Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Low Snow Levels this Weekend into Next Week!

Snow Levels could go as low as 1500ft this weekend and next week, possibly even lower! The Jet will sag to our south, allowing cold air aloft to sink into the area. How cold will this air be? Im still not too sure yet, but everything depends on how cold the air above will be once it drops into place. Our highs will stay in the lower 40's, pretty chilly but as you know, not cold enough to support snow at the moment. Talk about a change in the weather pattern. Other than that, to answer a comment from James, to look at models, you have to know what your looking at and know what your looking for. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is a nice tool to have for 5 days out, more than that..you can count on dramatic last minute changes so hince that you only look 5 days out using that model. To get cold air in the NW, you have to watch out for deep dips in the jet stream which shouldnt be hard to find, and if that dips down pretty far and has negative thickness, then you can count on cold weather and potential snow for the low lands. Another model I tend to use is the Canadian Model. On my forecast page, I have links to those models. I look at the Animation and watch the blue (on the top right of the animation) and see if that comes close. The blue outlines the Arctic Air Masses and is a great tool for that purpose. Another popular model is the Euro, or "ECMWF" That helps a lot too in confirming the GFS. If they both align, then you have a good chance of that certain event happening. My advice for you is to look online for more information and see if they can simplify the models for you. Thanks for the question. Also a note, I will not be updating the site Today until Friday due to the Holiday. Take Care and have a GREAT thanksgiving.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous8:56 AM

    wheb you say to watch the thickness, what are you looking for/at?
    thanks

    ReplyDelete