Yamhill River to Flood, more Rain to come!

The NWS of Portland has issued a Flood Warning for the Yamhill River which is expected to crest at 54.19ft by 4 PM Saturday. This will make the top 5 historical crest's since records began. This also will hover around the 1996 event, but not as major of course, well at least not right now. 50.00ft is the Flood stage so we will be well above that. Take caution when driving near the river and other flooded streets. An Urban and Small Stream Flood Warning has been issued for McMinnville again, this means a section of Old Sheridan Road will be closed once again as well as the low laying creek parks. Stay at higher grounds. Last night, we got about 1.04 inches of rain from 8 PM to Midnight...and from Midnight until 11:00AM we have picked up another whopping 1.10 inches of rain. Storm total so far is 2.14 inches. That bumps us up to a HUGE 9.72 inches of Rain this month, since December 18th. Thats well above our monthly average. No droubts this year folks! We don't see an end to this yet, expect more heavy rain tonight and into Sunday. Be careful!

Rain Rain Rain!

So much for High Winds this morning, it was the rain that took the spotlight. Since midnight until 12 Noon, we have had 1.40 inches of rain, WOW. That just shows you how heavy the rainfall was last night. And get this, since December 18th (Our Snow Storm), we have had 7.11 inches of Rain!! Thats another amazing stat with all of this wild weather, we expect flooding in the usualy flood zones such as lower city park and the other creeks around the area, especially near Old Sheridan Road. The Yamhill River is expected to flood some bit before receeding, nothing too major. Welcome to a normal Oregon winter folks, now we need some cold air. Right now it looks like we may get a shot of cold air by January 9th-10th, thats just too far out, but something to think about. Take Care!

High Wind Watch in Effect...

High Wind Watch is in effect at the moment for the Willamette Valley. Looks like this will be a very potent storm. The actual winds wont be here until tomorrow morning and afternoon. 40 sustaind winds with 60+ gust's. Expect power outages and uprooted trees from this wind event. I will issue a special weather bulletin on the site at 2:30 to let more people know. I will be changing the batteries in my weather station, so if power goes out I still have readings coming in. More updates to come..

IM BACK!!

Hope you all had a great Christmas! I got some books on weather and a hand held anemometer. It shows wind/gusts/windchill and temp. Very useful tool for I can do temp readings up in the mountains. Great for my research too! Anyways I am looking to update the site real soon, I need to put up more articles and update the forecast page. Another situation unfolding as we speak as a strong low pressure system is approaching the Pacific NW. The potential of strong winds is one again a fact, so we could be looking at 35-45mph gusts so far, Hurricane force winds can be expected on the coast so be very careful! Will update more later, take care!

Strom Review is UP...

I finally got my storm review up, so go check it out under "Weather News." Other than that, wow, we almost got two inches of Rain yesterday. The creeks did overflow and had minor flooding. Alice reports: "my 24 rainfall total is 2.18", my total rain since 12-21 is 7.30". my creek is now a river...but we are safe--Alice" Be careful! We still have flood watches up, but I don't think the Yamhill River will be a problem with this any time soon. I will be getting storm pictures up very soon so sit tight with that. I am off for vacation now, i'll be back Monday. Take Care and have a wonderful and safe Christmas!

A wet week ahead..

After a day off, im ready to combat the weather once more. I am in the process of typing up a storm review for last Sunday. I need to gather more data first. Man oh man, what a wet day it has been, we have picked up .86 of an inch of rain so far today and we have totaled 2.16 inches since Monday. We expect more before the weekend. Other than that, we need to watch out for localized creek flooding. That could be an issue soon, I saw the creeks nearby start to swell. Anyone living near creeks should keep an eye on that. We expect maybe a little break from all the action come Christmas. We do not expect any good chances for snow for awhile now, sorry to all those snow lovers. And we need more Weather Spotters, that information from you folks helps a lot into understand what's going on. Very helpful. Thanks and take care!

The Day After....

Wow, what a busy and exciting day yesterday was. The snow didn't necessarily take me by surprise, but I notice we would most likely see snow after I looked at the upper atmosphere reading, such as Timberline Lodge and Government Camp. When I saw that both of their temps were way below freezing, I knew we were going to see snow, but it did start out as sleet in the beginning. Our Official reading here for snowfall was .75" of the white stuff. The snow started falling around 1:15 PM and lasted to about 3:20 PM. Shortly thereafter, we started to see an increase in traffic accidents due to the roads freezing over. I tried to stand on my road before almost falling on my head. Cars with no traction tires, it was like suicide. It got pretty bad, but it was a nice little snow event in the end. Later into the night, the second wave came in, it started out as freezing rain but quickly turned to rain after moderating the upper air, as well as the surface. So, for the year..we have a .75" record so far, more to come later in the winter is probaly a sure bet. Take care!

More info..

Looks like we will be getting freezing rain later. I just saw some rain droplets out the window, so the upper air over us must have already moderated. Here's an update summary for Vancouver, Washington: Up in Vancouver we had heavy snow around 2-4:30 pm, with winds gusting to 31 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. We had about 0.75" of snow/sleet accumulation. Never really saw any freezing rain. Tyler Thanks Tyler.. I am updating my forecast now..this will be the last blog post of the night. Remember to drive slow if you have to, and expect freezing rain later. --Grant L.

Second Wave Storm

Ok, as far as of now; it seems that the atmosphere above has not warmed up one bit. Its 19 at Timberline Lodge (6,000ft) and its 20 at Government Camp (3,000ft). It is Currently 30.9 right now and we still have winds. The next system looks to arrive about 4 AM maybe and if so, and the upper atmosphere stays cool as well as we stay below freezing, we could see a second burst of snow. By mid morning, it would turn to freezing rain as the Atmosphere above warms. By afternoon, we could be looking at just regular rain as everything mixes out with the SW Flow. The morning commute looks messy and if you can stay home, then do it. I was already involved in a small incident that occured when I got hit from behind as that car hit an ice patch. No damage or harm done. I will be putting up storm photos later, so you guys could check that out.

Snow has tapered off

The snowfall has stopped, about a half an inch accumalation in McMinnville. Driving sucks, stay home as I keep saying. We expect another system to come in later tonight, it may start out as snow again, but things will start to warm up later and turn to freezing rain. Any reports would be welcomed.

Almost the end of the tunnel

The radar shows the end about 30 miles away so the snow should be tapering off in the next 45 minutes. We have about a half inch so far. Many accidents reported. We may have a seconf shot later tonight as a second system comes through, but it will be much warmer and this is where we trasnistion to freezing rain.

Accidents pick up

I got phone calls on traffic, its bad out there folks, people are sliding everywhere, even a report of ice UNDER the snow. Don't drive. Its only gonna get worse before better, a heavy band of snow is just south of us. Current temp is 30.7 with a 25 DP. Don't go anywhere.

More and More snow...

When will it end?? Wait, I don't want it to. Its covering the streets and cars now. Snow is blowing off the roofs, I havn't seen this kind of snow since January of 2004. The radar shows no immeadiate end, out temp reading now is 32.7 and snowing hard. Heres some updates: Sheridan: Heavier snow ...very blowing and sticking..temp now 33.3 at 2:00PM ... winter wonderland shaping up nicely...!!! KEN You can say this was kind of a surprize snow storm, but the thing is..how long will it last? I don't know, lets just enjoy what we have and not be greedy!

Heavy Snow in McMinnville

We are now recieving heavy snow, we expect this snow to last into tonight and eventually switch to freezing rain and then to just rain later tomorrow. More reports: West Hills of Salem: snowing hard in the hills of west salem.

Updates around the region

Still snowing here in McMinnville very very lightly. Here's other reports.. Sheridan: Its 1:30 here in Sheridan and the earlier pellets/sleet have changed to light,blowing snow flurries...temp is going down..now 34.2.....KEN Sherwood: Out in Sherwood we have a light dusting as of 1:54 p.m. If your getting snow, report it!

Light Snow still falling

We have a light dusting now on the sidewalks and driveways as well as the roofs in McMinnville. We expect a mixture of Snow/Sleet and Freezing Rain all day and into tonight. Here are some other spotter observations. From Sheridan: "At about 1:55 ice pellets began to fall in Sheridan...my temp reading is 35.1...no freezing rain observed yet but some light snowflakes in the air...very fine ice pellets....Ken Barrios" From (30 miles East of Newport): i am in the chitwood area of hwy 20, east of newport about 17 land miles. it is currently dropping temps...about .5 degree per 1/2 hour. we are 29' as of 11:50. rain, no ice, no snow and very breezy east winds. oddly enough the temps are falling at newport as well. the airport itself is just south of the city on a small hill..

LIGHT SNOW and SLEET

We are getting a very light snow/sleet mix as of right now. Im not sure how long this will last before turning to freezing rain. More updates coming

Looks like we may skip snow...

Even though the higher elevations are colder, it seems like we have a variable freezing level which my have a hole over the central willamette valley to prevent snow from occuring. A report from Salem was freezing rain, so I am just going to expect freezing rain for the time being. The radar shows moisture over us but it may be virga (eveaporating before hitting the ground) for 15 minutes do to how dry the air is. Will keep u posted!

Good Question, where is the Warm air aloft?

A good question from someone reading the blog, the current temps for government camp is 20 and its in the 20's at Timberline which is 6,000ft. I thought I saw some flakes earlier and I don't see why this couldn't start as snow. We may get some snow and it will then transition to freezing rain and sleet later. The moisture has reached salem but I have no clue to what is falling there because my weather spotters have not sent me info. I will be checking back, I wouldn't be surprized to see snow first, good possibility!

Slowly Moving In..

The system is now about 30 or less miles from salem according to dopplar radar. Freezing rain is spreading into the area, I expect the same for us when it rolls in. According to my weather station, its 35.2. Pretty warm, but the DP is 17 and when the mositure sturates the atmoshphere we expect that to drop the temps pretty good. Maybe 2 hours away still for McMinnville. Keep posted.

Start out as Snow?

People are wondering if this sytem will start out as snow. As of now, Rye Mountain.. 30 miles SE of McMinnville and 2,000ft Elevation is 28 degrees with low DP. There could be a thick enough layer of cold that could help the precip start out as snow for us for a little bit, but then change over to freezing rain and sleet. Hey, it could happen..but with these types of events you just can't say for sure. The temps have moderated a bit.. 34.3 Degrees with 16.7 as DP. The clouds are now rolling over us and we will say goodbye to the sun for awhile. The band of moisture is just at Corvallis now and I will be getting updates from Corvallis shortly. Stay tuned..

100th Blog Post Brings a Winter Storm Warning...

Well, this is my 100th post in the blog today, and with that, we bring up a Winter Storm Warning. This is the second WSW issued this month, the last one was a bust. This one states we could see freezing rain as soon as 2 pm Today. I am not too confident in what will excatly go down until it happens. Current temp reading as of 8:30 AM is 30.3 degrees F. Winds at 9mph with 22.4 degree windchill. It will be the first time I will be using my new electronic rain guage, so that would be pretty cool. Of course I will be keeping you all posted on what goes down every other hour. But please remember when Freezing rain occurs, do not drive. I don't want to see any fatal crashes in the News-Register come Tuesday's edition. More updates to come..

Winter Storm Watch in Effect for Sun/Mon.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the NWS of Portland. It states that their is a real threat of Freezing Rain/ And Sleet for McMinnville and the rest of the Central Willamette Valley. Its expected to Start late Sunday and last into Monday Morning. Morning commute will be a hazard and is recommended that you keep a close watch on the latest forecast's/discussions. More info to come soon...

BRRRR Its COLD!

What is with all this cold air lately? Our monthly average is now at 35.4! I have not seen this kind of December for awhile. And thanks to James on your comments, to answer your question..the Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.noaa.gov) has good information on the SOI and the Tropics. You can learn more through their information they have availiable. Back to the current weather, we are currently monitoing a possible major Ice Storm by early next week. We could see some flurries on Saturday night as a weak front makes it through. Next week, cold air will be in place as a stronger and wetter system trys to make it through, could bring over an inch of ice from salem north. The Gorge will get pounded. Another observation, my pond has been frozen for 3 days now, thats how cold it has been. I will be updating the forecast page later tonight. Take Care!

Thanks for the Comment from "Anonymous"

Very informational. I was trying to say we have not seen this kind of pattern for awhile, and I have not seen this cold of weather for awhile either for this amount of time. So do you belive in Global Warming now? I don't. I belive in Global Patterns in such, Cold Phase, Warm Phase. This just proves that we are heading more into a cold phase, so much for all that bluff on Global Warming.

Way Below Normal December Regarding Temps...

We are averaging 36.2 on my weather station for the month of December. Thats Cold!! And whats even more weird about that is, we are under the influence of a High Ridge that has been persistant. Usually when you get High Ridges, you warm up pretty good and stay generally clear. Our low this morning got t0 21! Now, this does remind me of last year and I am not starting to get worried, but not too much though because most models now agree to break the ridge down and go zonal by day 8. This has been a weird winter (or fall) so far, only makes you wonder "whats next?"

Go Away Ridge!!

I understand some of your guy's concerns over this blocking ridge lately. I am starting to get a little edgy about this myself, but there is really nothing to support this kind of ridging, its a strange pattern we are in. But we are still cold, thanks to the gorgeous east winds. The only precip I can see in the foreseeable future is possibly this weekend. We will stay cold once again this week, then we could see rain kick up by next week. Now as for a white Christmas? Nope, I don't see it happening this year as far as the models see. But things can change obviously since their has been hiccups in the GFS being all sporadic in every run. It has been really boring lately, a little too boring for winter, well early fall for most of you, but Meteorological Winter started Dec. 1st. Take care!

Retrogression Next Week!

Well, now all the models (ECMWF being an exception at the moment) are showing a nice little retrogression next week that could bring in cold air to the area. This idea is still new, so the details arn't quite known yet. Also, dreaming of a white Christmas? So far that looks off for this year once again, but it's still early. We'll see. And some are emailing me with questions about the current weather setup. Some people can't see the magnet that shows the current temp and wind speed, I will try to work on that. I have been trying to work out some bugs with the weather station so hold tight. Yesterday my temp reading got as high as 56 degrees, disregard that. The sun found a way to shine directly at the thermometer and warmed it up nicely so will have to move that. Other than that, enjoy the nice weekend and the quite before the next close calls for snow and freezin rain!

Make up your MINDS!!

The GFS model cannot be trusted in long range patterns..duh!? The models ar unable to pick an event in the long range to agree on. Every model run is a dramatic change from the last. Whats going on? By all means, this winter will be in it's own category. I don't think this will be one of the analogs for awhile. To see ahead to Christmas, thats like trying to hit the 1 CM target on a dart board..blindfolded while being spun around. Pretty bad huh? Im not too sure why this ridge wants to keep building. I've said this before but it seems like mother nature cannot let go of the past (last winter). Mostly all of the Tropics numbers are agianst the idea of a strong ridge for the NW, so why is it forming? That, we'll never know! Lets just hope it brings us some good Arctic events in the future. Also, I am sorry for the Forecast page being offline. I will try to get tgat back up tonight. Take Care!

Another Ridge, but no warm up in sight...

Well, we are in another stubbourn ridge, I always get an outcry about these suckers by people asking if we should be worried? I don't think we should be worried, I see hardly any numbers to support a long last ridge, and it should die soon. Now what about our chances for a white christmas? Thats still up in the air, but if we transition into a nice retrogression by the end of the ridge, we could find ourselfs in a good trough that could have potential to increase our chances of seeing a nice snow event. As for your question Brian, I havn't talked to him yet (Dr. Taylor). I will send him up an email and see what he's thinking about all of this. I have been really bust lately with research so I need to get into more writing in the blog. Thank you all for the questions and come back tomorrow!

Another round of: Almost but not Quite?

It seems like now with every storm we have a chance of Low Elevation snow. This time around, we have a chance for Snow, Sleet or Freezing Rain as a system pulls even colder air than any of the previous close calls. But will this really happen? Well there are a lot that work agasnt this system, like how its supposed to split and most of the energy goes more south due to a High Pressure in place. Second of all, we never got snow with the previous storms. Third of all, we live in a Valley only 167ft above sea level. Right now, I will leave in a SLIGHT chance of any precip making it inland, but for some reason, this system looks much bigger than previously thought so maybe thats some good news? All in all, it will be ANOTHER close call so its one of those forecast's where its wait and see. Take care!

New Computer in the Office...

I received a new computer to go along with my Weather Station for I can have a constant live update. Now for those who are a bit confused at where the current weather is, on the main page below the News Section scroll down and you'll see the Current Weather. If you click on that, it sends you to a page where it records data. Its a pretty neat thing. The site has been going pretty slow lately now that I am trying to transfer everything on the new computer. I hope you guys can hang in there at some points. Thanks for everyone who has made this page more expandable.

Live Weather Up and Running

I am using the Underground Weather interface for putting the live results on the web site, works for now. You can click that interface and it will take you to raw data and stats which is really cool. Now next week, we are watching a cold arctic high pass to the east of Washington and Oregon. This may cause the east winds to get going and bring in some cool temepratures, but no snow. We are done with snow chances for awhile now. How about those who ask me about a white christmas in McMiinville (Western Oregon)? Well to answer that question, I firmly belive that we have a better than normal shot at seeing cold by that time which also increases the chance for frozen precip. As for a White Christmas? Well a week and a half more, then we'll start getting a better idea at what our real chances our. Long range models though have been very inconsistant. We will see another persistant ridge of high pressure build into the region and so far it looks to be staying all this week and into the weekend. Have a Great Weekend!

Weather Station has Arrived!

I have recived my new weather station and I am currently setting it up for I can put it on my web page for live updates. I am pretty excited about that. To recap things from last night, we got a rain/snow mix all last night as well as today. Its been cold, but not cold enough to support flat out snow. We are watching a situation unfold for next week which may keep our temps on the cool side even though a ridge will build. I will have more information on that as well as the chances for a white christmas in western oregon. All that tomorrow, take care!

KPTV, KOIN and KATU, they all get A's....

Thanks Gary for your report, Snow Level in the Northern Coast Range is about 900 ft according to Gary's observations while a snow/rain mix at Vernonia. I will admit, I didn't do all too well for this storm as well..but I did start to feel that it wouldn't happen by 11 PM last night. I brought up a large map of current observations for the western half of Oregon including the Gorge and looked at temps on the east side and in the Gorge. It was way too warm to have a sufficient cold flow pour into the Willamette Valley. Mark Nelsen of KPTV did a real good job at predicting this storm by going against the National Weather Service warning for the first time in his career. And it paid off, I give Mark a lot of respect and credit for pulling that off. Mark is a good friend of mine, and probally one of the best NW Meteorologist's I know of. He knows the climate very well, and he understands a lot about the NW. There is one thing he needs to work on though and that is Freezing Rain situations. Hope we don't have too much of those events around this year. Other than that, KATU and KOIN also went against the NWS by saying little to no snow. The only goof of the day was from KGW where they predicted an all out snow event. Ouch. Now Matt Zaffino is a really smart guy, but come on..I think you could of done way better than that. Now you will understand why the Meteorologists here are so pessimistic when snow is in the forecast. And I will be too! Thanks for those who read the blog to keep track of the storm.. I hope it was a useful and informational tool. Comments or Suggestions welcomed. By the way.. Bellingham, Washington got some snow, thanks to Brian's report.. if you guys received snow, send me reports and I will make a storm report. Take Care!

Major Forecast Bust

Wow, the NWS overdid everything by issuing a Winter Starm Warning for 4-8 inches and we get nothing. I had an idea things weren't going right after watching Mark Nelsens forecast. He pointed out that the air in the Gorge wasn't as cold as it should be to bring in some good snow material. I saw this fall apart at the last minute and I became victim to the ill advised models that showed cold enough air to support snow. We do not expect any snow at all for the valley floor and nothing in the near future either. For everyone who used the comments on the blog, I am sorry I couldn't instantly reply to your important questions. The Blog server im using wouldn't let me post untill after 4:00 AM. Thank you to those who read the blog and who left comments about the site. Im sorry for those who thought they would get snow, but like I said..it just wasn't cold enough. Im going to be more on the conservative side when snow chances strike again. Take Care!