Too Warm for Snow!

Looking at this latest NAM Soundings for McMinnville (the skew chart to your left), things will be just too warm for any kind of frozen event for Tuesday as well..so any discussion of snow out there for tomorrow is now officially shot dead, and if you do want to see some of the white stuff then head to the cascades/gorge. Short post today, but I thought i'd lay that to rest before it even had a chance, take care!

The Thing I have Against East Coast Snow....

Ok, so I have a couple people interested in my negative attitude towards east coast winters and the way media handles them. Let's start off by these observations: In almost every winter, or every other winter, the east coast averages 2+ Nor' Easters a winter. In every winter, the media (such as accuweather, weather channel and CNN)start their headlines, the same, every single time..either as "Historic Nor' Easter on the way" or Blizzard. The thing that really bugs me is, you can't have a historic Nor’ Easter every single time you get one. The east coast has had over hundreds and hundreds of these events and the ones in the 1800's would beat any of these Nor’ Easters today, any day! Now, I understand the human value, and understand these storms..historic or not are major problems and cause deaths and injuries every year. But please stop considering these storms every single time; to be that, of historic, unless it really is a historic event. Things you haven’t ever seen or seen in the 1800's, that would be historic in my eyes. Media needs to stop freaking people out every time a Nor' Easter comes through, regions should have emergency systems and equipment systems implemented to handle such events...more so than Oregon would ever need to. You guys get these every year, so suck it up and handle it like our forefathers did. They will continue to happen, and to see a Historic event in a Nor' Easter is more rare than the Blazers winning the NBA Championship. Ok that may have been a bit over exaggerated, but you get the point. Take care!

Frozen Precip Tonight??

There's been some discussion on a possible frozen precipitation event (I honestly wouldn't even call it that at this point) but none the less, here's what I believe will happen later today/tonight with regards to this "possibility" (Freezing Drizzle/Sleet). I honestly don't think any of us will see anything. So many factors working against the idea of this kind of event, for one..split jet, those clouds are pulling apart quickly and I'm sure the moisture is stretching and evaporating quickly. For two, evaporative cooling would last a split second, before matching up with temps and rising for the rest of the day as moisture approaches (if it does) and for three...850 mb temps are WAY too warm, I don't see snow as one bit of a possibility at all unless your right there near the Gorge, even so, it would not last long before switching over. All in all, tomorrow I'd expect clouds and a possibility of a sprinkle or two..this has been the case most of fall, it may be cold enough but either we get a warm southerly push to moderate things right before precip or the precip never even makes it into the area. None the less, hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, take care!

Chance for some flakes tonight/tomorrow, then dry and cool...

Well, it looks like we have a decent shot to see some of our first flakes tonight and tomorrow morning. Although it would be short lived and little if ANY accumulation at this point, would be cool anyways, since xmas is right around the corner! After Tuesday, things look cool still, but dry! So be expecting a dry xmas with highs near 40. I will make another post later today, probably in the evening, so check back for updates! By the way, to think about it, I got scolded two days ago by my weather buddies saying nothing will happen, so we’ll see.

Snow Showers Possible Next Week before Xmas!

Looking at the 12z GFS that had just came out, literally 5 minutes ago..it looks like the trend of cooler 850mb temps and increasing precip amounts seems to hint at a possible low level snowfall around Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Models have been consistent with shoving a low southward from N. Washington, which had tapped into some modified arctic air as it slides south. This will also help pull some east wind gradients into our area. This is something I will have to keep an eye on for you folks, since it's getting real close to Christmas. I will NOT get into any type of detail until a day out, I reserve that right. Stay Tuned!

Upgrades to Weather Forecasting Models!

Well, it looks like there is finally hope for the GFS and Euro forecasting models after all. Here's a quote from NCEP: "EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 15 2009...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE SEVERAL COMPONENTS OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/." Now with the upgrades, many people are wondering what exactly is going to change? We'll the main answer easily is that the newer forecasting models are at higher resolutions, and thus, being able to pick up on trends and patterns much more accurate than the original GFS output. Obviously, the GFS are doing very horrible this year, seems like most runs are much more confused than ever before. So picking up trends and patterns as of now, is really inaccurate and difficult past 5 days. Even a day out I’ve seen the GFS still flip flopping on occasion this month. We will just have to wait and see when they release more upgrades!

Forecast Bust's And Xmas Teases!

Well, first and foremost..what a horrible job by most mets around the area..including myself with the possible transition event we were supposed to get that never materialized. The thing with these kinds of events, it's hard to tell what it will do since we really don't have any towers to measure a good amount of the upper air column, to determine just how moderated we got before the moisture arrived. These will always be tricky forecast's, and very doubtful anyone gets it right in those situations..but that's why we are researching the weather and trying to figure out how to better forecast these events, personally, I’d rather be safe than sorry. As for the future, how about Christmas teasers with cold arctic air? Last couple model runs, even though they flip flop every other run, are showing the possibility of a cold Christmas and maybe some snow. Of course this is way too far out still to be any accurate, but, it deserve s a close eye and some respect due to some constancy already and how the models previously reacted to our first cold snap. Will be keeping my eye on this trend, as for today, enjoy the constant rain! We need it though due to our dry start to the month.

7* Degrees in McMinnville and Co. Snow next?

WOW! Just amazing really, 7* degrees for a low? If I remember correctly, the last time I remember ever seeing temperatures like that here in McMinnville was in 1998, and the low was 7. So by far this is the coldest arctic air intrusion since 1998 and for some places, 1972. Here's a bigger look at lows around the area, courtesy of AMS Executive Councilor Steve Pierce (stevejpierce@comcast.net) NEW RECORD SET AT PDX TODAY! TAKE YOUR PICK! I just looked over record temperature data and Portland's low temperature last night (as of 10am ASOS readings) of 12 degrees is a new record in several ways! Here are the details --- * Coldest Dec 9th in Portland history!!! Old record was 15 set in 1972 at PDX (records from 1941-2009) and 16 set in 1919 at Downtown Portland (records from 1871-2009). * Coldest night in almost 40 years (Dec 8th 1972 was 8 degrees), this early in cold season. * 10th Coldest December night in Portland Airport history, 1941-2009. * Coldest night (of any month) at PDX since December 1998 (11 years)! * 5th coldest December night since 1972 (almost 40 years)! Note - It was the 3rd coldest December night since 1972 if you just look at raw numbers and include the other 12 degree nights that tie today's low. PDX's coldest December nights (1941-2009) as measured at the Airport (PDX) --- 12/16/1964 6 12/17/1964 7 12/30/1968 8 12/8/1972 8 12/31/1968 9 12/18/1964 11 12/23/1998 11 12/23/1983 12 12/21/1990 12 12/9/2009 12 Here are some metro area lows today as of the 10am ASOS readings --- HIO: 7 PDX: 12 VUO: 10 TTD: 18 SLE: 10 EUG: 7 Steve Pierce Oregon AMS Now, this is where things get really really tricky. We have models on consensus with bringing in some moisture this weekend. This is what needs to happen, we need any low movement to move south of the area, keeping the warmer 850mb temps at bay, while creating some offshore flow and providing moisture. Now if the low was further north, this is how it would go: Snow, Freezing Rain, Then Rain and moderated temperatures. But if the first scenario falls through, it would be all snow, followed by another possible arctic wave for early next week. We should have a good idea Thursday Night/Friday Morning! I honestly think, speaking from experience, that this will be a snow event. But we'll see so stay tuned!

COOOOLLLDDDDD!!!

Well, seems like everything is falling into place as models projected a while back. One thing to note though, no snow! And I really don't see any great chance for snow in the near future either. I’m assuming by the time moisture does eventually make it here, the upper atmosphere would have warmed, and may start off as a freezing rain event, then to rain around Saturday/Sunday. Now, obviously things can change from today here on through the weekend, so it's worth keeping an eye on. I've noticed outdoor water features are now starting to freeze over, by tomorrow morning things should look really cool. I’m hoping we can get some pictures in with this event. Stay warm, safe and check back this week for more updates. Enjoy the Arctic Air!

Updating Content...

Today, I issued a weather bulletin (on the front page)for the well advertised cold snap heading our way this weekend. That will be updated often, and I will spill all the information through that media. Thanks to Galen, he was able to go through most of the web site and point out my typos and just flat out silly mistakes. I will be going through most of the day updating the content, hopefully it will be much easier to read. Civil War Forecast: Mostly clear, windy..temps from start to finish 42 F - 35 F..it will be chilly so dress up warm.

Arctic Air to Settle In This Weekend!

I wanted to wait untill we got closer to go all in on an arctic event. It looks like Saturday, cold air starts making its way down, with heights bottoming out around -15 -16 850mb heights around Sunday evening. Models show the cold air in place probally untill Friday of next week, as for snow..no good signs of moisture right now..but we are monitoring some ending events later on that may start off as snow and/or freezing rain. Very exciteing indeed, im worn out from all the model riding this past week, will post more thoughts tomorrow! --Grant