Boo! Surprize Windstorm Hits in Some Area's..

A surprize windstorm hit western Oregon as gust's made it to 36 mph in McMinnville and 50 mph gust's on the Coast. There was scattered damage (fallen trees, flooded parking lots..etc) and if you have any damage please send me pictures or a detailed report. That would be helpful. Now the question is, will we have a repeat tonight and tomorrow morning? There seems to be a rather strong storm once again developing off the coast. It all depends on the position of it but we are guranteed m ore substantial rainfall. Where I am, I have a rain guage set outside and it read 1.5 inches. Other spots around town did not recieve as much do to some rain shadowing going on. I would call it a spotty rain event. More of where that came from later tonight into tomorrow. Buckle down folks, we may be in for a report of this morning! Take Care!

Late Post, Expect a Soggy Halloween!

Sorry folks, but it looks like Halloween will be a wash out, especially with all thr tropical moister entrenched into these shortwaves that are embedded in the warm front. This will bring heavy rainfall, flooding could be a concearn but that is unknown of at this time so will keep a close eye on that situation as it developes. A reminder that the Annual "What Will Winter Be Like" meeting at OMSI will take place on Friday the 4rth of November. I will be there taking notes and trying to make sense of all this wacky science involving this years winter predictions. I am making a National Forecast for Halloween and will expect it to be out on Sunday, the best results will be of then. Take care!

Pineapple Express this comeing week?

It looks like we will be getting significant rainfall Sunday-Monday thanks to a warm front witha tropical connection. This will be a minor so to speak Pinapple Express. This is not a good pattern for Mountain snow and Snow Levels will be up dramatically by this. Halloween looks to be wet folks, so try to get some water proof costumes for the children and use an unbrella. I will be tracking this system, in case we need any flood watches or warnings. I will be keeping an eye out, so check back!

Highs in the 40's!!!!

Todays High reched a whopping 48 degrees! Thanks to the heavy dense fog and the oncoming storm, the temps stayed in the 40's for the first time this fall. You would imagine that things would stay cold if we have another cold front coming in, hmm. But this was unexpected and I thought it was pretty cool. Finally things have got cold, but tomorrow will probaly be warmer, 55-57 range. Still not too bad. Well I am busy so Im sorry for no post yesterday and making this one short. Take care!

One Word to Describe it... "RAIN"

Well, we finally got some more rain and we have to expect tomorrow to be cooler (thank god) so I am pretty happy about that. The coast got hit with more wind again. A non-valley event, which is alright, just as long as it rains. Models for far out are getting into the stormy mode, which I like! I am also observing a coold pool of air in Canada sneaking its way south every model run on the Canadian Model. If I mention this againt hen that means the air has made a good way down and could be a threat. Other than that, the east is getting hit with a pretty wild nor'easter. Good for them eh? It looks pretty impressive on radar. Almost the entire NE is covered with falling precipitation. Thats Amazing! Other than that, expect more rain! Take care!

Second Coastal Windstorm to hit Tomorrow...

Another coastal wind event will take place tomorrow. Staying mostly in the low headlands, but still rather strong so NOAA has issued a High Wind Watch there. Here, we will stay rainy and breezy for Tuesday- Tuesday Evening. We will get a rush of cold air on Wednesday so our lows could possibly reach in the 30's even with showers around. Would be cool to see the temps go to 32;) haha. But they wont! We are in a very active stage of the Jet Stream and will recieve some well awaited rain, and mountain snow. A Snow Advisory for the Cascades could be issued by tonight or tomorrow depending on the dynamics of this storm. I hope we get good snow up there, other than that.. nothing too new. We will stay in a zonal flow all the way into next week with storms arriving eveyr other day with periods of dryness in between. Take care!

Jet Stream Takes Aim...

I lost my shift key so please bare with me with the captilalizations. Anyways though, the recent models suggest a trend that the jet stream takes aim at us and brings in some good storms. This should be a great change for our weather and it makes me smile for once. Now lets see some cold, windstorms..Etc. I know some east coast spots already getting snow. The earliest I have ever seen snow in mcminnville was November 2nd, 2003. Pretty snowy year actually. It didn't stick around for too long but it was nice and I have some pictures of it on the picture page of the site. I do not see snow in the near future of course but it was a good thought. Well enjoy your cloudy Sunday. Take care.

What gets my Frustrated...

Is this weather, I don't want to see anymore sun at all, and I want the temps to go down. And it seems that the cold air above has some kind of shield that wont let cold air come down. Yes it's still October but come on, the last half of October last year was cooler than this last half stretch so far. I mean, I look at these models and the cold air always seems to go strait to the Mid West or East and will not even bother dipping into this half of the country. Never known weather could be this annoying but it sure is. Im pretty sure we will get our chance of cold air, but it wont be happening anytime soon. So please, if it wont be cold, then send me a windstorm or two, and make em' strong. Lets move on, lets head to winter. Seems like mother nature likes to hold on the the past, move on!

Boring day in Weather!

Today is a boring day, too warm, too sunny..and nothing exciting in our line of fire. I have not contacted Steve yet about Jims report but I will do so soon. I also just published a report called "Look to Alaska for any chances of Snow" which describes how I use Alaska's weather to determine if we have any good shots at cold air. Strait up, if Alaska is cold, then expect we get a lot more shots of cold. So hope for that! I am working on other reports and should have those up in a timely manner. Wow, this weather sucks! Thats very unprofessional of me to say, but since this is a blog, I will say what is on my mind! I hope for a change soon, next week looks to cool down and get damp. Until then, take care!

Response to readers questions...

I have got a lot of responses from readers who like Jims report and evidence of a cold winter. Im still sticking with my predictions of about average temperatures, but I want to mention the threat of cold events start mainly around December 20th and last's until Janaury 20th, then from there until March we can see short spouts of cold. And I do expect an Arctic outbreak this winter but how long, how cold and all the details I cannot say, but in my opinion I hope its hell of a blast of cold air! Lets break some cold records! Also, I don't contact Steve Pierce (Dr. Taylors other friend that had his forecast in Georges report) But I can contact him and show him Jims report and get his opinions on it as well. I will post that too. Take care!

Response from Dr. Taylor

I got a response to Jim Hinkles report (Click Here to Read) from George Taylor and this is what he had to say: "Looks pretty convincing. I like the way he took lots of different combinations and displayed them separately, and then did a composite conclusion regarding all the individual maps. I went through many of the same variables and ended up with a composite of the years and did just the one map. The Pacific has changed a lot in the last 2 months, and probably if I were issuing my forecast now I'd back off on the temperatures some. We'll see -- and most of us agree it's going to be an INTERESTING winter! GT" I would have to agree with Dr. Taylor, but it is too late now to change any winter forecast. I made one revision in September, but I don't expect to make any others. I was really impressed with how Jim handled his findings, and I would like to reach out and invite him to speak at the annual "What Will Winter Be Like" meeting at OMSI in Portland on November 4rth at 10 am to 12 pm. That would be very interesting. Other than that, the weather takes a turn by next week and we head into a more active and wetter pattern. Take care!

New findings in this winters patterns...

In a new report by Jim Hinkle (aka Snow_Wizard) he has found great findings to back up his theory of a cold winter in the NW. I find the statistics pretty amazing and will have to have a closer look. I plan to have Dr. Taylor review the report and give his personal opinion on it. If you havn't checked it out, check it out

Cold Weekend?

Ahh the nice GFS Wish Casting models! They start to dig a deep cool trough into the NW by this coming weekend. How cold? Not so sure, and obviously will take into consideration that the models are still pretty bad and its far out. It looks impressive now but will weaken by the days end. This month has been below average to just about average most of the days. A far cry from what was originally predicted. Its been pretty damp too but we have not reached our average monthly rainfall for this month. But its likely we will exceed it by the end of the month which is good. Right now everything looks good, this is way different than last year which sucked really bad. Ok well take care!

Close Call...

That Low Pressure system decided to weaken at a good time to prevent the winds which all in all bummed me out. Although our official wind gust was 35 mph, I still recall that as weak. That was fun though trying to predict what would happen, I generally got most right. Now we are watching a trough next week that could potentially bring cold air to the area, but thats too far off and right now thats probaly not likely. These models had a tough time with this last system and to rely on them for 6-7 days out is insane. What the models do is play with your mind, to make you get excited then when it gets closer by, haha fooled you. Something we all need to get used to. Sometimes I refere the models as a bully. But whatever. Nothing too exciting to report in the weather community, I did a review on yesterdays storm so check that out. I am also waiting on the September Monthly Review by OCS which is awfully late. Take Care!

High Wind Warning for the Coast...

This storm has been hard to track but today is the day we will know if we get strong winds or not. NOAA has already issued High Wind Warnings for the Coast. Now I am keeping an eye out on pressure. I think its likely we can see gusts make it around 40 mph tonight. I have done a lot of research the last couple of days and this track can prove windy for us as well as the coast of corse. I am also waiting on the Forecast Discussion for 2:00 and see what they have to say on whats going on. I have my warning sound on incase NOAA does put out statements or warnings for the Willamette Valley. I will be tracking this 24/7 today so if there are any updates or warning, you will know first! Keep Updated!

Ready or Not? Wind or No Wind..Here it Comes!

This Low Pressure System is extremly dangerous at this point. It looks to be deepening and the path of this storm is uncertain. There is a couple models that say we can see extreme wind, especially at the Coast and others that say the Low will track south with little wind. Honest;y, we do not know at this point and it can end up being nothing other than a nice rainy day or it can blow up into a surprize windstorm. I have been researching windstorm paths like crazy today and there are a couple of tracks that look similar to the models track which can end up being a windstorm. I hate the unpredictability, but I also don't want to put false information out there, I want to be as thourough as I can in predicting this. Again, this can end up being nothing and I can be sitting here wasting my time. But this is exciting. I will have up Windstorm Awareness site that will be informative in many ways. Please go through it and get educated on these things. Take Care!

On A Lighter Note....

I have been tracking this Low Pressure system but now models have it a lil more off the coast which reduces any major threat of a Windstrom on Friday. I have issued an advisory last night letting people know about what could happened as of yesterdays models, which is now downgraded to a knowledgeable message about windstroms and how we are now in Windstrom Season. I will keep an eye though, these things can strike on the last minute. In other news, WOW did you see Denver? They got pumbled with a Snow Storm and got over a foot of snow. Thats amazing for this time of year but not rare. It was amazing to notice that on Saturday their high was 88, Sunday it was 53 then Monday it was 33. WOW, talk about a major shift in the weather, that kind of stuff would make me sick. Ok, well take care!

Possible Windstorm Friday??

I am keeping a close close eye on a system of low pressure that arrives on the west coast. Its expected to amplify, which is dangerous and causes are big windstroms. These deserves close monitoring, I don't want to freak anyone out but I think some people deserve to know what can happen, if things go as according. Here's what NOAA had to say: ".LONG TERM...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTING A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AS A STRONG UPSTREAM PAC STORM AMPLIFIES NEAR THE W COAST. DETAILS STILL EVOLVING BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION...THEN IF THIS FORECAST PATTERN VERIFIES WE SHOULD SEE GOOD RIDGING SUN INTO NEXT MON FOR DRY CONDITIONS. &&" We will closley watch this and give you updates. This most likely will all fall apart like always since the models are having early trouble. Take Care!

I was busy yesterday

I apologize for not posting in the blog yesterday, I was busy observing the Portland Trail Blazers scrimmage at Linfield College. I had a question from someone on the last blog post asking if Dr. Taylor will be revising his Winter Forecast for the October half. He suggested that its too late to revise anything now, so he wont bother. He is still in agreement with the rest of his forecast, mild and wet winter. Off to local weather news, we have hit a time where its going to be boring because of an amplified ridge of high pressure taking place next week. So expect fairly nice fall weather for the first half of next week. I have to keep a close eye on models due to their uncertainty about what's next. We are in a period now where we also have to watch out for Windstorms of any kind that can strike. Remembering the Columbus Day Storm is why we consider this the start of the "windstorm season" here in the NW. I plan to put updates on the site, however, Dr. Taylor has not updated his website with any reports as well as people who make other reports have been slow too. I apologize for that and promise to bring you more reports and updates asap when available. Take care!

Updates to come!

Sorry again for yesterdays mishap. The web page was being very difficult so I could not update your forecast. But I have fixed everything now and expect your forecast's in a timely manner. Also, expect some new reports by George Taylor and be another fella soon. This last week has been kinda boring in the Weather department so expect things to heat up later. Its been quite an interesting pattern we have been in, off and on rain and sun, which is typical fall weather. We are still getting rather weak pacific systems (last weekend an exception) so I am waiting for the more power suckers to bring us a lot more rain, wind, snow, and whatever else it has planned. I will keep you all updated. Take care!

McMinnville Weather is experiencing difficulties

The server is down so the forecast will not be updated for tomorrows (Thursdays) time frame. I apologize for this and it will be fixed in no time for contiunous updates in forecast. You can check out the latest forecast on the National Weather Services webpage linked in my links section of the web site. Sorry!

Smelled like Fall!

Ahh the smell of fires burning to keep houses warm, the colors of the leafs... oh, fall officially came on the 22nd of September. So its that time, smell the air, feel the cold biting at your nose and watch the rains come and go. I also want to say thanks to Cloudman John (John Day) for pointing out a pretty cool snowflake siet. Snowcrystals.com, which has many neat pictures of up close pic's of Snowflakes. Check it out. Well this time of the year the forecast's are getting harder to predict, with storms changing timeing and path everyday, im glad I stuck with a 5 Day Planner rather than a 7. I don't belive in predicting past 5 days, nor predicting big events past 2 days. Things are just uncertain up untill 2 days untill the storm hits. Well enjoy the below average temperatures, now im off to go see if I can catch any of the Blazers down at Linfield. Take care!

56 Was Our High Yesterday....

Wow, this is late October, early November weather taking over last couple of days. If our temps are capable of only getting to 56 on October 2nd, then I think we are capable of having an early Snow Event.. and if we were, it would most likely be in early November because we have got snow as early as Nov. 2 as I have Snow Pics that were taken on that day two years ago. Being more realistic now, I belive we have started our rain season now but its not a one after another at the moment. We have rain possible for Tuesday Night into Wednesday and again on Friday. Of course, like I have mentioned before, the models are still rusty and are having trouble predicting these early rain events, especially on timing. This does not help anyones case in trying to know what the next couple days will be like so we have to take and extraordinary educational guess at times to figure these systems out. I would also like to mention that I have read Dr. John Day's column on Extra Tropical Mid-Lattitude Cyclones and would like to offer him a nice site that deals with past events of such in Oregon. http://oregonstate.edu/~readw/. Take care!

October is here...

Well a good start to October, we ended September with 1.11" of rain yesterday. Thats pretty good. I am continuing to monitor the other systems but I am a bit confused on the timeing so we will have to see. Anyways though, yesterday was a mild rain. I went outside in just my shorts and shit, no shoes or sweatshirt. Its hard to imagine mild when the temps were in the 60's but it felt way warmer than that. Also tomorrows highs will be around 60, now thats pretty chilly for this time of the year. Now about the web page. I have this amatuer weather goo roo named Snow_Wizard in the Farmers Almanac forum who is putting together a report on his beleifes that the NW could very well have a pretty cold winter. I thought first, this guy must be crazy, but I give an equal oppertunity to anyone who puts together a report backed with facts and all so I will be posting that up soon. Well that will do it for today, take care!