Server Problems

The server I run this blog off of is failing lately so if you need quick and informative updates about the arctic air situation, log into www.theweatherservice.com and click the PNW Weather View site.

Snow Tonight

Looks like we have the possibility to see a surprise snow event tonight into tomorrow. I would say that elevations 500ft+ have the best chance. Valleys may see some snow but may be spotty and whatever does fall will be light. This is just a start to our cold spell, an Arctic Attack from the NW. Tonight be will have -7 850 mb thickness over us which does support snow for the valleys. But do to the system bringing some onshore flow, may mix that out a bit and stick with 500ft snow and mix below that. Just too hard to tell so keep an eye open. I will try to update the blog twice tomorrow as well. I also update the NW Weather page on www.theweatherservice.com as well so that may be the first option tomorrow morning. Temps drop tomorrow and continue to do so as the week progresses, could see a significant snow event thursday if models bring that low closer and with more moisture. Lows can get into the teens and maybe into single digits thursday in area's. So keep checking back, things will get updated. Take Care!

Potential Snow Event #1

Tuesday night we see a shot at cold air with a weak system, this will lower snow levels 700ft-1000ft but models show -6 and -7 850mb thickness which is cold enough to support snow here. So if all goes through, we could be looking at some surprise snow tomorrow night, but wouldn't count on it yet. We still recieve Arctic air which will cool things dramatically. Highs may only reach the mid 30's by this weekend. Lows could easily make it into the teens and that would probaly kill most blossoms if any. I will be keeping an eye out and if there are any dramatic changes today, then i will issue an update on the front page. Take Care!

2006 Arctic Blast??

Many rumors are starting to heat up about a possible end-of-winter arctic blast in the Pacific NW, including NW Oregon. The National Weather Service of Portland has even mentioned the possability of this scenerio taking shape. All the models seem to be pointing at a retrogression by next week of the mean ridge, which axis takes it east of the PNW, perfect scenerio for colder weather. The problem is, what will happen? I can say that we will see a retrogression of the ridge, but how much impact will the cold air have on us? Todays 12z GFS model showed -15 850mb Thickness over NW Oregon by day 8, which is pretty much Arctic Air. It also showed precip over us at that time which in translation, would mean we'd get snow. The trend of cooling starts off on day 5 and takes off from there. We'd be in that pattern for a couple of days. Now, I will bet you right now that the 12z wont verify and the cold wont be as extreme as that model depicted. But we are on the right track, so stay tuned! Take Care!

Snow Event Categorys

I have came up with this simple categorization of snow events whenever one happens which makes it easy to write up a report after. Here's the three basic snow event types: Types of Snow Events for NW Oregon- Surprise Shot- This is when snow is not forecasted, but the upper atmosphere is cold enough to cause evaporative cooling. Usually you can catch this an hour before it happens by checking higher elevations close to your area. Sometimes though, the air may be too warm on the surface to change over to snow which may give you a snow/rain mix at 40 degrees. These events typically last about 30 minutes before the air moderates and the snow changes back to rain. Arctic Snow- This is when the temperature is in the 20’s or lower with overriding moisture. It will cause the snow to be very dry and powdery, this is often predicted 2 days in advanced and can last however long the arctic air mass is over the area. It can also lead to blizzard like conditions with blowing snow. This is the least common of snow events for NW Oregon. The Gorge Outflow Snow Effect- The most common of snow events in NW Oregon, the Gorge Outflow determines most of our snow events by the infamous east wind. If a cold air mass is just east of the cascades and we have a low just off the S. Oregon coast, that usually will produce the east winds and filter the cold air into the western valleys. Then the overriding moisture from the low will cause the moisture to start out as snow. These events will last from an hour to all day depending on the amount of cold air pulled in. Once the warm front goes by though, you typically see a warm up and an end to the snow event. Again, pretty simple..hope that helps. Speaking of snow, do we have a chance to see some before the end of winter? Yeah we actually do, but we will wait until next week to make any hard bets on the situation. Take Care.

Thanks for the support from some..

I had to take care of finals and had other things going. Some left some pretty nice comments, also a lot of junk spam on here. A few also left some pretty, wild, comments and to those who I have dissappointed, im sorry. I probally lost a bunch of readers and thats expected for my lack of updates. Pretty unresponisable for keeping up a page like this, that is supposed to get upated every day. As for those who come back every once and a while, i'll try to get your trust back and keep the page updated like it should. I could also use some help so that would be nice. Weather wise, a nice model run calling for a retrogression of the ridge we are in now..could bring in some modified arctic air in the area by next week. All in all, expect a post tomorrow. Cyah.