Things are starting to get interesting..

We have Mark Nelsen stating there will be no snow at all for the Valleys and we have the NWS with a Warning of up to 4-8 inches for the Valley. Now the concearn here is the winds. Right now we are still at a NW wind direction and second of all, its not the coldest in the gorge at the moment. So what does this say? It will be ANOTHER close call for snow. I firmly believe that it will start out as rain. But if its going to snow, we are going to need more cold support than we have now. I am starting to get a little more concearned, it will be a nail biter...

8:50 Update

Winds are now switching to the NE and we will start to see temps go down quite a bit. Right now at the office, temperature reads as 37.0 F. I belive that my Thermometer is not the best so it may be a bit cooler than that right now. Moisture is still expected to reach us early tomorrow morning. We still expect about 3-8 inches of snow possible before it transitions to rain by Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Evening. I will be updating the warning on the front and will be updating the forecast.

7:45 Update...

We are still seeing light wind in the area, wind chills are reaching the upper 20's with some of the gust's. Temperatures will start to decrease more and more as the wind picks up. The next update will come out at around 8:45 to 9:00 when the NWS releases its final Weather Discussion for the day. I will be schedualing nightly updates one at 2:30 AM and one at 5:00 AM. I also will be adding a school closure link on the top of the front page for anyone interested in that. If you have any questions or request's then please comment.

Winter Storm Coverage...

Its 6:45 PM right now and skies are a bit foggy in area's. The current temperature reading here is 37.0 F. A light N wind is blowing, it will turn to an NE/E wind later. We are watching the moisture start to develope in Southern Oregon. We may start out as rain here first but it will transition to Snow. The moisture may reach us a bit earlier than expected so we'll have to keep an eye out on this. Keep your page here for more updates...

Snow Snow Snow!

Wow, as I thought it couldn't get more exciting, it has! Now Winter Storm Watches for the area are going up and we are expecting a decent storm to hit the area and dump possibly 2-5" of snow. This could be our first big Snow Storm of the season and certainly not the last. I will be updating reports on the front page constantly and will be taking pictures of the snow. I will have a lot of juicey tidbits on here later. Hope you guys get prepared and buy some hot chocolate, you'll need it. Im very busy with this storm today so I will cut it short here, take care and drive safe!

Technical Difficulties Prevent Blog Post's

I am afraid I may have lost peoples interest in reading the blog due to the lack of post's. This is because of technical difficulties in preventing me to submit a blog post. I also have been having problems with the site and so I hope I fixed all of that. I apologize for this. Weatherwise, wow..a close call yesterday. It snowed for 5 minutes on the west side of town then transitioned to rain/snow mix..then just to rain. Now, we are watching this storm come in for Thursday morning and may bring the same stuff but with colder air behind this time to support the chances of snow here to the valley floor. This would mainly be a morning event, then the snow killer moves in (the dreadful South Winds) and turns all those nice crystals into a liquid. Just how much snow? Maybe 2-4 inches before turning to rain. We will see, I do not count my hopes up on such events like these because the chances are far greater than when you know for sure if your gonna get the snow or not. I will be updating you with the warning on the front page. Take care and drive safe!

Snow in the Forecast? Whats that about?

We have many possabilities for Snow but whats holding us back? Well in order for us to get snow so early in the season is that the ingrediants have to be PERFECT, I mean, not one mistake in order to see snow. Those ingrediants look to be 90% there by Monday. So we are not perfect yet and thus; we'll keep it at a low chance to see snow in Western Oregon. The West Hills and Coast Range could see some good snow, but we will see for now. Another question on the models that I explained in the last Blog post "What is thickness and what do I have to look at?" Well the thickness is how cold it will get. if your thickness gets below 530 then your gonna be in good shape. Below that, even better for cold. Other than that, I hope you all had a great thanksgiving..I know I did. It was a cold one though, Highs were only 40 degress in McMinnville. Well I will be updating the site as the day goes on, so expect things to get back on track. Take Care!

Low Snow Levels this Weekend into Next Week!

Snow Levels could go as low as 1500ft this weekend and next week, possibly even lower! The Jet will sag to our south, allowing cold air aloft to sink into the area. How cold will this air be? Im still not too sure yet, but everything depends on how cold the air above will be once it drops into place. Our highs will stay in the lower 40's, pretty chilly but as you know, not cold enough to support snow at the moment. Talk about a change in the weather pattern. Other than that, to answer a comment from James, to look at models, you have to know what your looking at and know what your looking for. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is a nice tool to have for 5 days out, more than that..you can count on dramatic last minute changes so hince that you only look 5 days out using that model. To get cold air in the NW, you have to watch out for deep dips in the jet stream which shouldnt be hard to find, and if that dips down pretty far and has negative thickness, then you can count on cold weather and potential snow for the low lands. Another model I tend to use is the Canadian Model. On my forecast page, I have links to those models. I look at the Animation and watch the blue (on the top right of the animation) and see if that comes close. The blue outlines the Arctic Air Masses and is a great tool for that purpose. Another popular model is the Euro, or "ECMWF" That helps a lot too in confirming the GFS. If they both align, then you have a good chance of that certain event happening. My advice for you is to look online for more information and see if they can simplify the models for you. Thanks for the question. Also a note, I will not be updating the site Today until Friday due to the Holiday. Take Care and have a GREAT thanksgiving.

Interesting Pattern Setting Up...

Looking at all the models as always, there have been patterns where we could look at snow. Right now, snow seems too distant as of current GFS run. But its not out of the question. Our highs should stay in the 40's all of next week..maybe even sticking into the lower 40's. It will be interesting to see the next model run (GFS 00z compared to the 06z) tomorrow. Right now, the long range forecast is unsettled and cannot make any predictions as of right now. Good news though, the ridge is on track to die by Thursday and be replaced by a couple of troughs. I am also a Forecaster at this great site called The Weather Service and its a page where you can find forecast's and discuss your weather in a nice enviorment all in one. www.theweatherservice.com. I am in there quite often and if you would like to catch up with me sometime then get into the forum and PM me or leave a message on the forum. Take Care!

Rain in sight, but snow? We'll see.

Now I am a skeptic when snow comes intot he picture so that mean I will start off with rain. Thursday night into Friday is when our ridge breaks down and we get in a pretty good storm. This storm could draw cold air from the east into our region and set up a pretty interesting weather event, but for now we are sticking to some rain for our area finally. We don't want to be greedy and ask for snow when we have had this ridge for almost 2 weeks with not even a drop of water. Washington looks like they will have the best chance for lowland snow next week and snow levels there could potentially reach 500ft. I would like snow measurments from Western Washington if you guys up there get any. Try not to rub it in. Other than that, the GFS is getting crazy with a couple of interesting patterns. The GFS has been unstable with flip flopping cold patterns with zonal patterns. For now though we are just going to concentrate on the zonal pattern and try to get some good rains and mountain snows in. Take Care!

30 Days Until Winter!

It dosn't seem like it but 30 more days. When I say it dosn't seem like it, I meant by the weather. At this time we should usually be cloudy with rain. But I do have some good news about this ridge, it will die by Friday and bring in some short waves in, meaning more rain and showers. Now, there has been differences in the models and I feel like I am gonna jynx any chance of it happening but some of the models bring in some modified arctic air into the area by December. Yes, its way too far out, but the last two models have had the same trend and we'll just have to wait and see. The GFS is a bit iffy so I wont be saying too much more about that untill 5 days out and it still has it come in. I'll have to admit though that this weather has brought in some beautiful fall weather. Enjoy it now! I will keep you guys posted about any new developments. Take Care!

JUST A REMINDER: Spotters Needed!

Shout out to kT, you left me a comment and is interested in being a spotter, click that link below and fill the form out for records. You never left an email. I want some of you folks to know that I am still in need for weather spotters around the NW and others, if interested then sign up here. Also, I need your input on the website, I need as much opinions and suggestions as I can get to make the site better for you and others. I will be making a survey to question you guys on the quality of the site and would be greatly appreciated if you would take it when it comes out tomorrow. Come on, get more involved! Now, someone in the blog had mentioned the fact that the water in the NW part of the Pacific has been warming.. a need to worry? No, its not something I would be worrying about, that wont have much effect on us and our weather for this winter. I am keeping an eye though out on the Models and it looks like we could get into a retrogression next week that could bring us some pretty cold air. Pretty interesting developments, stay tuned! Take care!

Food for Thought....

Thanks to whoever submitted this piece to me, it would be nice if you could leave a name for I can give the credit to you and not just some stranger. This writing below is not by me, but it is very very good in information for those of you who worry too much about this ridge! --Looking back at a some of the consistently coldest winters in NW Oregon and SW Washington, 1949-50 and 1985-86 actually stand out with similarities to this season so far. Both of these years had very mild preiods, most likely assoicated with anomalously strong high pressure ridges, in the month of November. In fact,the November of 1949, before one of the coldest winters ever recorded in Portland, was actually quite dry and mild, with temperatures in the mid and even upper sixties for the first six days of the month and temperatures remaining well above normal the entire month. Same with November 1985. Just weeks before the notorious Thanksgiving cold snap and snowstorm of '85, PDX was basking in temps in the mid sixties for consecutive days. This leads me to wonder, do mild November spells mean a sudden plunge in temperatures to come? Well this has been the setup so far this year, and by the looks of it was probably the same in 49-50 and 85-86. Zonal flow through October and some of November allows arctic air to beome bottled up to the north and grow colder and colder. Check out the temps in Fairbanks the past couple weeks if you don't believe me. Suddenly, a ridge pops over the west, dislodging this icebox and bringing chunks of it down over the east. After this ridge sits over us for a couple weeks or more, giving a dry, mild period, like we're in now, retrogression occurs and bam, we've got ourselves a ridge out over the mid-pacific, directing on its western flank airmasses of arctic origin straigt from the Yukon to the Northwest. By the looks of it this is what happened by the end of November '49 and '85, and it may happen again by the end of November '05. Check out the latest GFS and accuweather.com forecast for Portland for the weekend after Thanksgiving. Snow, highs in the thirties? Food for thought...

I See Light at the End of the Tunnel...Eventually

In regards to this stubborn and surprising Blocking Ridge, as all of you know, this has been a popular subject in our discussions and will continue to be so as time goes on. Now, looking at the latest Euro and GFS, models break down the Ridge by the end of next week. So expect a pleasant thanksgiving week. This will be a tough ridge to break through and it is fairly unlikely but not unheard of for this kind of pattern to occur while we are close to a La Nina like state. Although other opinions say otherwise, looking at all the other indices such as the SST, NAO and others seem to discount the likes of such strong ridges. But it is not uncommon, such that Brian, a daily reader of the blog brought up to me that Seattle experienced a strong ridge like this in 1995 and look at what happened later that year (Snow Events and Severe Flooding). So this may be a derterrant for now, but I still expect a fairly good winter with good cold outbreaks, and maybe for extended periods at times? We will keep an eye out on this. Also in the news is the fact that we have not had fog in the morning as predicted. Why is this? Well honestly..I don't know. Something I am going to research right after I get done, which is, well right now. Take Care!

Second Half of the Winter Predictions Out!

!!To Find the Second Half of the Winter Weather Predictions, click Here and scroll down to where it says Second Half Predictions. Thought I would clear the confusion up. !! I finally posted the 2nd half to my predictions yesterday, sorry about the wait. I found that the last half will be pretty interesting in how it unfolds so keep an eye on it. Also, I am not sure why but a lot of people have been telling me that they think this winter will be ruined because of this blocking ridge pattern that we are in now. Let me tell you this; winter has not even started yet, so why freak out? Sure, its bothersum that the ridge is in place and does cry for concearn but it wont last. By the beginning of December, you can count on a zonal flow to return eventually and bring in more storms. But I am confused at why this ridge is so strong when indices point out that the ridge shouldn't even be there in the first place. So take your opinions and sit tight, we'll see what happens. I bombed my second half of the predictions so expect a low grade on that. Never saw that coming. Take care!

27 Degrees This Morning!

Got pretty chilly here, 27 read my thermometer this morning. Anyways, I overshot the high's for today because I thought there was going to be more fog but obviously I was wrong. Sorry folks on that mistake. Also, for those of you who are patiently waiting for my last half of the Winter Forecast, hold on because I need to do the finishing touches today and post it up. We also have an Air Stagnation Advisory in effect due to the lack of winds so the air you breath from now untill thursday will be dirty. Those who have breathing problems should be advised to stay indoors untill this goes away. Busy day, so take care!

Fog Inversions to set up for the week!

As the ridge sets up as we speak, we will see a foggy week ahead of us. Why? Well when its clear and the ground is moist, we see fog develop. But as the fog develops, warm air above traps the fog and cold down below causing the mountains and the coast to be way warmer than the valleys. Also know as Inversions. So expect a foggy week and cool temperatures as highs and maybe start to see the sunshine more earlier by the end of the week. If you remember, this happened a lot last year here in McMinnville. Ok I have a question to answer by a Blog Viewer (haha that's what you are right now) and its by "Chinookwind" and he states: "ok, i'll bite....so many times we have seen this pattern set up here in the PNW over the past few years...coolish, wet fall then, boom, the ridge sets in and we are basically high and dry for most of the rest of the winter. i am just new to weather and dont understand enough about the models and their secrets, however...this ridge out there seems enormous and very strong...can you post links to other years where a ridge of this type was short lived, with similar indices and we ended up with a good year? by good year i mean a normal year with good mountain snows for the next seasons water supplies.we barely skated thru this last summer. " First of all, its not uncommon to see these types of ridges form. It happens most of the time in November actually. This is not the end of the winter, because winter hasn't even started so whats all the fret about? Sure i'd love to see snow in November but that is not the likely case this year. Second of all, I see this ridge breaking down by the 25th up to the end of the month as of current models. It also looks like a miny retrogression at the end of the ridge that could possibly bring cold air into the region but again, that's just too far off. I tried to find records that you have asked for but I haven't had too much free time to do so, so im gonna ask Jim Hinkle to chip in with that section and will get back to you. Any other questions? Take Care!

Missed an Update, Sorry Folks.

Sorry about missing the update for the forecast page last night. I had some problems going on last night that needed to be taken care of. I would rather not go into discussion about that as it has no relation to weather! But on that note, another little storm came by last night and brought more rain and wind. Mountains got more snow, which is good. We are still in for a ridge this week so it should be generally nice or outdoor plans but one problem with that. Fog Inversions. Thats when we stay fogged in all day with our highs in the 40's but you travel up the mountains the temperature gets warmer and warmer. So we could be dealing with that this week so it may spoil the sun. Once the ridge breaks somewhere around thanksgiving then we should be getting back to the zonal flow or less likely, a retrogression. We'll see. Take Care! --Next Forecast Update at 9:00 PM.

Drying Ridge Sets Up for Next Week...

For those who have had just about enough with the rain, well heres your break. A blocking ridge will set up over the PNW starting Sunday Night and lasting until Thursday... No cold or wet weather is expected in the near future and this is something I do not want to see this winter. It seems that the east will get their cold and snow soon as the Blocking Ridge here will allow an arctic mass to lean towards the Great Lakes region. Hope they enjoy that, im sure they will. So there is nothing really to report here today, other that your dry weather is soon to come while my cold weather yet awaits another day. Take Care

Snow Next Week? Accuweather says so!

According to Accuweather.com they have snow in the 15 day outlook starting on Nov. 18 I belive. First off, that's 9 days out for crying out loud. Second of all, I don't see anything to point to any kind of snow here in the valley within the next 10 days. FYI to those folks who use the Accuweather site, their site calculates the forecasts by computer models, not by human. So by tomorrow or the next day I can assure you that on the 18th, wont have snow anymore and in fact, it will keep getting pushed back until its not in the forecast anymore. Hate to burst peoples bubbles, as much as I want snow..but realistically..don't see it happening anytime soon. I hope that this will clear anyone who is excited or confused about the situation. But thanks for the person who warned me by emailing me what the saw. Anyone who does notice that stuff please contact me and I will give you the facts. Thanks again and take care!

It Finally Hit 32 Degrees This Morning!

Finally, the official end to the growing season (usually the first freezing temp of the Fall) arrived this morning when temps reached 32 degrees. I also call this the start of the Snow Season here because we have reached a freezing point and now temperatures wont have trouble making it to 32 and tonight, expect more freezing temps in the valley. Good news for me, I don't know about you. Also we are keeping an eye out on a strong westerly flow this weekend that could form a low and cause Cyclogenesis which is; the rapid deepening of a Low Pressure system and these are what usually give us the big wind storms. Of course I am very pessemestic about this due to the fact its quite a ways away and that every forecast that had a good wind event here has changed at the last minute. We'll see, Take Care!

2nd Blog of the Day!

From the previous blog below, I will add one last tidbit and that was from Brian, thanks Brian for the spell check on this guy! "I have noticed several errors in the two posts by "Anonymous". First of all, Bozo the Clown is a proper name, so the word "Clown" should be capitalized. It was not. Second, the word "grammar" is misspelled, it is with an "a", not an "e". Finally, the "your" should be "you're" (short for "you are".). Finally, the phrase "high schooler" is also improper, there is no word "schooler". So Grant, I think this person is far worse with spelling and grammar then you are."--Brian Again, if your lost, check out the post below this and read the comments left by some goons trying to show off. Anyways, weather related information... I am still confused about why NOAA says we will have a mild and drier winter than is predicted by all the other folks in the NW. I think their problem is that they have no idea on what the climate is like in the NW and tend to lose track of all the other small details like; The Gorge and how it effects cold air from getting here (Western Oregon) and how wet on average we are. Pretty much, expect a cool and wet winter. Good chances for snow in the valleys as well as good snow in the mountains. Take Care, and thanks again Brian, ha ha:)!-- By the way Brian, its "than" not then.."So Grant, I think this person is far worse with spelling and grammar then you are" --"Then" is past tense, im not in the past...take care;)

Cheap Shots...

Im not sure whether these last comments were here to offend me or to give me some good ol' advice but I can assure you when writing this blog that spelling is not my top concern. I tend to get on one subject and go from there. I type pretty fast and yeah im going to make some careless mistakes. This isn't the "Spelling Blog.." I can find one for you though if that bothers you so much. These are my thoughts and my opinions, a lot of people can disagree with me or make their own opinions, but if you are going to step up and make a comment, then don't hide behind the computer..tell us, well, me, who you are. Anyways, I apologize to my other readers, but I had to take the time and tell some of these nice folks who love to share their opinions my reasons why I don't care too much for spelling, just as long as you know what it's trying to say. Try typing fast someday, you'll understand. Take Care!

Temps have been below average for somtime now...

I have noticed that our transition to fall came quite early. We are already expecting Highs to make it only in the 40's tomorrow. Last year our highs stayed cold due to fog all day, this year is a different case. I can say that at the Winter Meeting, the word cold came up a lot. Gave me confidence that we will have a pretty good winter in terms of cold and chances for snow. Now yesterday, that storm was a total dud. I mean we got pretty gusty winds last night but that was it. Things came out too over dramatic by the models and things were thrown everywere, even the possibility of winds around 60 mph (which was what started the early morning High Wind Watch in the first place) then things slowed down and it all went smooth I suppose. What a bummer, we didn't even get the 2 inches of rain predicted. Well anyways, we should be getting a little beak this week with some breathing room between storms here and there. Hey, to end the blog, lets end it on this thought. Snow on Thanksgiving? Its possible...

Finally! A High Wind Watch!--Or Not

UPDATE: Right when I posted this, NOAA decides to cancel the High Wind Watch because the sustained winds were below 40 mph I guess. Very pissed off, do they have bozo the clown working for them or what??? Learn to make the right call, I have so much more I want to say but its not appropiate. Still expect strong winds though. What I have been looking for in a long time has finally come! A High Wind Watch for the Willamette Valley. This excites me because we have a possible good sized windstorm in the making and we can get gusts up to 60 mph. This low has saved me, not really but I am pretty excited to see how this all falls into place. Of course I will be keeping track of this storm and letting all you folks know what to do and whats going to happen. This also excites me because in my winter prediction for early november I predicted a wind storm. That would be awesome to actually get that down. People thought I was insane for actually predicting an event, but I felt that we were way over due for a windstorm and did some research to come up with early november as a likely target. Well folks, keep posted and I will take pictures, especially of any damage.

Expect Snow, Wind and Lots of Rain!

This winter will be full of surprises, including the possibility of snow! In about every presentation, they seem to believe that we have a higher than normal chance for seeing a Snow Event. One Meteorologist, Kyle Dittmore (spelling?) predicted 2 snow events of the magnitude of 2003's winter blast. Wow, that may be a little overdone but you just never know. They also come to the conclusion that we will be above normal in precipitation (no kidding?) and about normal in temps. Think of this meeting like a Weather All Star game, with the likes of Mark Nelsen(KPTV), Matt Zaffino (KGW), Jim Little (Former Koin Meteorologist), Dave Sweeney (Great Guy!) and Ron Peterson of KGW. George Taylor of course was there as well, talked to him for a bit. All in all, this winter will be great for weather lovers, or as mark would call us... "Weather geeks." Haha, maybe for him, for me I am an extremist for weather. It was a fun meeting, but the ride home was awful, heavy downpours..could hardly see 10 ft in front of me at times. We also have a flood watch in place for Saturday Night into Sunday. Keep you posted on that. Take Care!

Winter Weather Meeting and More Rain..Wind Too?

Im attending tomorrows winter weather meeting at OMSI, feel free to show up at 10 AM until 12. Should be interesting! Now, to more frustrating news once again. Wind or no Wind on Saturday. Currently there is this Low that will be developing rapidly off the coast on Saturday and when you hear that, usually you immeadiatley think.. WINDSTORM! But WAIT, the NWS has winds so far 15-25 mph which is n-o-t-h-i-n-g. But they did mention the possibility of High Wind watches but did not specify if the Valleys were to be in that. Fact is, NWS still has no idea on these types of events and they are awful at predicting winds. But I don't want to stay on this subject due to the fact that I spent all day yesterday on it. On a good note, the Cascades got plentiful snow and are expecting maybe up to 3 feet of new snow by weekends end. WOW. Early ski season on the horizon. It will be a good year for mountain snows. Hopefully we can near our average snowfall for the mountains this year. Take Care!

Wind or No Wind, Make up Your MIND!!

NOAA lately, I belive, have been a bit wish casting in their predictions due to the fact that they predict high winds couple days out and every single time they downgrade the wind speeds at the last minute. For instance, they predicted 15-30 mph winds with 40 mph gusts yesterday not its 15-25 mph with 35 mph wind gusts...weak. I also don't liek the fact that NOAA only updates their web site 4 times a day (2:00 AM, 9:00 AM, 2:00 PM and 9:00 PM). They give little information and I called them yesterday to get an opinion on the winds that they predicted and they said "Uhh, well the winds is what we have predicted..thats what will happen, no need to discuss that any further" and yet they downgrade the winds the next day. Awful front desk management. I think that place needs an overhual, but thats just me so far. Take care!

Urban Flooding, Heavy Rains Reek Havoc...

Wow, what an active week in weather in McMinnville. First, a wind storm, then heavy rains to lead to water lying on the streets. On my way to campus, I almost hydroplained because I miscalculated the water ahead of me. A lot do that so, slow down when you see large area's of water on the street. Thought I'd give you that advice. Now to top that off, NOAA is predicting 20-30 mph winds with 40 mph+ gusts possible for Wednesday Night into Thursday. With, once again, heavy rain. So please be careful out there, and make sure you have all your trees all cut, the hazardous ones that is for they don't make a surprise visit through your roof in case the winds to get pretty wild. Keep posted tot he latest warnings as well. I also want storm pictures so anyone who has any PLEASE send them to me along with a storm report. Take Care!