Mountain Snowpack Above Average!

Good news for the mountains as the snowpack this year is just fine, we are at about 150" of snow at Timberline Lodge at Mt. Hood. A big thanks to all that soaking rain that caused all that flooding around the area and a lot of grey skys that many call the winter blues. Still, no cold in sight, models say something one day but keep moving it back the next so im not gonna even pay attention like I have been saying for awhile now. Sorry about not posting many blogs, im in the last stretch of my Semester at school so I have to concentrate on finals and other stuff for class. Well, enjoy the dry days ahead for now, cuz rain will return soon enough. Take Care!

Weird Winter...

Man, everyone seems to be having a hard time finding cold air. Arctic air seems to have abandoned the U.S. the last couple of weeks. No sign of any of that air making its way down here. Other than that, wow, the NWS issued a high wind warnin g last night and the best gust we could pull off was 36mph, lame! We see a cool down by the beginning of next week, but nothing major.

High Wind Warning..More Rain..

Another round of wind and rain as the NWS of Portland has issued a High Wind Warning stating that winds could reach 50mph tonight and cause a loss of tree limbs onto streets, power, and yards. Please be careful out there. Also a Flood Watch is back in effect for the Yamhill River, whats new this winter? Still no sight for cold, so I am starting to go with the idea that I did a major bust this month in saying it would be cold. The pacific jet is just too strong and its forcing storms right into Oregon and Washington. Models are inconsistant and wont pay attention to long range forecast's. Other than that, have any questions? Give me some. Take Care!

Remembering 1996, Today...

With the most flooding I have seen since 1996, lets go through some area's where you know the 1996 flooding repeat is coming close when those grounds are under water. First off we start with lower city park. Of course, this park falls victim almost every year, but if you havn't noticed, everything is now almost under water. The water has made it all the way up to the out houses and picnic tables. Havn't seen that for a long time. Also a victim, Joe Dancer Park. Right now that park is closed due to the east side of it flooding. Again, I havn't seen that since 1996. Today, the water will retreat as we get small breaks in between systems, but we don't expect much improvement within the next 6-7 days. I might even call bust on my prediction of a cold January, thats starting to fade every other day. We'll have to see though. Take care and be safe!

Rain Rain, Go Away!--Not anytime soon...

Well no end in sight for the rain, this is a good time to start comparing this to 1996 but not as major..at least not yet. We are missing the pineapple express so to speak, but we are getting plenty of rain. Flooding is creating problems around the area, almost all of western Oregon is under flood watches and warnings. Current forecast's project the Yamhill River will reach floodstage sometime tomorrow. About the cold, some models are still in agreement but do not point out anything major at the moment. I will continue to look into this, in the meantime i need to catch up with models and post another blog later. Take Care!

Sorry Guys, new post...

Im sorry about my absense, I lost a friend last week and was dealing with that. A lot of stress. Anyways, we are heading into a cooler pattern, but not at this exact moment. Tonight, we expect a fairly good low to enter the "danger area" 130.. and it has the potential to go through cyclogenisis and could bring good winds to the interrior. Now, the NWS has not issued a High Wind Warning, but they have stated the issue in a special weather statment. Bares close watching as the night progresses. Other than that, we expect a cooling trend for the middle and ladder half of the month, should be interesting. Nothing that sticks out like a sore thumb yet. I am looking through models, looks like troughs want to form over the NW, we also have a lot if indices pointing that out so its a good possibility. I will post back tomorrow, and again I am very sorry for those who come back and read the blog every day. P.S. Mark Nelsen is a professional, of course he's gonna be better. Thanks for the comments.

Questions Answered...

I had a few questions I thoight I should answer, starting with this one from Linda.. 1) You had mentioned that it might get cold again around the middle of January. Is that still possible? What's your thoughts on getting some snow? My Response: I believe we are still on track for a cold spell sometime around the middle of January and around the end. All major indices such as the SST's, PNA especially and AOI have all been pointing to some kind of cold trough in the NW by this time. Also, signs such as low pressure, heavy rainfall and such are always a good clue that you're on track for a cold spell. It's a weather book classic if you would, and though things always don't go as they should in the world of weather so it may or may not happen. As for the current forecast, looking at the latest GFS model, it seems that there is a trough like I mentioned, trying to set up around the 17 of January. To me, that's too far out to be comfortable so I will wait until its at least in a 10 day time frame before making any mention to it. I think our chances for Snow will be great, we aren't done seeing the white stuff just yet. Hope this helped. 2)(12/24/2005) hey grant! Its 61 degres at astoria and newport! I think you we're right when you said that global warming was guff. But its obviously hapening locally along the coast. Does this agree with what the trpocis numbers are saying? My Response: Thank you Jason, and Global Warming will always be a scientific debate as long as I live unless proven right at this second with current weather. Global Warming has nothing to do with why the coast has seen warm temps. We get this every winter, a SW Flow which brings mild and wet temps to the region, also good windstorms! I wouldn't be too down and out about that, things will be back to normal shortly. And yes, the tropics do agree with this pattern, we are in a weak La Nina state, which means wet wet wet and occasionally mild with some good cold spurts in between to give us some snow. This winter has been particularly weird, in terms of ridge placement allowing us to stay cold as in early December. It will be an off and on winter. Hope this helped some of you, I am sorry about the slow response, I have been quite busy with some work lately. I promise to keep updating the blog almost daily with more tidbits and forecast updates. Thank you for those who read and come back, any questions..feel free to ask! Take care!

UPDATE: Wind Damage around town...

I got an email from an avid reader and this is what she had to say about a fallen tree near cook school on Lafayette Avenue this morning, ironically I drove by that area a couple minutes before that tree must of fell. "I just read your blog. Hey, you oughta see the tree in front of Cook School that was uprooted this morning. It's a huge cedar tree. I talked to some neighborhood kids while I was there & they said that it happened sometime while they were at the store this morning. It was up when they went to the store & down on the street when they returned. On my way from my parents' house to school, I couldn't help but notice it. I went to check it out, but by the time I arrived, the city had cleared away enough of the tree to clear both lanes of Lafayette Avenue & the sidewalk. I guess the school itself will have to clean up the rest...I think that tree was probably planted when the school was built, which was 76 years ago." What a shame, I bet the kids will all be down and out when school is back in session. Anyone else who has any stories about wind damage can email it to grant@mcminnvilleweather.com. Take Care!

Happy New Years, Bring on the Winds!

What a wild new years day it has been. Strong winds this morning caused havoc across the area in McMinnville and brought 49 mph gust's at 11 AM. Tree branches were everywhere, I havn't seen any uprooted trees yet. Power outages have been reported on the east side of town. I was out driving around at that time and wow, the wind started blowing my car around and you had to drive extra careful. 2 years ago, we had a major snow event at this time, come this year..a different story. Anyone who has seen damage or other reports of winds, contact me. More to come later!