveling:

This best way to avoid becoming stranded or stuck during a winter storm is to avoid travel during the storm. Stay informed on the current weather, forecasts and warnings. Obtain the latest warnings and forecasts from your NOAA Weather Radio, The National Weather Service website [ http://weather.gov ], or your favorite media news source. If you must travel, let someone else ( who is not traveling ) know of your travel plans.
Weatherize your vehicle now, before rough winter weather arrives. Make sure your vehicle safety set includes: adequate tires, chains, tow rope, sand or cat litter for traction, shovel, tool kit, windshield scraper and brush, battery cables, first aid kit, flashlight and extra batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag, extra clothes, waterproof matches, high-calorie snacks and an empty can to melt snow for drinking water.

If you become stranded while traveling:

STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE, and do not panic. If with other people, take turns sleeping. Run the motor every hour for about 10 minutes to maintain warmth, but keep window open a bit to prevent buildup of carbon monoxide. Make sure the exhaust pipe is not blocked by snow. Keep a brightly colored cloth tied to the antenna, in order for others to find your car. Exercise periodically by vigorously moving arms, legs, toes and fingers.

In the Mountains and higher Terrain:
Avalanches become a possibility during the winter, especially below steep slopes. Avalanches occasionally come down across roads, with little or no warning. Caution is advised when travelling along avalanche prone roads, especially after heavy snow has fallen or during periods of rapid snowmelt.

Roads which appear clear in the wintertime may actually be coated with a thin layer of ice, commonly called black ice. This nearly invisible ice layer can cause you to rapidly lose control of your vehicle. Black ice is most common during the nighttime hours into very early morning. If you detect black ice, reduce your speed!


Cold and its Effects on You:
Wind Chill: this is not the actual temperature, but rather how wind and cold combined feel on exposed skin. As the wind increases, heat is carried away from the body at an accelerated rate, thus lowering your body temperature. Animals are also affected by wind chill, but cars, plants and other objects are not.


Frostbite: this is damage to body tissue due to exposure to extreme cold. A wind chill of -20 degrees Fahrenheit will cause frostbite in just 30 minutes. Frostbite causes a loss of feeling and a white or pale appearance in extremities such as fingers, toes, ears and even the tip of your nose. If symptons are detected, get medical help immediately. If you must wait for help, slowly re-warm the affected areas. If the person is also showing signs of hypothermia, warm the body core before the extremities.

Hypothermia: this is a condition brought on when the body temperatures drops to less than 95 degrees Fahrenheit. It can kill. For those who survive, there are likely to be lasting kidney, liver and pancreas problems. Warning signs include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness and apparent exhaustion. Take the person's temperature, and if it is below 95F, seek medical care immediately.


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Remember, in times of hazardous winter weather, you can get all these vital NOAA/National Weather Service messages via NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite local media, or through NOAA's National Weather Service websites.

You can follow along by visiting the National Weather Services Winter Weather Areness Page: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/seasonal/wintermon.php

Record Attendance in the 2010 Winter Weather Meeting at OMSI Today!

NOTE: I will have my notes and thoughts on the meeting tomorrow so check back

Capacity crowd of 350 attend the 18th Annual “What Will the Winter Be Like” weather forecast meeting in Portland!



Portland, Oregon (October 16th 2010) – A standing room only / capacity crowd of 350 people descended on the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) Saturday morning in Portland. Attendees traveled from distances in excess of 100 miles in order to hear detailed forecasts for the upcoming winter from local and regional experts. Mark Nelsen, KPTV Fox-12 Chief Meteorologist gave a recap of last winter’s weather, followed by forecasts from Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland, George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon, Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon

and Kyle Dittmer, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Hydrologist-Meteorologist who presented his forecasts via telephone from Germany.


Forecast Synopsis


“With a moderate to strong La Nina well underway, the majority of experts at today’s annual forecast meeting predict a wetter and cooler than normal winter overall for Oregon. Snow pack in the Cascades is likely to be at or above normal this winter. In some analog (similar) years in the past, the Cascades have experienced near record snow amounts. George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon, says, “wet, wild and windy weather is in store for the coming winter.” Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon says, “this winter is likely to be markedly different from last year. Parsons went on to say, “I would be surprised if we made it through this winter without seeing at least one arctic air mass and low elevation snow event.” Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland says, “wet, wet, wet this winter.” Forecasters also noted that it has been 15 years since the last major windstorm to strike Oregon on December 12th 1995, which was also a La Nina winter that featured a record setting flood, arctic air and snow.


Detailed Presentations & Video Footage


* If you would like to download / view all of the forecasts in detail (.pdf format), please go to our chapter’s website at:
http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/Minutes/2010_10_16_Minutes.html


* If you have any issues with the above link, please use this alternate link to download the full length presentations (.pdf format). Please only use this alternate link if you have troubles with the chapter link above:
http://piercevideo.com/omsi.shtml


* Please feel free to use any of these short HD video clips if so desired. Please courtesy the Oregon AMS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJVDHrMCv2g



Please direct all post meeting inquiries to:

Bobby Corser, President, Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Phone: 971-563-9458 E-mail: bobbyamsprez@gmail.com



Steve Pierce, Vice President, Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Phone: 503-504-2075 E-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

Oregon AMS chapter web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

OMSI web site: http://www.omsi.edu/

Wet Weekend, Winter Weather Awareness and Report Severe Weather for Local Research!

Wow, we have a lot to talk about today regarding weather in the PacNW. I'll start off by mentioning that it was a very wet weekend, Sat-Sun Precipitation totals in McMinnville reached 1.07" total while places like Astoria received 3.42". A location in Washington (Cougar) received 7.96" of rain in October!! I have noticed that we are starting to take that weekend wet/weekday dry pattern here which is typical of early fall and spring.

Winter Weather Awareness Week Oct. 17th- 23rd via NWS of Portland.
Talking about all this rain, already, makes my email box fill up with emails on what we are looking at for this coming winter. The OMSI Winter Weather Meeting on the 16th at 10 AM will kick off the official start to the National Weather Services Winter Weather Awareness Week. McMinnville Weather has always supported NWS's goal of providing life saving tips and information regarding safety during our winter months here in the Pacific Northwest. To celebrate, next week I will dedicate a blog post every day that the Winter Weather Awareness Week has put up on that specific day, we'll discuss all the information and make sure everyone has it down. Click the link below for more information:
NWS Winter Weather Awareness Week

We also want to take the time and let folks know that we have officially finished the MCMW.com MWSRD (McMinnville Weather's Severe Weather Reporting System)on our front page. We want folks to bookmark the page and report all severe/storm damage incidents to this program, which we will use for future research projects as well as data sharing with the National Weather Service. Click the link below to continue reading more on this new feature.
MCMW.com's MWSRD Page

More to come.... --Grant

September MEI Breaks Records!

Via Steve Pierce, the newest MEI numbers have come out showing some pretty exciting numbers this time of the year! The MEI, which in "big" words, means: Multivariate ENSO Index.
We use the MEI to monitor the mutliple oceanic-atmospheric character of ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. This allows us to measure the intensity of the ENSO, whether its in a La Nina state or El Nino state. As for today, we are going into new territory. This is currently one of the strongest La Nina's since 1955 if you can belive that? Here's Steve's publication via email:

September MEI Sets New Record

For those who are interested, the September MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) reading was released today. It was a whopping -1.99 which is the lowest September MEI reading of all-time (1950-2010). It bested the following September readings ---

2010 -1.99
1975 -1.867
1955 -1.815
1973 -1.75
1988 -1.597

It is also the 3rd lowest monthly MEI reading ever recorded (1950-2010) for any month of the year. Only June and August of 1955 with -2.286 and -2.03 respectively were lower than last month. One could say that, as far as the MEI is concerned, this is now the strongest La Nina in 55 yrs (since 1955).

Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

Sources:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.mei_index.html

REMINDER: 2010 AMS Sponsored: What Will Winter Be Like? meeting at OMSI October 16th!

Remember folks; head out to OMSI on October 16th at 10 AM for the annual "What Will Winter Be Like?" meeting sponsored by the Oregon AMS and of course, OMSI. This meeting will offer insight from highly respected and talented professionals in the field of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate and even some Astrology (Sun Cycles)! This will be a good opportunity to get a consensus of what the scientist think will play role factors in this upcoming winter. They offer good explanations with great data, but also keep anything open when it comes to actually determining a prediction synopsis, with all the role factors stated included. As you know, or should know, these predictions should be used ONLY as a map (of guidance) outlining the current atmospheric state with regards to historical analogs saying what will most likely happen and point out events that we may be overdue for, and increased potential with the right atmospheric state. It’s impossible to say how much snow we will get in any given winter, all’s we can give you is either the increased risk and why, or lack of risk and why for any given winter. Just always remember to keep an open mind when determining a forecast, as well as historical knowledge of past events. Keep these factors in line, and keep things realistic, you should be successful. More info of the upcoming meeting you can find by clicking the link below, hope to see you all there!


http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/MeetingInfo/2010_10_16_Flyer.pdf


P.S.

For those who wont be able to attend due to work or any other situation, I’ll be posting notes the same day on the blog so you can check out the highlights.

Today, Showers, Tomorrow...Nice!

Well it sure has been a very wet month, but things are going to start warming up a little bit here in the next couple of days. We'll have some ridging once the cold front passes later today, that should make tomorrow and the weekend mostly dry. Sunday, we have a little disturbance try to make its way through, but for now should just be a chance of showers Sunday. By the way, I’m not so sure about breaking the all time record for September (precip wise) with 4.30"+. Looks like we may end the month a little drier.

Next week we'll be posting up some cool research articles, we're sure you'll also learn something from it, no, guaranteed you will defiantly learn something from it. Pretty interesting none the less so check back. Enjoy yourselves!

Update: 3.06", only need 1.29" to break ALL TIME September Record

UPDATE:

As mentioned yesterday in the blog, we were pretty confident that we would not be in danger of breaking the ALL TIME September Precipitation record set in 1986 of 4.30" at the PDX Airport. As of this morning, PDX has 3.02" of rain recorded, that would mean we only have 1.29" left to go to beat the record. After viewing the models, we notice that the initial past few runs, rounded out, show at least 1.50"-2.00" more before months end. We now belive that the all time record is at risk, and will be monitored. In La Nina years, this type of record breaking patterns should be more common then most other years not La Nina. We should expect more records to fall this coming season, but to what kinds of records is to be seen.

Wettest Septembers in NW Oregon, Are we beating records?

Thanks to Mr. Pierce and his data, we can go ahead and start looking at our wettest Septembers here in Oregon now that the fuacet has seemed to turn on just a tad. Below are the records for PDX Airport:

(Note: Years in Bold are most recent records within the last 10 years 2000-2010)

YEAR..... SEP
1986 .....4.30
1982 .....3.98
1945 .....3.96
1969 .....3.86
1941 .....3.58
1971 .....3.53
1977 .....3.33
1973 .....3.29
1948 .....3.28
1972 .....3.06
1996 .....3.05
1955 .....2.86
1959 .....2.81
1985 .....2.76
1944 .....2.73
1951 .....2.55
1968 .....2.20
1978 .....2.07
2007 .....2.04
1997 .....1.98
1981 .....1.86
1988 .....1.76
1979 .....1.75
1966 .....1.70
2005 .....1.70
2000 .....1.67
1949 .....1.66
1962 .....1.66
1964 .....1.61
1980 .....1.56
2002 .....1.54
1989 .....1.48
1984 .....1.46
1950 .....1.45
2009 .....1.40
1960 .....1.37
1995 .....1.31
1953 .....1.16
1946 .....1.15
1994 .....1.13
1956 .....1.12
1992 .....1.12
1970 .....1.10
1998 .....1.09
1947 .....1.06
1958 .....1.05
2004 .....1.03
2006 .....0.86
1954 .....0.85
2003 .....0.85
1967 .....0.76
1963 .....0.75
1976 .....0.73
2001 .....0.70
1961 .....0.64
1957 .....0.49
2008 .....0.48
1983 .....0.39
1990 .....0.34
1952 .....0.33
1987 .....0.30
1974 .....0.21
1999 .....0.10
1942 .....0.06
1943 .....0.06
1991 .....0.02
1965 .....0.01


The most recent year with the wettest September in the last 10 years is 2007 with 2.04" of rain. The current tally so far this month for PDX is 2.05" according to the NWS as of 8:43 AM Satursday. Obviously, we are already the wettest September in the last 10 years!

1. 2010.....2.05"
2. 2007.....2.04"
3. 2005.....1.70"
4. 2000.....1.67"
5. 2002.....1.54"
6. 2009.....1.40"
7. 2004.....1.03"
8. 2006.......86"
9. 2003.......85"
10.2001.......70"

Although, this September is proving to be the wettest in the last 10 years, we are pretty confident that most extreme rainfall records will stand. You can obviously start feeling the effects of that moderate to strong developing La Nina now!

Mark Nelsen Shows Support for Tower Development

We have two major names here in the local weather market now that back up the idea of installing temp/wind sensors on a few towers in Central Willamette Valley. Of course, we have posted Tyree Wilde's suggestions, here's KPTV's Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsens thought's:

Having more towers outfitted with temp/wind sensors would be quite helpful in wintertime here in the Pacific Northwest. I would consider the current DEQ sensors on the KPTV transmission tower at 1000'/1400'/1800' as one of the top 3 pieces of "critical" information we use during snow/ice storms here in the Portland/Vancouver Metro area. Surface observations and radar would be the other two. Having another one or two in the mid-Valley would be very useful and relatively cheap (compared to a sounder?). A good investment here.

Mark Nelsen

Chief Meteorologist

KPTV/KPDX Television - Portland


More updates to follow!

McMinnville Weather.com Submits 2011 Year Budget Estimates for Projects

September 10th, 2010 is the deadline to submit budget estimates and proposals for budget year 2011 through NOAA. Im happy to announce our first budget estimation for a few projects we have in store next year under non profit (non 501c3) status. 2011 MCMW.com Budget Estimate's:

Sounding Tower.....................$35,000.00
(Equipment and Installation)
Research Vehicle.....................$30,000.00
(Vehicle and Equipment)
Observational Research Projects.....................$5,000.00
(Includes Equipment, Travel and Staff)
Website Upgrades/Maintinance.....................$500.00
(Mainly Technical)

Total Budget.....................$70,500.00

We will know by January 31st, 2011 if we were chosen to be funded for that year. This is exciting news none the less, and we are making progress at our goal at making more accurate predictions for the future! More details we be posted on the web site at the end of the month so stay tuned! --Grant L.

Coldest Summer in 17 Years, Really?

As some of you might have read by now via KGW/ The Columbian..etc Our good ol' Steve Peirce of the Oregon AMS released his article regarding this summers very odd and cool weather patterns. Im not shocked one bit by these claims, though, Steve did bring up some of his mistakes regarding the data he used in regards to historical Vancouver weather station data. Either other way, it's one for the record book, and we may be in for some cooler times come winter. Can Anyone say LA NINA!!


Coldest Portland Summer In 17 Years

Issued: September 1st 2010 - 8:05am

* Note - Permission is granted to quote or reuse the information below, with credit given to author.

"Portland just finished its last full month of summer 2010, and with it comes the distinction of being the coldest "meteorological" summer (June, July & August) in the past 17 years. The last time Portland experienced a summer this chilly was in 1993. This was the exact opposite of last summer, which was the warmest summer on record at the Portland International Airport (1941-2010). This was also the first summer since summer of 1976 (nearly 35 yrs) that all three summer months (June, July and August) recorded back-to-back below normal average monthly temperatures. In fact, Portland has now been below average for five back-to-back months, beginning in April and continuing through August. Either way you slice it, it was a chilly summer by Portland standards. Summer 2010 will also be known as the summer that featured large temperature swings from one extreme to the other, along with morning low clouds that persisted longer than normal."

Here are some additional highlights from the summer of 2010 ---
* 10th coldest June on record at the Portland Airport. * Single wettest June ever recorded (1941-2010). More than four and a quarter inches of rain fell.
* The latest date in history to finally reach 80 degrees for the first time in a given calendar year. That was done on June 11th of this year. The old record was June 9th.

Here are the top 15 coldest summers on record at the Portland Airport (1941-2010) ---

Year Jun Ave Jul Ave Aug Ave Summer Ave
1954 57.9 63.0 63.3 61.4
1964 58.7 64.5 63.7 62.3
1963 59.9 63.0 66.2 63.0
1955 60.7 63.4 65.5 63.2
1953 58.6 66.2 65.6 63.5
1957 62.0 65.5 64.5 64.0
1956 59.0 68.0 65.4 64.1
1976 60.4 67.2 65.5 64.3
1962 61.6 66.4 65.9 64.6
1949 61.7 65.9 66.5 64.7
1993 62.5 64.3 68.5 65.1
1989 64.2 65.5 66.0 65.2
1980 60.7 68.9 66.4 65.3
2010 60.4 67.5 68.1 65.3
1952 60.3 68.0 67.9 65.4


Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

George Taylor's Blog!

Check out George Taylors blog and his recent post on the Columbus Day Storm of 1962! Later in September I will be a guest on his blog, so stay tuned! Very good and detailed material..must read!

http://appliedclimate.wordpress.com/

Sounding Tower Ranks # 1 in NWS voting!

Great news!!

We are currently number 1 in rankings/votes for our idea to the NWS about adding sounding towers through out the area for better winter forecasts. We currently lead 2ND place by little over 100 votes, so keep on voting guys!

A lot of people have also been discussing why our idea ranks 1, since it's not really helping the NWS as a whole. Our idea ranks number one because I have awesome support with the local weather community and I have been working on getting the word out. Obviously, if there isn't a idea out there that ranks ahead of this one, then there must be some issues with some really good ideas nationally.

I'm not too worried though since I was advised through a NWS representative to go ahead and push forward with the idea by submitting it to their idea data base. Under collaboration, due to the fact that this is an idea as a whole and not just the NWS. I would like to oversee the projects if they get funded and make sure everything goes up the way it has been drawn up. So collaboration made the most sense.

To vote or keep up with our idea at the NWS, click here:
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445

Thanks again for every ones support on the idea, looking forward to having it reviewed!

Is There A Return Cycle To The Truly "BIG" Pacific Northwest Arctic Blasts?

NOTE: Steve Pierce wrote this Article!


Is There A Return Cycle To The Truly "BIG" Pacific Northwest Arctic Blasts?



"I was doing some quick number crunching recently and could not help but ponder the idea that after 20 years, we may be overdue for an "old school" type of Pac NW arctic blast, perhaps this coming winter. Why? Several factors. First, I continue to look (as do many folks lately) at the uncanny alignment of several major indices (PDO, ENSO, MEI, NPI, GLAAM, AO) lately pointing towards what could be a "greater than normal" chance of seeing at least one major Pac NW arctic outbreak this winter. Second, could there be a "return cycle" to these events? If there was, perhaps this winter will provide the proof? Third, a sun that continues at record low output levels for the third year in a row which could prove to be the "wild card" this winter."

Here are the event dates (1940-present) that occurred when all four of the following criteria were met;

1. High temperatures below 20 at PDX
2. Lows in the single digits at PDX
3. Strong east wind outflow from the gorge at PDX
4. At least 5" of snow at PDX

Event Dates Date High Low Snow Depth
12/31/1968 19 9 9
2/2/1950 18 -3 13
1/31/1950 16 -2 15
2/3/1989 15 9 6
12/30/1968 14 8 5

Return Frequency Distribution Jan 1950 to Dec 1968 = 19 years Dec 1968 to Feb 1989 = 20 years Feb 1989 to Winter 2010/11 = 22 years (Please see note #1 and #2 below).

Honorable Mentions
Note 1 - December 1990's arctic blast was close to being on this list, but it lacked minimum snow amount (5") at PDX.
Note 2 - We would be exactly 20 yrs from Dec 1990 to this coming winter had Dec 1990 met the minimum snow criteria.
Note 3 - February 1989 was the last time PDX recorded a single digit low temp.
Note 4 - Only 10 days in Portland Airport history (1940-present) recorded high temperatures below 20 for daytime highs.

The dates below get an honorable mention for meeting almost all of the criteria above.

12/20/1990
12/31/1978
12/18/1964
12/17/1964

Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

Tyree Wilde of NWS's and Dr. Rob's Statement Regarding Tower Plans

We are finding more and more support and reason's for trying to set up sounding towers through out NW Oregon Coast Range in the name of accurate winter forecasts, here's the NWS's opinion through Tyree and Dr. Robs statement. Dr. Rob is a highly educated and respectable buddy of mine on the weather email list, he offers a lot to the local weather community.

Tyree's Take (NWS of Portland):
Grant,
Temperature sensors at 500, 1000 and 1,500 feet (or tower top) would be very beneficial to help obtain freezing level information and help with rain/snow decisions during the winter months. As for wind, I suggest mounting the wind instrument at 10 meters (~33 ft), which is the standard height we place our wind instruments. That way, the wind data is useful to compare to other locations.
Tyree
Tyree Wilde
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA's National Weather Service
Portland, OR


Dr. Rob's View:
I believe it is imperative for the placement of two to three more towers located along the Coast Range. A temperature sensor, anemometer, and sounding reading would be highly vital if they were implemented. These should be placed roughly south of Forest Grove to just north of Salem. In the event of a southerly wind event/storm it would be exceedingly helpful to understand the winds below 950mb to get an idea how strong the winds are occurring below the 2,000' plateau and whether the temperatures are rising due to warm air advection which may result in improved mixing. These factors can be used to guesstimate wind speeds down into the Willamette Valley as the south/southwesterly winds descend and/or are mixed towards the surface ahead of a frontal system. Currently the Rockhouse1 RAWS is the only observation in 1,500' to 2,000' elevation to use as a measure for windy to high wind conditions in the Willamette Valley roughly from Salem northward. In past seasons when the wind gusts reach 70mph at Rockhouse1 RAWS gusts exceeding 50mph are shortly to follow into the Salem area. If we had such information farther north it would help greatly with wind speed projections into the western Willamette Valley areas for locations such as McMinnville, Newberg, Gaston, Sherwood, etc.

On the other side of the coin let's discuss the impacts additional towers and sounding, temperature, dewpoint, and wind readings would have on understanding the temperature column below 2,000'. Since the northern Willamette Valley has various micro-climates and when experiencing Wintry weather the Gorge is the main player in terms of the depth of cold air dome over the Portland/Vancouver area, wet bulb effect, evaporative cooling, to name a few. If such towers were in place we would have a much better understanding of the depth of the cold layer, the extent in which is lies to the south and southwest, whether or not it is being eroded from warmer pacific air, and to determine if the Cities of the Willamette Valley are going to experience snow, sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, or just a cold rain. As of right now the main instruments used for cold layer depth are the KPTV Tower temperatures. That is just not enough information to help see or take a slice of the temperature column to our south/southwest.

For all of the reasons I have explained and discussed above I think it is important and should be a goal of constructing these towers.

- Dr. Rob

We need your Votes for our NWS Idea!

We are currently looking for your votes for the NWS's idea's page. We offered the idea of adding tower readings in the Coast Range around KMMV and NW Oregon to help better advance our predictions on winter storm events. Click the link below and vote now!
http://nwsstratplan.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Add-Sounding-Towers-in-KMMV--Central-W.-Valley-/71174-9445
Big THANKS from McMinnville Weather.com!
--Grant

Are we in for a Wild Winter? Steve Pierce thinks so!

Update: NOAA Says La Nina In Full Swing Now 2:30pm Thursday, August 5th 2010

NOAA issued it's latest update today, which indicates that La Nina will continue to strengthen this coming fall and winter. You can read the entire NOAA update at the link below, along with my personal thoughts on the impact to our area below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html



La Nina = Portland / Vancouver Could See A Wild Ride This Winter
* Note - The views presented below are my personal assessments. I am not associated with NOAA. Permission is granted to quote or reuse the information below, with credit given to author.

Headlines
"Get ready. Mother nature has decided to toss us a La Nina curve-ball, which could equate to a wild ride for the Pacific Northwest this winter. Last winter was dominated by an El Nino which directed much of the colder and wetter weather away from the Pacific Northwest. This coming winter may not be as lucky. Opposite of an El Nino known as La Nina, is marked by colder than normal ocean temperatures along the equator that wax and wane on average of every five years or so. These fluctuations help steer the jet stream across the United States during the northern hemisphere winter. However, the devil may be in the details this year. The current La Nina episode is not only the second event in just the past three years, but also shows signs of being just as strong as the last. This year's La Nina also came on very quickly, which may have contributed to what was a dismal start to summer, with record setting rain and cold weather in both May and June. The Portland airport has only reached 90 degrees or higher four times this summer which is well below normal. This summer has also been marked with a greater than normal number of cloudy mornings before finally see sunshine in the afternoon. This has also helped keep high temperatures down this summer west of the cascades.

La Nina Can Be Wild
The previous La Nina lasted from 2007 through 2008. During that event, the coast suffered through a prolonged wind storm not seen there in decades. Winds were clocked at more than 125mph at several coastal location from Lincoln City north to the southern Washington coast and stayed at or above hurricane force in some locations for more than 36 hours. Record setting floods struck western Washington that winter as well. In December of 2008, the Portland airport received the most snow in December history (1940-present), along with its whitest Christmas on record. Nearly 10" was on the ground over Christmas, smashing any previous records held. Winter of 2008/2009 went on to be the snowiest in Portland since 1968/1969 with 24" and 34" respectively.

This Year's La Nina Is Different
This years La Nina is also occurring at a very interesting time when two other "x-factors" may be coming into play as well. X-factor #1, widely known as the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which oscillates every 25-30 years has flipped back to the cold phase in the last few years. The PDO is essentially a method of tracking sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. The PDO phase can also have an impact on jet stream patterns specific to the Pacific Northwest. A rare weather "treat" is when the cold phase PDO is coupled with a global La Nina. These two phenomenon, when combined have been known to bring the Pacific Northwest some of its wildest winters, with plenty of snow, especially in the mountains. The Pacific Northwest last saw a prolonged cold phase PDO signal from roughly 1950-1975. X-factor #2 is that all of this is occurring at the same time as the sun continues to rest in a deep solar minimum, not seen in the last 100+ years. The sun naturally fluctuates in the amount of solar output every 11 years, in what is referred to as the "solar cycle." The last solar cycle hit bottom in 2007, as scheduled, then abruptly stayed at very low levels ever since. It has yet to return to expected levels nearly three years into what should be a pronounced upswing of the next cycle. This is by far the single x-factor that has many forecasters wondering what effect this may have in the months and years to come. The last time the Pacific Northwest saw all three of these factors come into play (La Nina, Negative PDO Phase and Solar Minimum) at the same time was the fall and winter of 1955/1956. The result was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in Portland since records began at the airport in 1940.

Bottom Line
The chances for seeing above normal snowfall and colder than normal temperatures, coupled with at least one potent Pacific storm that could bring high winds across the region this coming winter appears at this point to be trending higher than normal, based on these factors. However, there is still plenty of time to refine things, so get out there and enjoy summer while it lasts.

Steve Pierce
Vice President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
503-504-2075 (Portland)
e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

Accuweather 2010/11 Winter Forecast: Get ready for a wild winter!

According to Accuweather's Joe Bastardi; recently released this morning, he predicts a pretty cold and snowy winter for the NW. It's great to get folks from the east coast's take on a coming winter, and to be honest, it's been a long time since I seen a map like that for the NW from an east coast guy! To be honest though, I can see where he is coming from with current SST's and other data at low readings regarding La Nina. It will be quite interesting, but you can check his forecast out at the link below: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp

2010 Winter Predictions Starting to Appear Tuesday

We will have our first peak on other mets around the country on their take on this coming winter, what they see, and what kind of factors that will play an important role this coming season. Tuesday, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will release his Winter Forecast, I will have that posted on the blog as well as my take. I will try to get George Taylors predictions this year up as well..those are always a great read.

At the end of September, I will release my "Official" 2010/2011 Winter Weather Predictions posted on McMinnville Weather.com. I usually wait to the very last second possible, with regards to ever changing numbers and atmospheric conditions that give us certain clues. More disccusions to follow this week.

2008/09 Winter 2nd All Time Snowiest for McMinnville!

As some of this may be a bit surprising, I had recently did my research thanks to NOAA's climate data (which has data for McMinnville all the way back in the 1800's!!!) and found out that our winter 2 years ago, was 2nd all time snowiest for the area since 1950!! Here's the numbers:

McMinnville’s Top 10 Snowiest Winters:
1. 48.5” 1950
2. 27.8” 2008
3. 24.2” 1943
4. 24.0” 1920
5. 23.4” 1937
6. 23.3” 1971
7. 21.7” 1949
8. 20.7” 1917
9. 19.5” 1960
10. 17.1” 1965

I also find that March of 1951 receieved 23.3" of Snow, the most ever for any March of course, but wow, I couldn't have imagined getting a storm like the one we saw in December of 08, in March! I've also found our annual percentage on any given winter to see snow/snowfall, its 75% dead on. Based on our winters i've experienced with all my time living here (22 years) i'd say 75% is a very accurate number in those terms. So much interesting data to go through, i'll post more when I find more!
--Grant
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=snow

McMinnville Coast Range Tower

Today, I will be explaining some of my intentions on developing a weather tower on the existing High Heaven Tower that sits 6 miles west of McMinnville at 1,742 ft in elevation. The purpose of such a tower would to help with wind and snow events. There would be temp/wind sensors placed at a 500 FT level, 1,000 ft level and top of the tower at 1,742 ft, this will allow us to find the snow level and figure out whether or not the upper air column on this side of the valley is cold enough to support snowfall. This would prevent unexpected events such as the December, 29th, 2009 Surprise Snow Storm, which could have easily been avoidable if we had monitoring stations set at certain elevations on this side of the valley. The only monitoring buffer we have for the valley is the KPTV temp towers, which is not sufficient enough for the whole Willamette valley.

Of course, this is all still in the developing phase, I still have a lot of discussions with Yamhill County (who owns the area) and looking for the National Weather Service to sponsor this and donate the needed equipment. I'm a firm believer that if we set this tower up, we are moving a step closer to better handling our winter storms and set ourselves up for more accurate forecasts in the future. This is just ONE step closer to that. More info to come...

(UPDATED!) The NWS does not Represent Yamhill County

Update 9:00 AM Sunday: I got word from a very respected Met at the National Weather Service (Tyree Wilde) that they do use my observation data, and that the storm reports are put together by other people within the orginzation who can do a better job with developing the reports. This answers some questions, and I appreciate actually getting a response in regards to these issues. Thank you Tryee for putting up with me on occasion! --Grant

I think it's safe to say that the National Weather Service of Portland does not care about Yamhill County, more specifically, McMinnville. In their most recent warnings, they actually went as far to start leaving McMinnville and any represntation of Yamhill County completely out of their warning forecast's now. Also, they constantly and consitantly ignore my data, and other Yamhill County spotter data with regards to cities closer to the Portland Metro area...example: Say that we are all in the same Snow event, as December 29th, 2009's case, Forest Grove, closer to Portland and next door to Hillsbororo received 5.5" of snow and was represented the most snow in the metro. That was FALSE, they completely missed reports coming out of Yamhill County, places around the area got as close as 6" of snow...more than Forest Grove. Yamhill county in general received more snowfall than Forest Grove and yet, the whole county was ignored. Simply put, NWS does not care about Yamhill County! They constantly never give me any respect for any of my work and dedication to weather in NW Oregon. They think that I have to go to a NWS sponsored event to be considered legit as a spotter, well I got news for them. I'm a lot smarter than most of all their spotters, I'm more dedicated, and I have over 13 years in experience in observing and submitting data, the right way. Most of my education comes from my very own research and dedication in learning everything I can possible to better help weather forecast and research. Also, i've took a lot of education through the AMS (American Meteorological Society) and garnered experienced with other high profiled mets (Mark Nelsen, Jim Little, George Taylor). I will continue to do what I do, and will always dedicated my time for Yamhill County and represent Yamhill County the way it needs to be represented. You have my back on that! --Grant I continue to learn everyday, and that will never stop.

Heat Wave Starts Tomorrow!

Well, we may not know exactly how hot it will be getting but we do know for sure that we will be above 90+ for at least 5-6 days strait. Starting Tuesday, and ending Sunday? To those who have missed the bulletin, summer was not canceled this year to ones surprise. The unusually wet May and June will seem like a fair trade after this week. The one thing that will make this particular Heat Wave feel a lot more hotter than it really is, is the fact that that we will be going from the upper 60's to the mid 90's without any gradual warm up. Although Tuesday is only forecasted into the 80's you will really feel the heat on Wednesday. Stay hydrated and stay tuned to any important weather developments as they come!

Yamhill County Weather Media Reccomendation

For those folks who are confused on who to turn on to for local media during weather events for Yamhill County, I have a simple recommendation for you. KPTV Fox-12 Oregon is as local as you are going to get for weather updates and other local weather issues. I personally only use the National Weather Service and KPTV for posting observations for McMinnville area, so those are the two more "official"/ accurate in weather terms for this area. I have a keen "professional" relationship with Mark Nelsen (Head Meteorologist for KPTV) as well as Tyree Wildree of the National Weather Service here in Portland. This allows me to comfortably say that McMinnville Weather.com and I (Grant LeBlanc) are the main spotters for the area. So thats 3 options for information; Directly from me on McMinnville Weather.com, TV Media (Fox 12 Oregon), and the Government through The National Weather Service of Portland. If you go to any of these sites/ media, you should be in good hands and know what to expect for the most part, again, it's as local as your gonna get here in Yamhill County. Hope this helps! --Grant LeBlanc

Summer Updates and Developments!

Ahh Summer has finally set in here in the Great Pacific Northwest, and what a better time to kick off new developments for next winter. Starting in October, i'll be providing a winter forecast, as well as others. I will also be creating winter contests, hopefully maybe intertwine with some of the contest's held by AMS members in the past few years. I also want more interaction, but this will take a lot of time and patience, we currently have discussions in KPTV weather blogs and other web forums most use, so im not sure how that would work yet. Im not trying to take anything away from anyone but to help develope a better and more informational and scientific approach to the local weather community here in NW Oregon SW Washington. My plan is to create a community of local scientist who invest their time and resources in researching the weather here, climate change, how that will affect us, better ways to predict winter events and everything in between. I want to offer a place for them to show off their findings and articles, and allow people to find those articles even years later. This will be benificial in the best of ways in the future of weather forecasting here in NW Oregon. Site will also undergo the usual yearly maintinance as well as logo development, in which we are looking at redesigning the logo that we think is outdated and does not represent what im trying to do clearly. More updates to come this month! Thank you to all of you who read this blog and continue to support the cause and community, as well as this blog! Sincerely, Grant LeBlanc Head Researcher