The Truth has Finally Arrived!!

Well today is finally the day and what do we have? RAIN! Its about time, rhis is great. Now the rain season has started and I don't see no real end to it any time soon other than a couple of breaks. This is a pretty early start, now I will keep an eye up North to see when we can expect the cold air. I love the rain, especially not seeing it for so long. They said that we could get up to 1.75 inches of rain out of this when its all said and done. So expect a fairly wet October, a change from the original winter forecast I made which I revised earlier in the week. Take care and enjoy!

Here comes fall...

Officially fall began on September 22nd, but tomorrow starts the weather pattern for fall and our temperatures will dramatically shift from the 70's to the 60's for highs. My highs for today were off, I admit the bad forecast, I was thinking that maybe the lower clouds would hang in there for a little longer but they didn't and thus; our temperatures were around 78, not 74. I don't know how much rain we will get, we can end up with one inch when all is said and done. Enjoy the fall weather, I know I will. The cold weather is around the corner and I personally can't wait. Take care!

To come, or not to come..really..that is the question...

As you know, I have been keeping track of this weather system that should arrive by end week and models cannot seem to make up their minds on this. They must be rusty because summer just ended, talk about some tune ups needed. Well it looks like we could see a night soaker on Thursday Night into Friday but again we will just have to wait. Im starting to think that this wont come, but thats the art of weather..the element of surprize! Also, these last two days have been pretty warm, I think we reached 80 yesterday and I thought they were all done. Its safe to say that now, they are officially done. Leafs all around town are starting to get color into them and thus, we will see the leafs fall pretty fast this year unlike last year. Take care!

New Weather Pictures...

New weather pics, check it out. Nice shots of Rainier and Mount Hood. Ok well I took a break on Sunday, I am getting really busy. This weather system this weekend is being stubbourn so it changes everyday and it just pisses me off. Very frustrating, how about for you? Ok well I have updated some parts of the site, hope it stays informational for you. I also added Winter Weather Saftey Awareness Week link from NOAA. Check it out if your not familiar with the NW's winters. I will get some interstesing weather news tomorrow for blog fans like you so keep an eye out for that. Take care!

30's for lows?

Sorry about yesterdays blog, I put in a bit of wishcasting in the bottom half. As far as I am concerned, that system is still on track to get us but its pretty far off and its the GFS model which always makes things over dramatic. Bit of pessimism kicking in, but I will still keep my fingers crossed. Ok, so this morning hit 36 degrees, brr that's chilly! The morning before it got to 38! So whats going on here? Well, we have what we call Radiational Cooling, if the night is clear, the heat has no where to go but up! So now we have longer nights, and the skies have been clear, expect a pretty cold night. I put the low tonight as 35, we have clear nights so we will see if I can get this right. Low temperatures are particularly hard to predict, so I use the dewpoint to help me set a target low. If the dewpoint, any time of the day, usually around the 5:50 time period is in the 30's, we have a good chance to see our temps reach in the 30's. So I look at that, last night it was in the 29 degree area but I assure you that it will not get that cold for awhile as a low. Take care!

Late Post, but here goes..

This is off topic but I was amazed that the Portland Trail Blazers will be hosting their Training Camp in McMinnville starting October 4rth. An NBA team in McMinnville? Thats great, shows you just how local the team is. OK back to weather, I was checking both the GFS and the ECMWF 12z models and they both show a huge system hitting us by October 1st, this means the first big rain for fall. I honestly hope this is true, I want to see the rain! I want to see a lot of weather, im ready for it! What about you? I will keep you posted! Take care!

First day of Fall!

Ahh, a nice and cool day for the first day of fall and for starters...lets discuss Hurricanes! I got a question from an anonymous person and it read: "It is my understanding that hurricanes are named alphabetically. Since Katrina starts with "K," does this in fact mean that there have been several other hurricanes of lesser magnitude, elsewhere in the world, which have started with "L" through "Q," which brings us up to "R" for Rita? Is this a normal amount or is the frequency of hurricanes steadily increasing worldwide? Just wondering..." First off, yes they are named alphabetically and are named from a boys name to a girls name in between each name. NOAA usually sets a list of 21 Atlantic Hurricane names, they have never been over that number before untill maybe this year? If we get more than 21 Hurricanes or Tropical storms we will start naming the Hurricanes roman names. The normal amount of Hurricanes and Tropical storms is 11 yearly. Some belive we are in pattern where we will get above normal amounts of Hurricanes, maybe for 10 more years. Why? I don't belive its Global Warming, and I don't belive in the new worlds definition of "Global Warming". I will write a column on that later. Its just a Climatic Pattern, it comes and goes. Thanks for the questions! Take Care!

Hurricane Rita....

Its a shame that another big hurricane is on track to hit another Gulf Coast State, Texas. The NOAA Hurricane Center has just released statistics that this storm is the 3rd strongest in history, even stronger than Katrina in barometric pressure readings. This is horrible news for Texas, and this is going to be another huge disaster, 3 weeks afrer the first. This isn't good for the U.S. nor Texas, someohow I think our taxes will eventually go up because of this and gas prices will rise even more. Sad story, I will keep all of you updated, my prayers go out to the Gulf Coast people. Take care!

About myself...

Some people may have got "who I am" confused. Dr. John Day brought up the fact that maybe I should state more clearly that I am not an expert or a professional in the immediate field of Meteorology but an advid amateur studying the field in order to get to the status as expert. I do not claim to be anything BUT an amateur and I want to make it clear to others who view the site of who I am. I am a High School Senior, devoted to researching weather around the area and abroad. I am educated enough to make my reports and comments on current and future weather events, or else I wouldn't have made this site and waste my time, or your time on nonsense. Behind every report, I stand by it with my knowledge and information I get to research it. For my forecasts, I use Weather Models..the GFS, ETA's..etc and for long term I use Analog Years as well as SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures/El Nino-La Nina). I hope we all can get this information out and enjoy the site for what it has. Thank you for those who support my site and my interests, take care!

SST's trending a La Nina?

I have taken a look at the current SST's and everyone is going crazy over speculation to whether or not we are heading towards a La Nina and the answer is yes. The temperatures off of S. America are cooling pretty good and continue to do so, this path is projected to continue on some models from the Climate Prediction Center. Its obvious we are heading into a cool period, which boggles my mind to think we will have a mild winter. My best guess is that the first half of winter will start off below average in temp, trend to about average, then drop by January. Jan. will be the coldest month of the Winter, expect an arctic outbreak before the 15th, after the 15th the winter will begin to start to trend to a more mild pattern as well as being wet. That is what I see from by BEST educated prediction. If im wrong, im wrong, but with all the data im looking at, it seems to be the case. Until further notice, this is where I will leave this topic as it can drift into the water cooler news section. Take care!

The Orographic Snow Effect Theory...

I am during an ongoing research project on why McMinnville can be the coldest spot in the Willamette Valley and why we can see more snow events than others in a winter. My theory states that when cold air arrives, it is scraping agsnt the top of the coast range like an ice shaver shaving the ice off your car window. The tall peaks in the coast range gather the cold and cold is heavier so it sinks down and travels down the mountains to pile up near the foothills where McMinnville is located. This would explain why we are colder, a very simple explanantion as I would call it. I am going to do more research to try to prove this and I will post my results on here as soon as I am done. I'll also give a better explanation than what I had to offer in this blog. Very interesting, indeed. Take care!

This and That

Well today I have been busy but I have been going through some of the weather forums and theres a lot of people interested in what this winter will be like. It's a big mystery, honestly we can all say what it could eb like but we just dont know the exacts. SST patterns are a good key factor in helping predict also comparing analog years that resemble this year. Someone asked me since a month now that I have made my winter forecast, do I see any changes that need be be made? Honest answer is yes and that might be the first part of October. Like I stated in a previous post, this month has been about average and cool. So I will have to re look that and make any changes that need to be made.

Need to make the website for everyone...

I am getting a lot of feedback from users out of state. That is good, but now I am going to have to make this site fit their needs for they can come back and be satisfied everytime. I am going to have a page full of different citys around the NW with live weather from Weather.com. If you want your city on this page then email me. I love feedback and discussions, I also will allow people out of state to send in their pictures and I will post them. Today ahs been pretty chilly, I was off for the first time since I started forecast's so thats something I need to investigate. I hope that I can give you guys everything you need. I will look for articles to post in my next blog that are interesting and that deal with weather of the NW. Take care!

Words on Weather

I heard an interesting question by a peer and it was "Can Oregon get Hurricanes?" I have answered that in my latest Column "Are We in for a Extreme Winter?" Yes, we get what we call Extra Tropical Mid-Latitude Cyclones which have some characteristics as a Hurricane but does not form like one. We get strong low pressure systems that deepen and if they come at a certain angle right off the Oregon Coast, then you will get a windstorm. How strong of winds? Depends on the situation, timing and position. In 1962 we received a huge windstorm, the infamous "Columbus Day Storm." That was compared to a Category 3 Hurricane and beat it out. Interesting huh? Well I will write a report on Windtsorms and post it in the Weather Interactive section of the site. I will inform you when that happens for you can get better educated on that. Some of my other peers interestingly said that since all of these disasters are happening, it feels as if we are due for one soon. Quite scary to think about but true. We are due for one unfortunately and all's we can do is cross our fingers and hope it all prolongs. Ok well take care everyone!

New Report Out!

Sorry for the late post, I have just released a report on this winter. Its nothing too new from what we have been discussing but outlines more of the extreme weather events that are possible this winter. I also recieved an email and wanted me to join the Farmers Almanac and other web Forums to post my predictions and all so don't be surprized if you see me surfing around in there. I am keeping an eye out on a pretty good looking weather system later next week, looks strong but seems to be aimed a little more north of us so we'll how far this goes. Take care!

On Target...

I have made the observation that my High's prediected for the day are pretty much on target. Maybe 2 degrees off on days but the point for a high temperature is to give you a target at where to expect the range of temp. Its ok to have a high 3 degrees(+/-) but any more than that should be looked at and figured out. Its great to know that my predictions are on target and that I can give you guys a forecast you all can rely on. I take pride in my work and I strive to be successful everyday. I thank you all of whom check back everyday and read the content on my site, you make this site the best. If you guys have any considerations of anything that can fufill your weather needs, please feel free to email me them and I will try to get that up and running in no time. Take care!

An Early Fall, Cold October?...

Well, I think I MIGHT need to go over my first half of the Winter Weather predictions as a surprising cold and below average September is taking place. I belive its safe to say that we can be out of the 80's all year with maybe an exception tomorrow. We have begun to be in a cold showery pattern which has cought me off gurad. I can't say for sure that this will lead into a cold october but I will look into that by the end of this month and if this pattern continues I am going to have to tweak my forecast and make a report. A lot of color changes in the tree's already so this could lead to an early fall. Take care!

So far so quiet...

As a guilty pleasure I love to watch the radar and keep track of the showers but so far it has been quiet. Temperatures are awfully cold, in the low 60's right now and this should give a boost to an early fall coloring to the tree's. Last year we still had leaves all the way into November, way late for all that. I'm still keeping an eye out for the Thunderstorm potential and see if that pans out, I may have to edit my forecast for today but I will keep an eye out till the next Forecast Discussion is out at 2 or so. Also, not weather related, MTV is having a huge benefit concert for Hurricane Relief and has a lot of good music so tune in at 8 on MTV. Take care!

Cooled down alright...

Today was pretty chilly, high was 67. 2 degree's short of today's forecast I made. Pretty close though, other than that there was no thunder which bummed me out, im a big fan for thunder and lightning. I am going through with tomorrow's forecast and checking how that stands as of current models. Also I couldn't post a blog early because the site was down so I am sorry forf the late post. The site is running pretty again, I still need to fix the RSS Feed of the Weather Watches and Warnings on the front page, it works but there is this "A" in front of it and it bugs me. Take care everyone and drive safely in the rain.

Finally some forecast's!

After about 3 weeks of being up, the forecast's will start tomorrow...and boy I have a big task in front of me with this sucka. What I found funny was that Weather.com had our forecast as windy for tonight with winds up to 30 MPH. NOAA dosn't say that strong of winds, who makes Weather.com's forecast's anyways? A computer? Well however they do it, it's not that reliable, changes everyday...sometimes even a dramatic chance form sunny and fair, 75 degrees to Showers and Wind with 66 degree weather. Its rediculous. Ok well no big news yet so keep posted, take care!

Weather Wrap-Up...

Just a reminder to those who check in dailey that sometimes I wont be posting a blog due to the lack of new news and all but PLEASE keep checking back often because winter is coming up and there will be more to write about. For now, we expect a low pressure system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and bring a CHANCE for measurable precipitation this weekend. I was watching a news weather report (KGW I belive) and they even mentioned that we could see the last 80 degree day tomorrow for the year, but I wouldn't go so far to say that right now. So if you have any back to school weekend plans, then keep checking back for updates. Also a reminder that this site will become fully functional on September 9th, but could be moved up to the following Monday but we will see. Take care everyone!

No more 90 degree days!

I think its safe to say that our 90 degree days are finally over while a more average pattern takes over. I already see some colors changing in tree's, so we could be in for an early fall. Fall is a very beautiful time as well as spring so get those camera's out and take pictures. If you take any good leaf color pictures, please send them to me and I will put them on the pictures page. I have also set a donations link to the American Red Cross if you feel like you want to help Hurricane Katrina victims. Other than that, take care!

Taylors Winter Forecast, Part 2 (REVIEW)

Well now its out and official so lets take a look at it. First off, last year was a surprize year.. no one thought it would be soo dry and I don't blame Taylor at all for mispredicting that. I belive all Meteorologist's got it all wrong so that makes up for that. Second of all, he says we are in for a Mild and Wet Winter? Well i'd have to disagree because I belive the first half of Winter will be cool and then I can see it warming up in the second half. Third of all, no snow events? I kind of find that hard to belive, I made some percentages and we have atleast a 73% chance of Snow from a Trace to 1 inch. So I can gurantee you we can see atleast that once this winter. But as you all know, you cannot predict exactly how much snow so I wont even try to get into too much details on that. George also agrees on good chances to see extreme events this winter, including the infamous Extra-Tropical Cyclones (aka Windstorms) as well as floods and ice events. So as I leave you to that note, expect a wild winter and be prepared. Take care everyone and enjoy his Forecast!