The Wait and See Game!

This is the most annoying part of weather for anyone that knows what their doing. Now that I had time to anaylize the 12z GFS, models are showing some consistancy now into a very cool event starting December 4th and beyond! What makes this a very difficult pattern to partake, is the details of course and how cold exactly it will get. So all's we can go by right now is, we know something cold is coming..but how cold and for how long and what about some snow? What makes me even more excited than normal is the fact that this time last year, models started picking up the Arctic Event that plagued the NW most of December. It's def. something to keep watching and as more details come out, you will be the first to know!! Here's some eye candy for KMMV (McMinnville Sounding) GFS 12z: 132 Fri 12/04 00Z 41 ° 47 ° 41 ° 42 ° NW 4 NW 22 0.01 0.00 541 561 -4 ° -16 ° 1025 86 % 135 Fri 12/04 03Z 40 ° 42 ° 40 ° 38 ° NW 4 NW 25 0.00 0.00 539 560 -5 ° -15 ° 1026 95 % 138 Fri 12/04 06Z 39 ° 42 ° 38 ° 38 ° NW 4 NNW 27 0.00 0.00 539 561 -5 ° -15 ° 1028 75 % 141 Fri 12/04 09Z 36 ° 37 ° 36 ° 35 ° NNW 2 NNW 29 0.00 0.00 538 560 -5 ° -16 ° 1028 77 % 144 Fri 12/04 12Z 39 ° 39 ° 36 ° 36 ° NNW 2 NNW 27 0.00 0.00 536 559 -6 ° -16 ° 1028 86 % 147 Fri 12/04 15Z 38 ° 38 ° 37 ° 35 ° N 4 N 29 0.00 0.00 537 559 -4 ° -16 ° 1028 94 % 150 Fri 12/04 18Z 39 ° 40 ° 35 ° 34 ° NNE 7 NNE 27 0.00 0.00 537 559 -3 ° -17 ° 1028 79 % 153 Fri 12/04 21Z 41 ° 41 ° 39 ° 31 ° NNE 7 NE 27 0.00 0.00 537 559 -3 ° -18 ° 1027 18 % 156 Sat 12/05 00Z 38 ° 41 ° 38 ° 34 ° NNE 7 NE 22 0.00 0.00 537 559 -3 ° -17 ° 1027 10 % 159 Sat 12/05 03Z 33 ° 37 ° 33 ° 31 ° NNE 9 NE 22 0.00 0.00 536 558 -4 ° -18 ° 1028 1 % 162 Sat 12/05 06Z 31 ° 37 ° 31 ° 33 ° NE 9 ENE 18 0.00 0.00 536 558 -5 ° -19 ° 1029 0 % 165 Sat 12/05 09Z 31 ° 31 ° 31 ° 26 ° NE 9 ENE 22 0.00 0.00 536 558 -5 ° -20 ° 1029 0 % 168 Sat 12/05 12Z 29 ° 31 ° 29 ° 24 ° NE 9 ENE 27 0.00 0.00 536 559 -5 ° -20 ° 1029 1 % 171 Sat 12/05 15Z 28 ° 29 ° 28 ° 22 ° NE 9 E 27 0.00 0.00 537 560 -4 ° -20 ° 1030 2 % 174 Sat 12/05 18Z 33 ° 34 ° 28 ° 21 ° NE 11 E 31 0.00 0.00 537 560 -4 ° -19 ° 1030 2 % 177 Sat 12/05 21Z 39 ° 39 ° 34 ° 21 ° ENE 11 E 34 0.00 0.00 538 560 -4 ° -18 ° 1028 1 % 180 Sun 12/06 00Z 36 ° 39 ° 34 ° 24 ° NE 9 ENE 31 0.00 0.00 538 560 -4 ° -18 ° 1027 1 % Max Temp Min Temp 850 Temp Max 850 Temp Min 500 Height Max 500 Height Min Thickness Max Thickness Min 53 °F 28 °F 10 °C -6 °C 574 558 554 536 TOTAL PRECIP: 0.18 " and Convective: 0 " 192-384 hour forecasts (2.5 degree resolution): FCST Hour Valid Time Max Temp Min Temp Td 10m Wind mph 850mb Wind mph Total Precip(") Conv. Precip(") 500-1000 THKNS 500mb Height 850mb Temp °C 500mb Temp °C MSLP mb Total Cloud Cover 192 Sun 12/06 12Z 42 ° 38 ° 40 ° ENE 20 NE 27 0.00 0.00 541 562 -2 ° -18 ° 1026 3 % 204 Mon 12/07 00Z 41 ° 37 ° 36 ° ENE 16 NE 20 0.00 0.00 541 561 -2 ° -19 ° 1025 3 % 216 Mon 12/07 12Z 41 ° 37 ° 33 ° ENE 13 NNE 16 0.00 0.00 542 562 -1 ° -20 ° 1025 5 % 228 Tue 12/08 00Z 42 ° 36 ° 39 ° NE 18 NE 25 0.00 0.00 537 556 -1 ° -21 ° 1023 4 % 240 Tue 12/08 12Z 42 ° 37 ° 40 ° ENE 25 ENE 27 0.00 0.00 532 553 -3 ° -25 ° 1026 3 % 252 Wed 12/09 00Z 40 ° 37 ° 38 ° ENE 20 ENE 27 0.00 0.00 537 557 -1 ° -22 ° 1024 1 % 264 Wed 12/09 12Z 40 ° 37 ° 39 ° NE 7 N 13 0.00 0.00 542 559 -2 ° -19 ° 1021 71 % 276 Thu 12/10 00Z 44 ° 37 ° 42 ° SSW 4 NNW 13 0.07 0.00 541 551 -2 ° -18 ° 1012 88 % 288 Thu 12/10 12Z 44 ° 40 ° 42 ° ENE 11 N 9 0.06 0.00 534 539 -5 ° -25 ° 1006 95 % 300 Fri 12/11 00Z 41 ° 38 ° 39 ° NNE 20 NE 22 0.02 0.00 521 524 -8 ° -34 ° 1004 75 % 312 Fri 12/11 12Z 39 ° 33 ° 36 ° ENE 22 NE 20 0.00 0.00 514 521 -12 ° -38 ° 1008 63 % 324 Sat 12/12 00Z 33 ° 27 ° 32 ° ENE 20 NE 16 0.00 0.00 513 526 -12 ° -36 ° 1015 33 % 336 Sat 12/12 12Z 29 ° 26 ° 28 ° ENE 27 ENE 25 0.00 0.00 522 536 -8 ° -27 ° 1017 20 % 348 Sun 12/13 00Z 34 ° 26 ° 33 ° NE 27 NE 27 0.00 0.00 537 545 -1 ° -21 ° 1009 15 % 360 Sun 12/13 12Z 34 ° 32 ° 33 ° NE 22 NE 27 0.00 0.00 542 548 2 ° -21 ° 1007 19 % 372 Mon 12/14 00Z 39 ° 33 ° 37 ° NE 16 NNE 25 0.00 0.00 540 552 0 ° -21 ° 1013 13 % 384 Mon 12/14 12Z 41 ° 37 ° 37 ° ENE 16 NNE 18 0.00 0.00 538 553 -2 ° -22 ° 1019 13 % Max Temp Min Temp 850 Temp Max 850 Temp Min 500 Height Max 500 Height Min Thickness Max Thickness Min 44 °F 26 °F 2 °C -12 °C 562 521 542 513

Mid-December Cold?

Looking into the fascinating world of the model "La La Land" we have found a bit of consitancy on one thing. A polar Low dropping into canada beginning next week. What does this mean for us? Well, easy... it means that we would have enough cold air in Canada that if we got a shot from our NE, we would get real cold and I mean down right cold. As the cooler airmass from N. Canada slides south, models begin picking up an east wind event starting December 1st and lasting for at least a week. Details are still sketchy, especially how cool of air gets entrenched through the gorge. All in all, pattern shifts are imminant but the details arn't. Stay tuned!

Happy Turkey Day!!

Quick post, just wishing everyone a happy, safe and warm (and dry) Thanksgiving! Looks like some rain has settled in this morning, but that should break off later in the day. As for anything in the long term...NoThInG! There's been hints of an east wind event to start December, but at this moment, I really wouldn't rely on the GFS.

Wet November!

Wow, it sure has been a wet November for folks around the NW this month! Here's a list of avereages and totals for various places around the NW, that will tell the big picture. McMinnville................AVG: 6.23".....TOTAL THIS MONTH: 7.50" Salem......................AVG: 6.39".....TOTAL THIS MONTH: 7.29" Astoria....................AVG: 10.50"....TOTAL THIS MONTH: 11.45" Portland...................AVG: 6.39".....TOTAL THIS MONTH: 6.63" Seattle, WA................AVG: 5.67".....TOTAL THIS MONTH: 7.89" As you can tell, most places are above average in rainfall for the month. That easily self explantory when it comes to mountain snowpack. It's great to see a fairly average november in terms to precipitation, lets just hope a ridge dosn't decide to make the Pacific NW home for the next month or two!! -Grant Source: NOAA/NWS of Portland and Seattle

What a storm!! What a weekend!!

Congrats to Linfield College and Oregon for winning important football games yesterday. As well as a Blazers win, I'd have to say Saturday Night was one of the better nights in weeks, especially with what laid later in the evening! All in all, I ended up falling alseep at 11 last night, only to be waken up 2 hours later with a sudden start to our windstorm. You could literally hear the Atmosphere open up from ahead and just let it all go. I had a 58mph reading in West McMinnville as an unofficial windgust for KMMV. It lasted for about an hour with constant winds at least 30-35 Sustained for an hour, with gusts occasionally over 50mph. I would have to say that, for having a bunch of close calls this past month, it was finally nice to get in on some 50+mph winds for once. The Thunderstom in June still beats our best wind gust for the year at 72mph. I will be posting numbers and I will write a review a lil later today so check back! Comment the blog and leave your stories for others to read!

All In: Windstorm Tonight!

Wow, pretty exciting in terms of winds! Looks like we may get our best shot yet this year for a decent windstrom..when I mean decent...that means gust's expected above 55+mph at times. Details are still shotty, due to the fact that we will have to monitor the development of this low and see if it deepends. Wheather or not this low deepens will effect the possibilities of damaging winds and wheather or not we see gusts above 60mph. I will keep you all posted as more information becomes avaliable.. I am a bit surprised that the NWS has not issued any bulletins regarding the up coming winds. Stay tuned!

Another Wind Event and the Flu!

Ok, Well I have been recovering from a sudden flu outbreak since monday, I apologize for the lull. As for the updates for the website, there is still a minor delay since I was i'll and mostly in bed for days, there for, the Severe Weather Reporting System and Weather Picture submittal forms have had script errors, which need to be looked over. For those of you who are interested in submitting photos right now, your encouraged to do so the old fasion way..via email Send me the pictures with short captions at grantleblanc88@hotmail.com and I will have them up within an hour. I apologise about all the issues im having and I assure you they will all be resolved in a timley matter. Wind Storm Potential? We are keeping an eye on a developing low that is aiming right off the N. Oregon Coast into the Washington Coast. This may have the potential to support a quick but decent wind event in the Willamette Valley, but more information is needed before we can get into more specific details of this event. Will have an update on the blog at 9 PM tonight! --Grant

Coast to get Pounded, Site Delayed...

Well we have a lot of information to go over so I might as well start with the coming wind event for the coast. The coast will experience the first powerful fall storm of the season with parts of the coast getting into the 90+mph wind range. This will be a typically dangerous storm due to the fact that the ground is saturated already, along with high winds and more heavy rain. Falling tree's and branches are a concearn at the moment. As for the Valley, we will see some gusts as high as 45 but im not expecting this to be a valley wind event at the moment..so I will be keeping an eye on that all day. As you know, today was slated to be the grand opening of McMinnville Weather.com's new page. I have experience some technical issues with a couple pages..so these are the pages that will not work for a at least another week: Weather Around the NW Weather Pictures Severe Weather Reporting System (MWSDR) Weather Links Please be patient while I work all the bugs out and get things running smoothly. Im really excited to get everything up and running. So my main theme for the day: Stay dry and warm, stay away from the trees!!

Coast Range Recieves First Snowfall of the Season!

Thanks to Bruce Sussman, I was informed around 7 PM last night that spots of the coast range had recieved some light dustings. Of course, this isn't anything record breaking, it's none the less a great sign for this early season. Thank you Bruce for that information. Moving on, it's currently sitting at 32 degrees at 8 AM this morning in McMinnville. Im also getting reports that areas in clark county and the higher roads around the area are pretty slick so be careful. Checking the latest model run (06Z) it looks as if the trend its trying to cool off by wednesday/thursday. It looks just like the pattern we have over us last night and today. The main picture though, things should be warming up for Sunday and Monday with occasional hit and miss shower.

Site Preview!

Im hosting a preview of the new look McMinnville Weather.com right now! You can check out the new site and always leave comments and/or suggestions any time. At the moment, im emailing a couple big names in the local weather business to see if any are interested in contributing articles on the "Team Weather" seg. I still have not found any contributers at this moment. In the mean time, same story: low snow levels. Current models depict that the coast range will see a fair amount of snow in the upcoming day. Snow levels will be between 1,500-1,000ft and possible snow down to 500ft! By the time the coldest air gets here, most of the moisture should be gone (of course), so none the less this will be something to keep an eye on since models arn't real good at predicting snow in the NW Oregon area. Im calling for cold rain in the Valley with occasional mixing of snow, but the big picture Low elevation mountain snow and cold rain! By saturday things should be drying out and warming a slight tad as the next system approaches for Saturday night into Sunday.

Still looking interesting this weekend!

I have just gone over the 12z meteostar output for KMMV, it still shows a very cool Friday-Saturday for us, as well as adding more moisture to the punch. At this moment im still sticking with 1,000ft-1,500ft snow level for this event with places 500ft+ seeing some action but nothing at all sticking. As for us who live at 163ft in elevation, close call but still a little too early for good snow here. I'll keep an eye on this as it becomes more clear. Foothills and Coast Range Passes may get hit pretty good, as this would be the first snowfall of the early season for many of the higher elevations.

Low Elevation Snow??

Well, the last two days models have been trending upper atmosphere characteristics from 850mb to -4 through -7 temps on Saturday. Usually in winter, all's you need is a -6 to see snow on the valley floor. While keep in mind that it's still Mid- November, if we saw a -8 I would def call for valley snow. At this moments, theres still some model inconsitancy so I will be holding off on major details untill it becomes verified closer to the time frame. As for now, im going with 1,300ft-2,000ft snow level between friday night and saturday. Im pretty sure spots of the Coast Range will see their first snow of the season this weekend. More information to come...

Rain, Rain, And Snow?

More rain this morning, sort of like what happened saturday but without all the loud booms and bright flashes. All in all, we are looking more like we might have an average november rain total by the end of the month, which is a really great thing..due to the fact that we have a deficit running for the last 2 years. Another great sign for so early in the fall season, is that the Mountain Snowpack has already began. Timberline Lodge already has a 34" base, and we expect to add on to that through out the week. Im assuming by the end of the week they should be in the 40" range, close to 50"! As for the long term discussion, things are getting interesting but models are lacking consistancy, so will disregard anything in the long term for now. Web Page Update: Great news folks, McMinnville Weather.com is still on track for the November 16th debut. This page will have more features, better layout and easy navigation. I have also integrated a new Severe Weather Reporting system (MWSDR), its a new experimental weather reporting system and log, to keep track of past severe events as well as getting current severe weather reports to aide in better forecasts. We work closely with reporting to the NWS of Portland. Im also STILL looking for Team Weather correspondance, im kinda dissappointed at the lack of intrest from many people that I talk to. It would be a great oppertunity to have your weather work published weekly and to submit blog posts for team weather. This information would be extremly useful for people like me, and you.

Looking for a Weather Team Segment...

Im in the process of a new webpage that should make debut by November 16th if all runs smoothly. Im also currently in the process of looking for local NW weather journalist's to contribute weekly articles Pacific NW Weather related. Your work will be published for the publics viewing (you will be well represented) weekly on the "Team Weather" page. I may also issue a blog for Team Weather, and give access to the blog to 5 local journalist's that are willing to update a daily blog as a team. This will add a fun new perspective to NW weather and I think it will be a hit. You can also expect viewer photos page, anyone can contribute, as well as the original Weather Around the NW page. I will have more updates as they come, for now, what about those thunderstorms yesterday..great morning treat I must admit. Take care!

Welcome back the Weather Blog for Winter 09-10!

Welcome back to those who have followed me throughout my blogging, or lack thereof. Im currently planning on bringing back the weather blog, starting November 16th, 2009. I will also be taking McMinnville Weather.com, overhaul it and start updating reports and content once again. I have taken the time to commit to my weather ambitions this year, especially after taking a long break in between now and then. I look forward to publishing good and accurate content and updates, I will be updating the blog format till then and getting it ready. If you have any ideas or suggestions, please feel free to leave a comment. Thank you to everyone who has showed support and intrest, it will be a good year!