PNW 2006-2007 Winter: Colder than Normal with Above Avg. Snowfall

George Taylor just released his annual Fall and Winter predictions and already I can feel the excitement of the coming winter. With analog years such as 2003-2004 (Snow and Ice Event), 1996 (Extreme Flooding and a December Ice Event) and 1951 ( Major Windstorm in Nov. 2 Wind Storms in December, Tornado in December near Eugene and a large; widespread snowstorm in March) I think this winter has the potential to be a blockbuster. We are, for one, overdue for a windstorm, and snowfall has become more rare, we are overdue for more snow as well. It is also important to note that we have better chances to see snow in the exact pattern we are in (Neutral-Weak El'Nino) which surprised me at first. The main story here, expect a good winter. Check out his predictions, as well has his buds predictions at the bottom of the page. Take Care!

Interesting Notes....

As I always do at this time of the year, I took a look at the Canadian model to see where the cold is. Right now the blue shading is back on the map which means we are cooling and that Arctic Air is back. It's slowly expanding, which I thought was cool everytime I saw it, and assures me that winter is just around the corner. Another interesting note is McMinnville's averages.: December: Hi: 46 Low: 33 January: Hi: 46 Low 33 --They are both identical, how often do you see that? Also, with a low of 33, that would mean we usually have cold nights, which would mean..more snow? Factor in the Pacific Ocean, and the current Global Warming debate, a cold average dosn't mean more snow for us. As you already know, the snowfall in Western Oregon and Washington has dramatically decreased since the 1800's and people are now wondering if snow will become a rare event here. Personally, I don't think so. We will have some break out winters that will give us a ton of snow, but also factor in those winters that will be warm and dry..or warm and wet. It's all in the patterns of mother nature. Take Care.

Last Stretch of Summer....

Well it's been awhile for me on here, I have been getting ready for college and preparing with jobs. It has been a nice summer, pretty extreme with the 100's at times. We are now falling over to fall here soon. I don't think we'll have an extended summer, the patterns are almost ready to change over to fall soon, looking at the extended models and patterns from the Jet Stream. This winter will be one for the books. It looks interesting but yet there are some points to where im puzzled, especially at the SST's. I don't belive the SST's will determine our winter this year. Two major extremes I expect this winter are 1. Windstorm. We are overdue for one, like I have been saying for the past year and a half after looking at data. Mark Nelsen agree's to this as well as George Taylor. So thats the number one event I expect to see this winter. 2. Arctic Cold Snap. Looking at the patterns, and noting that we had Arctic air in February and and extremely cold start to March with that snow, I'd expect to see a nice cold outbreak for the NW. I am not going to comment on snow, that will just have to depend if there is any moisture when or if we see that Arctic Air. Im still looking over data, so things may change before I release my predictions in September. For the Blog, i'll be posting every other day with more news and tidbits. If you have any questions, feel free to comment on the Blog and i'll reply to those questions on the next post. Take care.