Anniv. of the December 12th, 2000 Snow Event...

Tomorrow will be the anniv. of the surprise snow event in December of 2000 for McMinnville. For those locals who read this, you'd remember the 4 inches in one day while the Portland metro area got pretty much nothing at the same time. Now looking for snow in the forecast (which I bet most are, that time of the season) we see an interesting northerly flow develope by the weekend which may be a sign of colder weather on the way once again. Looking at the models as of now, we have a decent shot at snow around christmas but we are still far from then. We'll keep you updated on that, as for the rain, expect more of the wet stuff wednesday, that system will bring damaging winds (whats new?) and 1.5+" of rain as it looks to tap into some tropical moisture from Hawaii. Hope you all have a safe and warm holiday season!

Snow Advisory for McMinnville and NW Oregon

The NWS of Portland has issued a Snow Advisory starting at 2 AM tonight until Tuesday, we could get up to 4 inches in total snow here in town and around NW Oregon. Here's what the NWS statement said: SNOW ADVISORY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 230 PM PST SUN NOV 26 2006 ORZ005>007-WAZ022-039-270700-/O.NEW.KPQR.SN.Y.0029.061127T1000Z-061128T1400Z /LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...CLATSKANIE...HILLSBORO..PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS..LONGVIEW...KELSO...CASTLE ROCK...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND..WASHOUGAL230 PM PST SUN NOV 26 2006...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PST TUESDAYFOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTWASHINGTON...THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREASAND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY.. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOWADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PSTTUESDAY.COLD AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL TO500 FEET OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FROM CASTLE ROCK AND KELSO DOWNTHROUGH PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER TO NEAR SALEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET LATERTONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE LATER500 FEET ON MONDAY...AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH BELOW 500 FEETON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLEON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BE GREATEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 500 FEET.A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILYTRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ANDLIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.$$ Enjoy the first snowfall of the season, started the month wet and mild..oh, and windy. We'll end it off way below average and with some snow. Take care and drive safe!

Ahh, Finally a Chance for Lowland Snow...

What more could you ask for after an eventful start to the month, how about a eventful end to it which some snow? Current models bring in modified arctic air to the NW Sunday and also shows a low (the key ingredient to snow: moisture) along with it. Now depending on the track of this low (just like trying to track a windstorm) it will determine if we see snow here. I will keep you updated but brr it looks chilly to say the least. Happy Turkey Day;)

Windstorm A Bust? 44 mph at KMMV 30mph West Mac

The windstorm that once threatened McMinnville and the NW has past us now, giving McMinnville below High Wind Criteria the NWS established, at 44mph. To be considered a High Wind Warning..you have to have gust's 58 mph+. In my opinion, yes..my opinion, this windstorm was a bust for us here in mac. I went and did some survey around the city and down trees were kept to a minimum. Another story if you head west into the Coast Range where down tree's closed Highway 18 for most of the day. The coast reported triple digit windspeeds with 103 at Cape Blanco. Hurricane force winds are categorized at 75mph+. Obviously this storm will stay out of the top 5 windstorms, so that will stay untouched...for now. Power outages were reported in the greater portland metro area, 60mph gust was reported on a bridge in Portland. Next system arrives Wednesday for more unsettled conditions. If you had damage or took pictures of storm or damage then please send them!

Windstorm A Bust? 44 mph at KMMV 30mph West Mac

The windstorm that once threatened McMinnville and the NW has past us now, giving McMinnville below High Wind Criteria the NWS established, at 44mph. To be considered a High Wind Warning..you have to have gust's 58 mph+. In my opinion, yes..my opinion, this windstorm was a bust for us here in mac. I went and did some survey around the city and down trees were kept to a minimum. Another story if you head west into the Coast Range where down tree's closed Highway 18 for most of the day. The coast reported triple digit windspeeds with 103 at Cape Blanco. Hurricane force winds are categorized at 75mph+. Obviously this storm will stay out of the top 5 windstorms, so that will stay untouched...for now. Power outages were reported in the greater portland metro area, 60mph gust was reported on a bridge in Portland. Next system arrives Wednesday for more unsettled conditions. If you had damage or took pictures of storm or damage then please send them!

Windstorm Update: 3:15 PM Sunday

Cape Blanco has already just reported wind gust's to 76 mph on the Oregon Coast. Thanks to Jim from one of the weather forums I used to collaborate with other amature and professional meteorologist's he pointed out where the low is and how its starting to make the classic windstorm curve to the NE. This system is also 5 mb deeper than the models have predicted for this time so the intensity is there and this should give the valleys 70 mph gust's. Again, if the low starts to bomb, then we may be looking for winds higher than 70 mph here in the valley and would probally be ranked 3rd in the top 5 windstorms..but thats if that happens. Winds have picked up here in the valleys with sustained winds sitting at 20+ mph. Temperatures have dropped to almost 43 degrees which is a pretty dramatic decrease from 50 earlier. Jim little also took to the storm saying that convection around the current low will mix the air out pretty good causing surface winds to easily reach damaging speeds. Not good news for people living near large tree's. More updates to come...

Windstorm Takes Aim at NW Oregon..biggest since 95?

A high wind warning has now been issued for NW Oregon from 10 PM tonight until 4 AM Monday Morning by the National Weather Service in Portland. We can expect winds to be at least 55-60mph for gusts, and we can also expect this storm to be one of the biggest since 1995 and could fit in to the top 5 windstorms in the NW at the end of the night. Im a bit concearned about this situation due to the low, it that low bombs, then you get a huge rush of air to the center of the low (also called cyclongenesis) and thus; produces even more damaging winds which wern't predicted. We will be keeping an eye on this low and if that is the case, then we will report that back to you as soon as possible. Stay tuned to KGW or KPTV and The Weather Blog for more important weather updates.

Cold Snap, Then a Start to the Rainy Season...

This week, expect a major cool down beginning today and lasting until Wednesday. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 50's while lows will get into the mid to upper 20's. So this will be the first big freeze of the season here in the NW so keep an eye on the roads for any black ice this week. Starting Thursday, we transition into a major pattern shift, starting our rain season finally. It will be a warm moist sotherly flow and will bring rain every other day after that. What an interesting October it has been in the weather world. Snow levels will drop today to pass levels, but not much precipitation. Take care!

Cold Snap, Then a Start to the Rainy Season...

This week, expect a major cool down beginning today and lasting until Wednesday. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 50's while lows will get into the mid to upper 20's. So this will be the first big freeze of the season here in the NW so keep an eye on the roads for any black ice this week. Starting Thursday, we transition into a major pattern shift, starting our rain season finally. It will be a warm moist sotherly flow and will bring rain every other day after that. What an interesting October it has been in the weather world. Snow levels will drop today to pass levels, but not much precipitation. Take care!

Winter Weather Awareness Week!

NOAA has their annual winter weather awareness week in late October and I find it important to get this out to everyone for they understand the facts and warning messages NOAA offers to help protect lives and property. You can view the Winter Weather Awareness page here. Our current weather as of today has been the same for awhile now... cold wet start to the week...warm sunny end to the week. No exact pattern change yet, it's going to be the same this week. I was in denial about the El Nino situation, but now it has kicked me in the stomach and showed its ugly face as our pattern reflects that.

Arctic Air to Invade the Mid West while NW stays warm

By tomorrow, Arctic air will launch its first attack of migrating cold air into the NW. Since its still pretty early, the temps will stay more mild than you'd see if this was in mid winter. It is interesting to note that the Jet Stream is in a weird pattern for this time of year. We will continue to experience dry spring like weather for the time being, by this weekend the ridge will break down and we'll see a more zonal type of pattern to the NW. Highs are expected to plummit into the upper 50's in 7 days..as it looks of now. Enjoy your last taste of warm weather, because this is it.

NOAA: Weak El Nino Developing....Valley Rain and Mnt. Snow

It'd Official, NOAA released its monthly discussion on the SST's and found eveidence of a weak El Nino. Im not too concearned over this development, for one, it takes about 4-6 months to have a full effect after developing, so the beginning of winter shouldn't be too bad. I am worried about the second half of winter though, we may have a dry and mild second half, which should be paid close attention. For now, we are getting a sneak peak of mid October with cool temps (11 degrees below average earlier) and early mountain snow, which resulted in national media coverage of Mt. Hood yesterday on the Weather Channel. Timberline Lodge picked up 6" by the way. For the most part, we are done with summer and that was obvious awhile back. Expect maybe two-three more 80 degree days before the weather completely goes the other direction. Could get surprised though and end up with one last heat wave, which is unlikely at this time. UPDATE: McMinnville Weather.com's weather station in West McMinnville is back up. Sorry for the delay.

The Transition to Fall Begins....

As the days see less daylight, it's that time of the year where temperatures start heading downhill too. With the official start of school today and the unofficial end to summer, temps are expected to creep closer to more seasonal. I don't belive we will see another big heat wave in the 90's for the rest of this year. Still though, no rain in sight. The Canadian Model continues to show the Arctic air mass at the N. Pole continue to expand, as well as the general "cold" grey line. It won't be long until mother nature throws a hard punch at as, the first big rainfall. Which again, is no where in sight yet but no need to worry. UPDATE: Weather Station will be back online tomorrow. The Annual What Will Winter Be Like meeting at OMSI will be held on October 20th. I will get more info for all who's interested. Take Care!

Weather Station Down, and some Corrections...

My weather station will be offline today do to some moving around. It will be a hot day though, so make sure you drink plenty of water. Now, some corrections to the last post, the Cold and above average snowfall part was not from George Taylor but from the Old Farmers Almanac. George is predicting a dull winter according to KGW.com. To me, looking at these mnumbers and past analog years...I see reasons to be excited for the coming winter and I don't believe that the snowfall will stay just in Portland. Sorry George, not this year. Out of any year, this would of been the best to go all out on snow. Now, if the water in the tropics continue to warm, then we will have to reconsider the snow possabilities. Take care!

PNW 2006-2007 Winter: Colder than Normal with Above Avg. Snowfall

George Taylor just released his annual Fall and Winter predictions and already I can feel the excitement of the coming winter. With analog years such as 2003-2004 (Snow and Ice Event), 1996 (Extreme Flooding and a December Ice Event) and 1951 ( Major Windstorm in Nov. 2 Wind Storms in December, Tornado in December near Eugene and a large; widespread snowstorm in March) I think this winter has the potential to be a blockbuster. We are, for one, overdue for a windstorm, and snowfall has become more rare, we are overdue for more snow as well. It is also important to note that we have better chances to see snow in the exact pattern we are in (Neutral-Weak El'Nino) which surprised me at first. The main story here, expect a good winter. Check out his predictions, as well has his buds predictions at the bottom of the page. Take Care!

Interesting Notes....

As I always do at this time of the year, I took a look at the Canadian model to see where the cold is. Right now the blue shading is back on the map which means we are cooling and that Arctic Air is back. It's slowly expanding, which I thought was cool everytime I saw it, and assures me that winter is just around the corner. Another interesting note is McMinnville's averages.: December: Hi: 46 Low: 33 January: Hi: 46 Low 33 --They are both identical, how often do you see that? Also, with a low of 33, that would mean we usually have cold nights, which would mean..more snow? Factor in the Pacific Ocean, and the current Global Warming debate, a cold average dosn't mean more snow for us. As you already know, the snowfall in Western Oregon and Washington has dramatically decreased since the 1800's and people are now wondering if snow will become a rare event here. Personally, I don't think so. We will have some break out winters that will give us a ton of snow, but also factor in those winters that will be warm and dry..or warm and wet. It's all in the patterns of mother nature. Take Care.

Last Stretch of Summer....

Well it's been awhile for me on here, I have been getting ready for college and preparing with jobs. It has been a nice summer, pretty extreme with the 100's at times. We are now falling over to fall here soon. I don't think we'll have an extended summer, the patterns are almost ready to change over to fall soon, looking at the extended models and patterns from the Jet Stream. This winter will be one for the books. It looks interesting but yet there are some points to where im puzzled, especially at the SST's. I don't belive the SST's will determine our winter this year. Two major extremes I expect this winter are 1. Windstorm. We are overdue for one, like I have been saying for the past year and a half after looking at data. Mark Nelsen agree's to this as well as George Taylor. So thats the number one event I expect to see this winter. 2. Arctic Cold Snap. Looking at the patterns, and noting that we had Arctic air in February and and extremely cold start to March with that snow, I'd expect to see a nice cold outbreak for the NW. I am not going to comment on snow, that will just have to depend if there is any moisture when or if we see that Arctic Air. Im still looking over data, so things may change before I release my predictions in September. For the Blog, i'll be posting every other day with more news and tidbits. If you have any questions, feel free to comment on the Blog and i'll reply to those questions on the next post. Take care.

104 Today, Hot Across Much of the NW

Thanks to this thermal low, western oregon saw some of the hottest temps since 2003. We expect a cool down, but not much by tomorrow, highs in the low 90's for much of the NW, except for the coast. The thermal low is moving across eastern oregon, then trecks south. Onshore flow should kick back in and cool the days dramatically through the remainder of the week. One question I thought would be good to ask the NWS is why they never issued heat warnings for the central and south willamette valley as well? Thats something I think they need to work on, although this is a new heat forecasting warning system they have in place. Another question that tops peoples minds are whether or not hot summers lead to cold and extreme winters? The only winter so far that had a hot summer and a good cold/snow event was 2003-2004, leading up to the end of december snow as well as the new years eve snow event that later turned into an extreme ice event. It's something I will be looking into as the summer progresses. We also need to keep an eye on the tropics. There is a 50/50 chance we can see a weak La Nina by winter or a weak El Nino. Right now there is no reason to suspect El Nino at this time, but ocean temperatures are moderating a bit to the warmer side. Will keep this monitored and give you the latest scoop as time progresses.

Live Weather Feed Back!

I got my weather station back online and even better. If you scroll down the main page, or look on the "Weather Around the NW" page you'll see my stations weather magnet. If you click on that, you will be taken to Weather Underground and you'll see a live weather graphic. That live feed updates every 2 seconds, instantly. Now I can continue to gather my own weather data for McMinnville which is good to have. I also finally got the new links up, give me a comment on what you think about the site.

New Thunderstorm Pictures are up!

Just a heads up that I posted some pictures I took of a Thunderstorm in mid may. Some of the pictures are pretty cool. Check them out here.

New Weather Hotline and Research Plans

I will be installing a weather hotline for the McMinnville Weather Center for those around the NW who can call in weather reports and ask questions. The phone I will be using is IP voice over, so it's not long distance. I will post more when I get the phone set up. Now, I have contacted a friend about a research oppertunity for NW Oregon Snowfall. If he agree's, then I will start looking for grants. I will need an abundance of sensors and equipment to observe snowfall and create snow models, gather important data and find a way to better predict snowfall in western oregon. As you all know, snowfall is probally one of the most hardest things to predict in the NW. You have so much that go's into a snowfall, such as climate, orographics, storm track and the gorge outflow. Since we have the pacific influence, we tend to stay warm in winter, so we know we need a good flow of cold air. Ingredients have to be perfect in order to see snow. I'll have more on that later as well.

New Weather Software/Weird Weather Patterns

Im in the process of gathering all the weather software I need to be able to do research, monitor and track storms as well as gathering data important to what I need. Im setting up an all out weather center with two running computers, one for my web site junk, second..strictly for weather models and programs. It will allow me to do everything more smoothly and track important weather events to give you forecast's and predictions. I will also be a little more organized. Now that I am done with school for the summer, awaiting college..I will be able to spend more time on developing McMinnville Weather.com. Weird Weather Patterns... I have to note the fact that this wet, chilly weather pattern we are in isn't rare, but it is unusual even more due to whats happening down in the tropics. Now I haven't talked much about the SST's, but recently water temperatures have been on the rise. We are currently in a neutal stage as of now, as for an up coming el-nino? Too early to tell. It will be interesting to see if we do head into an el nino, but now that we are in summer, i'd expect water temperatures to rise a little due to the angle of the sun and extra heating. We'll see.

A warm up finally! But quiet in the long term...

Finally some nice summer-like weather in store for the NW. Nothing too exciting in the long term forecast's either, this is when the weather calms down for a couple of months and post's would seem so meaningless. But that won't keep me from posting other news involving weather. I'll start posting quizes and weather facts as time progresses. Oh, a delay on the buttons, I have to prepare for my ceremony on Friday. Take care!

Warm and Humid, ahh a taste of the east!

What a weird weather pattern we are in. An upper level low is setting right off the coast sending waves of rain and showers through the area. Whats more impressive is the fact that temperatures have reached the 70's with the rain and this means HUMID air in the area. Next week is looking a lot better with temps staying seasonable. Off that news, I am creating a scale that rates the impacts of snowstorms in the NW. It will be geat to have a ranking system of all our snow events in the NW. My hopes is that after long research, that the medai and NWS around the area will accept my scale of impact and integrate it into their rankings. I'll have that out as soon as im done doing the research. I don't have a date set for that yet but will keep you all posted. I will be finishing the site up by Sunday, so will have buttons on the menu this time. Enjoy.

May 27th and a Snow Advisory in the Cascades?

Sorry about the lack of post's, I got the flu, so I couldn't work on the updates for the site either. Ok, well what the heck, it feels like winter lately, I can see my breath out and its past noon already. Thanks to this persistant upper level low spinning off the coast, we are experience way below normal temps and above average precip for the past 3 days. Pretty interesting weather i'd have to admit though, we've seen an extreme of weather late spring with 90 degree weather, thunderstorms, rain, and cold temps. The Cascades have a snow advisory in place, so that also shows you how cold it is now. Better news for next week as a ridge seems to want to make a rest stop in the NW. High's next week are ranging from 70-75 degrees at the first of the week ending with 75-80 degrees at the end of the week. Less precip as well. Look forward to that.

More Thunderstorms, Closer to Home this Time

What a wild sunday for NW Oregon! Took photos of some thunderstorms developing south of McMinnville yesterday. It eventually hit us and brought heavy rain and gusty winds. And of course, lightning. A tree in the area was struck by lightning, splitting a branch. Other tree's had wind damage. I'll post the photos a little later. Im already starting to look at the future for the upcoming winter (yes I know its only May), and I am keeping an eye out on the tropics and current weather patterns. My winter weather predictions will be released in September in PDF format. Its in a report, so I used word. Im still updating the site, so keep checking back!

Notice all the Thunderstorms in E. Oregon?

I've been keeping an eye out on the radar the last couple of days and you may be asking me why, since we havn't seen a cloud in days. But, remember..we have the cascades and then the desert to our east..which is flat beyond that. That leaves the door open for some pretty strong thunderstorms and thus explains why I was watching the radar. This type of pattern in E. Oregon reminds me of Florida when the thunderstorms would pop up from the heating of the day. Very similar here, which makes the chances of seeing severe storms the better. *Site Update* Just added some links in, but I am still in the process of designing buttons to replace the text on the left. I tweaked around with some backgrounds and I still need to find a better background for the logo area. Just working on it all day today makes me realise I still have a lot of work to do. Oh and I also added back the Forum at peoples request. I will overhaul that as well.

New Site, and HOTTT Weather....

Finally, I have some of the "new" site up on time. I still have a lot of work to do, my background for the logo is too small and such. I need new link buttons, but other than that I got my RSS feed to work using this blog, which is now directly connected under the news section. This should be a lot better than the previous site. Now, to the weather. What a hot day it was yesterday. My temp reading here was 95, but I disagree with it, the sun may have got to it, but I do know we were around 92 here in McMinnville and hot everywhere else as well. Thanks to the lovely thermal trough off the coast, the real bummer was that we didn't get to see any thunderstorms. We have another oppertunity for that later in the week. For now, take care!

The Future of McMinnville Weather....

I have the new site set up, but I am having problems with the links and will have to work on that. The future stands as this, once the new page is up, updates will resume to normal basis. I have written a couple columns that I decided to wait on posting it until the new page is up, so some juicy tidbits will welcome the new site. I am also working on a new Blog, to prevent blackouts on days I try to post as in the past, which is why I would say this blog went down hill. I will have restrictions on comments once again, but not as strict as they are now. I didn't appreciate the none sense on the comments, probally from people I know around town who have nothing better to do other than rot their lives away writing none sense. Looking at it in a different spectrum, maybe I did deserve some of the comments for failing to get everything in order and updated in a timely manner. Other than that, I have an event to attend tomorrow night, should be interesting. I also want to note that the National Weather Service of Portland is offering a Severe Weather Awareness week May 7th-13th, which concentrates on what to expect in this new year and how to prepare for Severe storms of all types. We generally look at the Spring/Summer events in this section, which includes Severe Thunderstorms, Floods, Tornadoes, Wild Fires and much more. A fake Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be set off on May 12th, to help emergency agencies and citizens to practice emergency plans. Click here to learn more, I will post a new blog Sunday detailing everything, so check back! --Grant L.

Wow, I think its time to disable the comments on here

Things have gotten pretty rotten over here, especially with the comments. If you don't like the way I manage things around here then you have the right to go somewhere else, most people don't want to hear others constantly whine over and over again. I have the right to ban comments as well, and I will excercise that right starting today. As for the site, I am still redeveloping it, I have made good progress, but have ran into a bunch of errors that have dramatically pushed back the opening date. Its been pretty busy, new openinging deadline now at May 2nd, finished or not. Updates will begin on that day as well.

New Blogs In Future

Im working on a local blog server, for I can post blogs without going through this server that seemed to have locked me out for a long time. Im not sure how much of you still look at this, I don't blame you for going elsewhere but im working hard on trying to revive the blog and the site and make it a informational and reliable place to come for weather news. Im working on an April 15th deadline on the opening of the new page. So keep an eye out for that. Back to my work, thank you all for your support!

Server Problems

The server I run this blog off of is failing lately so if you need quick and informative updates about the arctic air situation, log into www.theweatherservice.com and click the PNW Weather View site.

Snow Tonight

Looks like we have the possibility to see a surprise snow event tonight into tomorrow. I would say that elevations 500ft+ have the best chance. Valleys may see some snow but may be spotty and whatever does fall will be light. This is just a start to our cold spell, an Arctic Attack from the NW. Tonight be will have -7 850 mb thickness over us which does support snow for the valleys. But do to the system bringing some onshore flow, may mix that out a bit and stick with 500ft snow and mix below that. Just too hard to tell so keep an eye open. I will try to update the blog twice tomorrow as well. I also update the NW Weather page on www.theweatherservice.com as well so that may be the first option tomorrow morning. Temps drop tomorrow and continue to do so as the week progresses, could see a significant snow event thursday if models bring that low closer and with more moisture. Lows can get into the teens and maybe into single digits thursday in area's. So keep checking back, things will get updated. Take Care!

Potential Snow Event #1

Tuesday night we see a shot at cold air with a weak system, this will lower snow levels 700ft-1000ft but models show -6 and -7 850mb thickness which is cold enough to support snow here. So if all goes through, we could be looking at some surprise snow tomorrow night, but wouldn't count on it yet. We still recieve Arctic air which will cool things dramatically. Highs may only reach the mid 30's by this weekend. Lows could easily make it into the teens and that would probaly kill most blossoms if any. I will be keeping an eye out and if there are any dramatic changes today, then i will issue an update on the front page. Take Care!

2006 Arctic Blast??

Many rumors are starting to heat up about a possible end-of-winter arctic blast in the Pacific NW, including NW Oregon. The National Weather Service of Portland has even mentioned the possability of this scenerio taking shape. All the models seem to be pointing at a retrogression by next week of the mean ridge, which axis takes it east of the PNW, perfect scenerio for colder weather. The problem is, what will happen? I can say that we will see a retrogression of the ridge, but how much impact will the cold air have on us? Todays 12z GFS model showed -15 850mb Thickness over NW Oregon by day 8, which is pretty much Arctic Air. It also showed precip over us at that time which in translation, would mean we'd get snow. The trend of cooling starts off on day 5 and takes off from there. We'd be in that pattern for a couple of days. Now, I will bet you right now that the 12z wont verify and the cold wont be as extreme as that model depicted. But we are on the right track, so stay tuned! Take Care!

Snow Event Categorys

I have came up with this simple categorization of snow events whenever one happens which makes it easy to write up a report after. Here's the three basic snow event types: Types of Snow Events for NW Oregon- Surprise Shot- This is when snow is not forecasted, but the upper atmosphere is cold enough to cause evaporative cooling. Usually you can catch this an hour before it happens by checking higher elevations close to your area. Sometimes though, the air may be too warm on the surface to change over to snow which may give you a snow/rain mix at 40 degrees. These events typically last about 30 minutes before the air moderates and the snow changes back to rain. Arctic Snow- This is when the temperature is in the 20’s or lower with overriding moisture. It will cause the snow to be very dry and powdery, this is often predicted 2 days in advanced and can last however long the arctic air mass is over the area. It can also lead to blizzard like conditions with blowing snow. This is the least common of snow events for NW Oregon. The Gorge Outflow Snow Effect- The most common of snow events in NW Oregon, the Gorge Outflow determines most of our snow events by the infamous east wind. If a cold air mass is just east of the cascades and we have a low just off the S. Oregon coast, that usually will produce the east winds and filter the cold air into the western valleys. Then the overriding moisture from the low will cause the moisture to start out as snow. These events will last from an hour to all day depending on the amount of cold air pulled in. Once the warm front goes by though, you typically see a warm up and an end to the snow event. Again, pretty simple..hope that helps. Speaking of snow, do we have a chance to see some before the end of winter? Yeah we actually do, but we will wait until next week to make any hard bets on the situation. Take Care.

Thanks for the support from some..

I had to take care of finals and had other things going. Some left some pretty nice comments, also a lot of junk spam on here. A few also left some pretty, wild, comments and to those who I have dissappointed, im sorry. I probally lost a bunch of readers and thats expected for my lack of updates. Pretty unresponisable for keeping up a page like this, that is supposed to get upated every day. As for those who come back every once and a while, i'll try to get your trust back and keep the page updated like it should. I could also use some help so that would be nice. Weather wise, a nice model run calling for a retrogression of the ridge we are in now..could bring in some modified arctic air in the area by next week. All in all, expect a post tomorrow. Cyah.

Mountain Snowpack Above Average!

Good news for the mountains as the snowpack this year is just fine, we are at about 150" of snow at Timberline Lodge at Mt. Hood. A big thanks to all that soaking rain that caused all that flooding around the area and a lot of grey skys that many call the winter blues. Still, no cold in sight, models say something one day but keep moving it back the next so im not gonna even pay attention like I have been saying for awhile now. Sorry about not posting many blogs, im in the last stretch of my Semester at school so I have to concentrate on finals and other stuff for class. Well, enjoy the dry days ahead for now, cuz rain will return soon enough. Take Care!

Weird Winter...

Man, everyone seems to be having a hard time finding cold air. Arctic air seems to have abandoned the U.S. the last couple of weeks. No sign of any of that air making its way down here. Other than that, wow, the NWS issued a high wind warnin g last night and the best gust we could pull off was 36mph, lame! We see a cool down by the beginning of next week, but nothing major.

High Wind Warning..More Rain..

Another round of wind and rain as the NWS of Portland has issued a High Wind Warning stating that winds could reach 50mph tonight and cause a loss of tree limbs onto streets, power, and yards. Please be careful out there. Also a Flood Watch is back in effect for the Yamhill River, whats new this winter? Still no sight for cold, so I am starting to go with the idea that I did a major bust this month in saying it would be cold. The pacific jet is just too strong and its forcing storms right into Oregon and Washington. Models are inconsistant and wont pay attention to long range forecast's. Other than that, have any questions? Give me some. Take Care!

Remembering 1996, Today...

With the most flooding I have seen since 1996, lets go through some area's where you know the 1996 flooding repeat is coming close when those grounds are under water. First off we start with lower city park. Of course, this park falls victim almost every year, but if you havn't noticed, everything is now almost under water. The water has made it all the way up to the out houses and picnic tables. Havn't seen that for a long time. Also a victim, Joe Dancer Park. Right now that park is closed due to the east side of it flooding. Again, I havn't seen that since 1996. Today, the water will retreat as we get small breaks in between systems, but we don't expect much improvement within the next 6-7 days. I might even call bust on my prediction of a cold January, thats starting to fade every other day. We'll have to see though. Take care and be safe!

Rain Rain, Go Away!--Not anytime soon...

Well no end in sight for the rain, this is a good time to start comparing this to 1996 but not as major..at least not yet. We are missing the pineapple express so to speak, but we are getting plenty of rain. Flooding is creating problems around the area, almost all of western Oregon is under flood watches and warnings. Current forecast's project the Yamhill River will reach floodstage sometime tomorrow. About the cold, some models are still in agreement but do not point out anything major at the moment. I will continue to look into this, in the meantime i need to catch up with models and post another blog later. Take Care!

Sorry Guys, new post...

Im sorry about my absense, I lost a friend last week and was dealing with that. A lot of stress. Anyways, we are heading into a cooler pattern, but not at this exact moment. Tonight, we expect a fairly good low to enter the "danger area" 130.. and it has the potential to go through cyclogenisis and could bring good winds to the interrior. Now, the NWS has not issued a High Wind Warning, but they have stated the issue in a special weather statment. Bares close watching as the night progresses. Other than that, we expect a cooling trend for the middle and ladder half of the month, should be interesting. Nothing that sticks out like a sore thumb yet. I am looking through models, looks like troughs want to form over the NW, we also have a lot if indices pointing that out so its a good possibility. I will post back tomorrow, and again I am very sorry for those who come back and read the blog every day. P.S. Mark Nelsen is a professional, of course he's gonna be better. Thanks for the comments.

Questions Answered...

I had a few questions I thoight I should answer, starting with this one from Linda.. 1) You had mentioned that it might get cold again around the middle of January. Is that still possible? What's your thoughts on getting some snow? My Response: I believe we are still on track for a cold spell sometime around the middle of January and around the end. All major indices such as the SST's, PNA especially and AOI have all been pointing to some kind of cold trough in the NW by this time. Also, signs such as low pressure, heavy rainfall and such are always a good clue that you're on track for a cold spell. It's a weather book classic if you would, and though things always don't go as they should in the world of weather so it may or may not happen. As for the current forecast, looking at the latest GFS model, it seems that there is a trough like I mentioned, trying to set up around the 17 of January. To me, that's too far out to be comfortable so I will wait until its at least in a 10 day time frame before making any mention to it. I think our chances for Snow will be great, we aren't done seeing the white stuff just yet. Hope this helped. 2)(12/24/2005) hey grant! Its 61 degres at astoria and newport! I think you we're right when you said that global warming was guff. But its obviously hapening locally along the coast. Does this agree with what the trpocis numbers are saying? My Response: Thank you Jason, and Global Warming will always be a scientific debate as long as I live unless proven right at this second with current weather. Global Warming has nothing to do with why the coast has seen warm temps. We get this every winter, a SW Flow which brings mild and wet temps to the region, also good windstorms! I wouldn't be too down and out about that, things will be back to normal shortly. And yes, the tropics do agree with this pattern, we are in a weak La Nina state, which means wet wet wet and occasionally mild with some good cold spurts in between to give us some snow. This winter has been particularly weird, in terms of ridge placement allowing us to stay cold as in early December. It will be an off and on winter. Hope this helped some of you, I am sorry about the slow response, I have been quite busy with some work lately. I promise to keep updating the blog almost daily with more tidbits and forecast updates. Thank you for those who read and come back, any questions..feel free to ask! Take care!

UPDATE: Wind Damage around town...

I got an email from an avid reader and this is what she had to say about a fallen tree near cook school on Lafayette Avenue this morning, ironically I drove by that area a couple minutes before that tree must of fell. "I just read your blog. Hey, you oughta see the tree in front of Cook School that was uprooted this morning. It's a huge cedar tree. I talked to some neighborhood kids while I was there & they said that it happened sometime while they were at the store this morning. It was up when they went to the store & down on the street when they returned. On my way from my parents' house to school, I couldn't help but notice it. I went to check it out, but by the time I arrived, the city had cleared away enough of the tree to clear both lanes of Lafayette Avenue & the sidewalk. I guess the school itself will have to clean up the rest...I think that tree was probably planted when the school was built, which was 76 years ago." What a shame, I bet the kids will all be down and out when school is back in session. Anyone else who has any stories about wind damage can email it to grant@mcminnvilleweather.com. Take Care!

Happy New Years, Bring on the Winds!

What a wild new years day it has been. Strong winds this morning caused havoc across the area in McMinnville and brought 49 mph gust's at 11 AM. Tree branches were everywhere, I havn't seen any uprooted trees yet. Power outages have been reported on the east side of town. I was out driving around at that time and wow, the wind started blowing my car around and you had to drive extra careful. 2 years ago, we had a major snow event at this time, come this year..a different story. Anyone who has seen damage or other reports of winds, contact me. More to come later!