Yamhill River to Flood, more Rain to come!

The NWS of Portland has issued a Flood Warning for the Yamhill River which is expected to crest at 54.19ft by 4 PM Saturday. This will make the top 5 historical crest's since records began. This also will hover around the 1996 event, but not as major of course, well at least not right now. 50.00ft is the Flood stage so we will be well above that. Take caution when driving near the river and other flooded streets. An Urban and Small Stream Flood Warning has been issued for McMinnville again, this means a section of Old Sheridan Road will be closed once again as well as the low laying creek parks. Stay at higher grounds. Last night, we got about 1.04 inches of rain from 8 PM to Midnight...and from Midnight until 11:00AM we have picked up another whopping 1.10 inches of rain. Storm total so far is 2.14 inches. That bumps us up to a HUGE 9.72 inches of Rain this month, since December 18th. Thats well above our monthly average. No droubts this year folks! We don't see an end to this yet, expect more heavy rain tonight and into Sunday. Be careful!

Rain Rain Rain!

So much for High Winds this morning, it was the rain that took the spotlight. Since midnight until 12 Noon, we have had 1.40 inches of rain, WOW. That just shows you how heavy the rainfall was last night. And get this, since December 18th (Our Snow Storm), we have had 7.11 inches of Rain!! Thats another amazing stat with all of this wild weather, we expect flooding in the usualy flood zones such as lower city park and the other creeks around the area, especially near Old Sheridan Road. The Yamhill River is expected to flood some bit before receeding, nothing too major. Welcome to a normal Oregon winter folks, now we need some cold air. Right now it looks like we may get a shot of cold air by January 9th-10th, thats just too far out, but something to think about. Take Care!

High Wind Watch in Effect...

High Wind Watch is in effect at the moment for the Willamette Valley. Looks like this will be a very potent storm. The actual winds wont be here until tomorrow morning and afternoon. 40 sustaind winds with 60+ gust's. Expect power outages and uprooted trees from this wind event. I will issue a special weather bulletin on the site at 2:30 to let more people know. I will be changing the batteries in my weather station, so if power goes out I still have readings coming in. More updates to come..

IM BACK!!

Hope you all had a great Christmas! I got some books on weather and a hand held anemometer. It shows wind/gusts/windchill and temp. Very useful tool for I can do temp readings up in the mountains. Great for my research too! Anyways I am looking to update the site real soon, I need to put up more articles and update the forecast page. Another situation unfolding as we speak as a strong low pressure system is approaching the Pacific NW. The potential of strong winds is one again a fact, so we could be looking at 35-45mph gusts so far, Hurricane force winds can be expected on the coast so be very careful! Will update more later, take care!

Strom Review is UP...

I finally got my storm review up, so go check it out under "Weather News." Other than that, wow, we almost got two inches of Rain yesterday. The creeks did overflow and had minor flooding. Alice reports: "my 24 rainfall total is 2.18", my total rain since 12-21 is 7.30". my creek is now a river...but we are safe--Alice" Be careful! We still have flood watches up, but I don't think the Yamhill River will be a problem with this any time soon. I will be getting storm pictures up very soon so sit tight with that. I am off for vacation now, i'll be back Monday. Take Care and have a wonderful and safe Christmas!

A wet week ahead..

After a day off, im ready to combat the weather once more. I am in the process of typing up a storm review for last Sunday. I need to gather more data first. Man oh man, what a wet day it has been, we have picked up .86 of an inch of rain so far today and we have totaled 2.16 inches since Monday. We expect more before the weekend. Other than that, we need to watch out for localized creek flooding. That could be an issue soon, I saw the creeks nearby start to swell. Anyone living near creeks should keep an eye on that. We expect maybe a little break from all the action come Christmas. We do not expect any good chances for snow for awhile now, sorry to all those snow lovers. And we need more Weather Spotters, that information from you folks helps a lot into understand what's going on. Very helpful. Thanks and take care!

The Day After....

Wow, what a busy and exciting day yesterday was. The snow didn't necessarily take me by surprise, but I notice we would most likely see snow after I looked at the upper atmosphere reading, such as Timberline Lodge and Government Camp. When I saw that both of their temps were way below freezing, I knew we were going to see snow, but it did start out as sleet in the beginning. Our Official reading here for snowfall was .75" of the white stuff. The snow started falling around 1:15 PM and lasted to about 3:20 PM. Shortly thereafter, we started to see an increase in traffic accidents due to the roads freezing over. I tried to stand on my road before almost falling on my head. Cars with no traction tires, it was like suicide. It got pretty bad, but it was a nice little snow event in the end. Later into the night, the second wave came in, it started out as freezing rain but quickly turned to rain after moderating the upper air, as well as the surface. So, for the year..we have a .75" record so far, more to come later in the winter is probaly a sure bet. Take care!

More info..

Looks like we will be getting freezing rain later. I just saw some rain droplets out the window, so the upper air over us must have already moderated. Here's an update summary for Vancouver, Washington: Up in Vancouver we had heavy snow around 2-4:30 pm, with winds gusting to 31 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. We had about 0.75" of snow/sleet accumulation. Never really saw any freezing rain. Tyler Thanks Tyler.. I am updating my forecast now..this will be the last blog post of the night. Remember to drive slow if you have to, and expect freezing rain later. --Grant L.

Second Wave Storm

Ok, as far as of now; it seems that the atmosphere above has not warmed up one bit. Its 19 at Timberline Lodge (6,000ft) and its 20 at Government Camp (3,000ft). It is Currently 30.9 right now and we still have winds. The next system looks to arrive about 4 AM maybe and if so, and the upper atmosphere stays cool as well as we stay below freezing, we could see a second burst of snow. By mid morning, it would turn to freezing rain as the Atmosphere above warms. By afternoon, we could be looking at just regular rain as everything mixes out with the SW Flow. The morning commute looks messy and if you can stay home, then do it. I was already involved in a small incident that occured when I got hit from behind as that car hit an ice patch. No damage or harm done. I will be putting up storm photos later, so you guys could check that out.

Snow has tapered off

The snowfall has stopped, about a half an inch accumalation in McMinnville. Driving sucks, stay home as I keep saying. We expect another system to come in later tonight, it may start out as snow again, but things will start to warm up later and turn to freezing rain. Any reports would be welcomed.

Almost the end of the tunnel

The radar shows the end about 30 miles away so the snow should be tapering off in the next 45 minutes. We have about a half inch so far. Many accidents reported. We may have a seconf shot later tonight as a second system comes through, but it will be much warmer and this is where we trasnistion to freezing rain.

Accidents pick up

I got phone calls on traffic, its bad out there folks, people are sliding everywhere, even a report of ice UNDER the snow. Don't drive. Its only gonna get worse before better, a heavy band of snow is just south of us. Current temp is 30.7 with a 25 DP. Don't go anywhere.

More and More snow...

When will it end?? Wait, I don't want it to. Its covering the streets and cars now. Snow is blowing off the roofs, I havn't seen this kind of snow since January of 2004. The radar shows no immeadiate end, out temp reading now is 32.7 and snowing hard. Heres some updates: Sheridan: Heavier snow ...very blowing and sticking..temp now 33.3 at 2:00PM ... winter wonderland shaping up nicely...!!! KEN You can say this was kind of a surprize snow storm, but the thing is..how long will it last? I don't know, lets just enjoy what we have and not be greedy!

Heavy Snow in McMinnville

We are now recieving heavy snow, we expect this snow to last into tonight and eventually switch to freezing rain and then to just rain later tomorrow. More reports: West Hills of Salem: snowing hard in the hills of west salem.

Updates around the region

Still snowing here in McMinnville very very lightly. Here's other reports.. Sheridan: Its 1:30 here in Sheridan and the earlier pellets/sleet have changed to light,blowing snow flurries...temp is going down..now 34.2.....KEN Sherwood: Out in Sherwood we have a light dusting as of 1:54 p.m. If your getting snow, report it!

Light Snow still falling

We have a light dusting now on the sidewalks and driveways as well as the roofs in McMinnville. We expect a mixture of Snow/Sleet and Freezing Rain all day and into tonight. Here are some other spotter observations. From Sheridan: "At about 1:55 ice pellets began to fall in Sheridan...my temp reading is 35.1...no freezing rain observed yet but some light snowflakes in the air...very fine ice pellets....Ken Barrios" From (30 miles East of Newport): i am in the chitwood area of hwy 20, east of newport about 17 land miles. it is currently dropping temps...about .5 degree per 1/2 hour. we are 29' as of 11:50. rain, no ice, no snow and very breezy east winds. oddly enough the temps are falling at newport as well. the airport itself is just south of the city on a small hill..

LIGHT SNOW and SLEET

We are getting a very light snow/sleet mix as of right now. Im not sure how long this will last before turning to freezing rain. More updates coming

Looks like we may skip snow...

Even though the higher elevations are colder, it seems like we have a variable freezing level which my have a hole over the central willamette valley to prevent snow from occuring. A report from Salem was freezing rain, so I am just going to expect freezing rain for the time being. The radar shows moisture over us but it may be virga (eveaporating before hitting the ground) for 15 minutes do to how dry the air is. Will keep u posted!

Good Question, where is the Warm air aloft?

A good question from someone reading the blog, the current temps for government camp is 20 and its in the 20's at Timberline which is 6,000ft. I thought I saw some flakes earlier and I don't see why this couldn't start as snow. We may get some snow and it will then transition to freezing rain and sleet later. The moisture has reached salem but I have no clue to what is falling there because my weather spotters have not sent me info. I will be checking back, I wouldn't be surprized to see snow first, good possibility!

Slowly Moving In..

The system is now about 30 or less miles from salem according to dopplar radar. Freezing rain is spreading into the area, I expect the same for us when it rolls in. According to my weather station, its 35.2. Pretty warm, but the DP is 17 and when the mositure sturates the atmoshphere we expect that to drop the temps pretty good. Maybe 2 hours away still for McMinnville. Keep posted.

Start out as Snow?

People are wondering if this sytem will start out as snow. As of now, Rye Mountain.. 30 miles SE of McMinnville and 2,000ft Elevation is 28 degrees with low DP. There could be a thick enough layer of cold that could help the precip start out as snow for us for a little bit, but then change over to freezing rain and sleet. Hey, it could happen..but with these types of events you just can't say for sure. The temps have moderated a bit.. 34.3 Degrees with 16.7 as DP. The clouds are now rolling over us and we will say goodbye to the sun for awhile. The band of moisture is just at Corvallis now and I will be getting updates from Corvallis shortly. Stay tuned..

100th Blog Post Brings a Winter Storm Warning...

Well, this is my 100th post in the blog today, and with that, we bring up a Winter Storm Warning. This is the second WSW issued this month, the last one was a bust. This one states we could see freezing rain as soon as 2 pm Today. I am not too confident in what will excatly go down until it happens. Current temp reading as of 8:30 AM is 30.3 degrees F. Winds at 9mph with 22.4 degree windchill. It will be the first time I will be using my new electronic rain guage, so that would be pretty cool. Of course I will be keeping you all posted on what goes down every other hour. But please remember when Freezing rain occurs, do not drive. I don't want to see any fatal crashes in the News-Register come Tuesday's edition. More updates to come..

Winter Storm Watch in Effect for Sun/Mon.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the NWS of Portland. It states that their is a real threat of Freezing Rain/ And Sleet for McMinnville and the rest of the Central Willamette Valley. Its expected to Start late Sunday and last into Monday Morning. Morning commute will be a hazard and is recommended that you keep a close watch on the latest forecast's/discussions. More info to come soon...

BRRRR Its COLD!

What is with all this cold air lately? Our monthly average is now at 35.4! I have not seen this kind of December for awhile. And thanks to James on your comments, to answer your question..the Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.noaa.gov) has good information on the SOI and the Tropics. You can learn more through their information they have availiable. Back to the current weather, we are currently monitoing a possible major Ice Storm by early next week. We could see some flurries on Saturday night as a weak front makes it through. Next week, cold air will be in place as a stronger and wetter system trys to make it through, could bring over an inch of ice from salem north. The Gorge will get pounded. Another observation, my pond has been frozen for 3 days now, thats how cold it has been. I will be updating the forecast page later tonight. Take Care!

Thanks for the Comment from "Anonymous"

Very informational. I was trying to say we have not seen this kind of pattern for awhile, and I have not seen this cold of weather for awhile either for this amount of time. So do you belive in Global Warming now? I don't. I belive in Global Patterns in such, Cold Phase, Warm Phase. This just proves that we are heading more into a cold phase, so much for all that bluff on Global Warming.

Way Below Normal December Regarding Temps...

We are averaging 36.2 on my weather station for the month of December. Thats Cold!! And whats even more weird about that is, we are under the influence of a High Ridge that has been persistant. Usually when you get High Ridges, you warm up pretty good and stay generally clear. Our low this morning got t0 21! Now, this does remind me of last year and I am not starting to get worried, but not too much though because most models now agree to break the ridge down and go zonal by day 8. This has been a weird winter (or fall) so far, only makes you wonder "whats next?"

Go Away Ridge!!

I understand some of your guy's concerns over this blocking ridge lately. I am starting to get a little edgy about this myself, but there is really nothing to support this kind of ridging, its a strange pattern we are in. But we are still cold, thanks to the gorgeous east winds. The only precip I can see in the foreseeable future is possibly this weekend. We will stay cold once again this week, then we could see rain kick up by next week. Now as for a white Christmas? Nope, I don't see it happening this year as far as the models see. But things can change obviously since their has been hiccups in the GFS being all sporadic in every run. It has been really boring lately, a little too boring for winter, well early fall for most of you, but Meteorological Winter started Dec. 1st. Take care!

Retrogression Next Week!

Well, now all the models (ECMWF being an exception at the moment) are showing a nice little retrogression next week that could bring in cold air to the area. This idea is still new, so the details arn't quite known yet. Also, dreaming of a white Christmas? So far that looks off for this year once again, but it's still early. We'll see. And some are emailing me with questions about the current weather setup. Some people can't see the magnet that shows the current temp and wind speed, I will try to work on that. I have been trying to work out some bugs with the weather station so hold tight. Yesterday my temp reading got as high as 56 degrees, disregard that. The sun found a way to shine directly at the thermometer and warmed it up nicely so will have to move that. Other than that, enjoy the nice weekend and the quite before the next close calls for snow and freezin rain!

Make up your MINDS!!

The GFS model cannot be trusted in long range patterns..duh!? The models ar unable to pick an event in the long range to agree on. Every model run is a dramatic change from the last. Whats going on? By all means, this winter will be in it's own category. I don't think this will be one of the analogs for awhile. To see ahead to Christmas, thats like trying to hit the 1 CM target on a dart board..blindfolded while being spun around. Pretty bad huh? Im not too sure why this ridge wants to keep building. I've said this before but it seems like mother nature cannot let go of the past (last winter). Mostly all of the Tropics numbers are agianst the idea of a strong ridge for the NW, so why is it forming? That, we'll never know! Lets just hope it brings us some good Arctic events in the future. Also, I am sorry for the Forecast page being offline. I will try to get tgat back up tonight. Take Care!

Another Ridge, but no warm up in sight...

Well, we are in another stubbourn ridge, I always get an outcry about these suckers by people asking if we should be worried? I don't think we should be worried, I see hardly any numbers to support a long last ridge, and it should die soon. Now what about our chances for a white christmas? Thats still up in the air, but if we transition into a nice retrogression by the end of the ridge, we could find ourselfs in a good trough that could have potential to increase our chances of seeing a nice snow event. As for your question Brian, I havn't talked to him yet (Dr. Taylor). I will send him up an email and see what he's thinking about all of this. I have been really bust lately with research so I need to get into more writing in the blog. Thank you all for the questions and come back tomorrow!

Another round of: Almost but not Quite?

It seems like now with every storm we have a chance of Low Elevation snow. This time around, we have a chance for Snow, Sleet or Freezing Rain as a system pulls even colder air than any of the previous close calls. But will this really happen? Well there are a lot that work agasnt this system, like how its supposed to split and most of the energy goes more south due to a High Pressure in place. Second of all, we never got snow with the previous storms. Third of all, we live in a Valley only 167ft above sea level. Right now, I will leave in a SLIGHT chance of any precip making it inland, but for some reason, this system looks much bigger than previously thought so maybe thats some good news? All in all, it will be ANOTHER close call so its one of those forecast's where its wait and see. Take care!

New Computer in the Office...

I received a new computer to go along with my Weather Station for I can have a constant live update. Now for those who are a bit confused at where the current weather is, on the main page below the News Section scroll down and you'll see the Current Weather. If you click on that, it sends you to a page where it records data. Its a pretty neat thing. The site has been going pretty slow lately now that I am trying to transfer everything on the new computer. I hope you guys can hang in there at some points. Thanks for everyone who has made this page more expandable.

Live Weather Up and Running

I am using the Underground Weather interface for putting the live results on the web site, works for now. You can click that interface and it will take you to raw data and stats which is really cool. Now next week, we are watching a cold arctic high pass to the east of Washington and Oregon. This may cause the east winds to get going and bring in some cool temepratures, but no snow. We are done with snow chances for awhile now. How about those who ask me about a white christmas in McMiinville (Western Oregon)? Well to answer that question, I firmly belive that we have a better than normal shot at seeing cold by that time which also increases the chance for frozen precip. As for a White Christmas? Well a week and a half more, then we'll start getting a better idea at what our real chances our. Long range models though have been very inconsistant. We will see another persistant ridge of high pressure build into the region and so far it looks to be staying all this week and into the weekend. Have a Great Weekend!

Weather Station has Arrived!

I have recived my new weather station and I am currently setting it up for I can put it on my web page for live updates. I am pretty excited about that. To recap things from last night, we got a rain/snow mix all last night as well as today. Its been cold, but not cold enough to support flat out snow. We are watching a situation unfold for next week which may keep our temps on the cool side even though a ridge will build. I will have more information on that as well as the chances for a white christmas in western oregon. All that tomorrow, take care!

KPTV, KOIN and KATU, they all get A's....

Thanks Gary for your report, Snow Level in the Northern Coast Range is about 900 ft according to Gary's observations while a snow/rain mix at Vernonia. I will admit, I didn't do all too well for this storm as well..but I did start to feel that it wouldn't happen by 11 PM last night. I brought up a large map of current observations for the western half of Oregon including the Gorge and looked at temps on the east side and in the Gorge. It was way too warm to have a sufficient cold flow pour into the Willamette Valley. Mark Nelsen of KPTV did a real good job at predicting this storm by going against the National Weather Service warning for the first time in his career. And it paid off, I give Mark a lot of respect and credit for pulling that off. Mark is a good friend of mine, and probally one of the best NW Meteorologist's I know of. He knows the climate very well, and he understands a lot about the NW. There is one thing he needs to work on though and that is Freezing Rain situations. Hope we don't have too much of those events around this year. Other than that, KATU and KOIN also went against the NWS by saying little to no snow. The only goof of the day was from KGW where they predicted an all out snow event. Ouch. Now Matt Zaffino is a really smart guy, but come on..I think you could of done way better than that. Now you will understand why the Meteorologists here are so pessimistic when snow is in the forecast. And I will be too! Thanks for those who read the blog to keep track of the storm.. I hope it was a useful and informational tool. Comments or Suggestions welcomed. By the way.. Bellingham, Washington got some snow, thanks to Brian's report.. if you guys received snow, send me reports and I will make a storm report. Take Care!

Major Forecast Bust

Wow, the NWS overdid everything by issuing a Winter Starm Warning for 4-8 inches and we get nothing. I had an idea things weren't going right after watching Mark Nelsens forecast. He pointed out that the air in the Gorge wasn't as cold as it should be to bring in some good snow material. I saw this fall apart at the last minute and I became victim to the ill advised models that showed cold enough air to support snow. We do not expect any snow at all for the valley floor and nothing in the near future either. For everyone who used the comments on the blog, I am sorry I couldn't instantly reply to your important questions. The Blog server im using wouldn't let me post untill after 4:00 AM. Thank you to those who read the blog and who left comments about the site. Im sorry for those who thought they would get snow, but like I said..it just wasn't cold enough. Im going to be more on the conservative side when snow chances strike again. Take Care!

Things are starting to get interesting..

We have Mark Nelsen stating there will be no snow at all for the Valleys and we have the NWS with a Warning of up to 4-8 inches for the Valley. Now the concearn here is the winds. Right now we are still at a NW wind direction and second of all, its not the coldest in the gorge at the moment. So what does this say? It will be ANOTHER close call for snow. I firmly believe that it will start out as rain. But if its going to snow, we are going to need more cold support than we have now. I am starting to get a little more concearned, it will be a nail biter...

8:50 Update

Winds are now switching to the NE and we will start to see temps go down quite a bit. Right now at the office, temperature reads as 37.0 F. I belive that my Thermometer is not the best so it may be a bit cooler than that right now. Moisture is still expected to reach us early tomorrow morning. We still expect about 3-8 inches of snow possible before it transitions to rain by Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Evening. I will be updating the warning on the front and will be updating the forecast.

7:45 Update...

We are still seeing light wind in the area, wind chills are reaching the upper 20's with some of the gust's. Temperatures will start to decrease more and more as the wind picks up. The next update will come out at around 8:45 to 9:00 when the NWS releases its final Weather Discussion for the day. I will be schedualing nightly updates one at 2:30 AM and one at 5:00 AM. I also will be adding a school closure link on the top of the front page for anyone interested in that. If you have any questions or request's then please comment.

Winter Storm Coverage...

Its 6:45 PM right now and skies are a bit foggy in area's. The current temperature reading here is 37.0 F. A light N wind is blowing, it will turn to an NE/E wind later. We are watching the moisture start to develope in Southern Oregon. We may start out as rain here first but it will transition to Snow. The moisture may reach us a bit earlier than expected so we'll have to keep an eye out on this. Keep your page here for more updates...

Snow Snow Snow!

Wow, as I thought it couldn't get more exciting, it has! Now Winter Storm Watches for the area are going up and we are expecting a decent storm to hit the area and dump possibly 2-5" of snow. This could be our first big Snow Storm of the season and certainly not the last. I will be updating reports on the front page constantly and will be taking pictures of the snow. I will have a lot of juicey tidbits on here later. Hope you guys get prepared and buy some hot chocolate, you'll need it. Im very busy with this storm today so I will cut it short here, take care and drive safe!

Technical Difficulties Prevent Blog Post's

I am afraid I may have lost peoples interest in reading the blog due to the lack of post's. This is because of technical difficulties in preventing me to submit a blog post. I also have been having problems with the site and so I hope I fixed all of that. I apologize for this. Weatherwise, wow..a close call yesterday. It snowed for 5 minutes on the west side of town then transitioned to rain/snow mix..then just to rain. Now, we are watching this storm come in for Thursday morning and may bring the same stuff but with colder air behind this time to support the chances of snow here to the valley floor. This would mainly be a morning event, then the snow killer moves in (the dreadful South Winds) and turns all those nice crystals into a liquid. Just how much snow? Maybe 2-4 inches before turning to rain. We will see, I do not count my hopes up on such events like these because the chances are far greater than when you know for sure if your gonna get the snow or not. I will be updating you with the warning on the front page. Take care and drive safe!

Snow in the Forecast? Whats that about?

We have many possabilities for Snow but whats holding us back? Well in order for us to get snow so early in the season is that the ingrediants have to be PERFECT, I mean, not one mistake in order to see snow. Those ingrediants look to be 90% there by Monday. So we are not perfect yet and thus; we'll keep it at a low chance to see snow in Western Oregon. The West Hills and Coast Range could see some good snow, but we will see for now. Another question on the models that I explained in the last Blog post "What is thickness and what do I have to look at?" Well the thickness is how cold it will get. if your thickness gets below 530 then your gonna be in good shape. Below that, even better for cold. Other than that, I hope you all had a great thanksgiving..I know I did. It was a cold one though, Highs were only 40 degress in McMinnville. Well I will be updating the site as the day goes on, so expect things to get back on track. Take Care!

Low Snow Levels this Weekend into Next Week!

Snow Levels could go as low as 1500ft this weekend and next week, possibly even lower! The Jet will sag to our south, allowing cold air aloft to sink into the area. How cold will this air be? Im still not too sure yet, but everything depends on how cold the air above will be once it drops into place. Our highs will stay in the lower 40's, pretty chilly but as you know, not cold enough to support snow at the moment. Talk about a change in the weather pattern. Other than that, to answer a comment from James, to look at models, you have to know what your looking at and know what your looking for. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is a nice tool to have for 5 days out, more than that..you can count on dramatic last minute changes so hince that you only look 5 days out using that model. To get cold air in the NW, you have to watch out for deep dips in the jet stream which shouldnt be hard to find, and if that dips down pretty far and has negative thickness, then you can count on cold weather and potential snow for the low lands. Another model I tend to use is the Canadian Model. On my forecast page, I have links to those models. I look at the Animation and watch the blue (on the top right of the animation) and see if that comes close. The blue outlines the Arctic Air Masses and is a great tool for that purpose. Another popular model is the Euro, or "ECMWF" That helps a lot too in confirming the GFS. If they both align, then you have a good chance of that certain event happening. My advice for you is to look online for more information and see if they can simplify the models for you. Thanks for the question. Also a note, I will not be updating the site Today until Friday due to the Holiday. Take Care and have a GREAT thanksgiving.

Interesting Pattern Setting Up...

Looking at all the models as always, there have been patterns where we could look at snow. Right now, snow seems too distant as of current GFS run. But its not out of the question. Our highs should stay in the 40's all of next week..maybe even sticking into the lower 40's. It will be interesting to see the next model run (GFS 00z compared to the 06z) tomorrow. Right now, the long range forecast is unsettled and cannot make any predictions as of right now. Good news though, the ridge is on track to die by Thursday and be replaced by a couple of troughs. I am also a Forecaster at this great site called The Weather Service and its a page where you can find forecast's and discuss your weather in a nice enviorment all in one. www.theweatherservice.com. I am in there quite often and if you would like to catch up with me sometime then get into the forum and PM me or leave a message on the forum. Take Care!

Rain in sight, but snow? We'll see.

Now I am a skeptic when snow comes intot he picture so that mean I will start off with rain. Thursday night into Friday is when our ridge breaks down and we get in a pretty good storm. This storm could draw cold air from the east into our region and set up a pretty interesting weather event, but for now we are sticking to some rain for our area finally. We don't want to be greedy and ask for snow when we have had this ridge for almost 2 weeks with not even a drop of water. Washington looks like they will have the best chance for lowland snow next week and snow levels there could potentially reach 500ft. I would like snow measurments from Western Washington if you guys up there get any. Try not to rub it in. Other than that, the GFS is getting crazy with a couple of interesting patterns. The GFS has been unstable with flip flopping cold patterns with zonal patterns. For now though we are just going to concentrate on the zonal pattern and try to get some good rains and mountain snows in. Take Care!

30 Days Until Winter!

It dosn't seem like it but 30 more days. When I say it dosn't seem like it, I meant by the weather. At this time we should usually be cloudy with rain. But I do have some good news about this ridge, it will die by Friday and bring in some short waves in, meaning more rain and showers. Now, there has been differences in the models and I feel like I am gonna jynx any chance of it happening but some of the models bring in some modified arctic air into the area by December. Yes, its way too far out, but the last two models have had the same trend and we'll just have to wait and see. The GFS is a bit iffy so I wont be saying too much more about that untill 5 days out and it still has it come in. I'll have to admit though that this weather has brought in some beautiful fall weather. Enjoy it now! I will keep you guys posted about any new developments. Take Care!

JUST A REMINDER: Spotters Needed!

Shout out to kT, you left me a comment and is interested in being a spotter, click that link below and fill the form out for records. You never left an email. I want some of you folks to know that I am still in need for weather spotters around the NW and others, if interested then sign up here. Also, I need your input on the website, I need as much opinions and suggestions as I can get to make the site better for you and others. I will be making a survey to question you guys on the quality of the site and would be greatly appreciated if you would take it when it comes out tomorrow. Come on, get more involved! Now, someone in the blog had mentioned the fact that the water in the NW part of the Pacific has been warming.. a need to worry? No, its not something I would be worrying about, that wont have much effect on us and our weather for this winter. I am keeping an eye though out on the Models and it looks like we could get into a retrogression next week that could bring us some pretty cold air. Pretty interesting developments, stay tuned! Take care!

Food for Thought....

Thanks to whoever submitted this piece to me, it would be nice if you could leave a name for I can give the credit to you and not just some stranger. This writing below is not by me, but it is very very good in information for those of you who worry too much about this ridge! --Looking back at a some of the consistently coldest winters in NW Oregon and SW Washington, 1949-50 and 1985-86 actually stand out with similarities to this season so far. Both of these years had very mild preiods, most likely assoicated with anomalously strong high pressure ridges, in the month of November. In fact,the November of 1949, before one of the coldest winters ever recorded in Portland, was actually quite dry and mild, with temperatures in the mid and even upper sixties for the first six days of the month and temperatures remaining well above normal the entire month. Same with November 1985. Just weeks before the notorious Thanksgiving cold snap and snowstorm of '85, PDX was basking in temps in the mid sixties for consecutive days. This leads me to wonder, do mild November spells mean a sudden plunge in temperatures to come? Well this has been the setup so far this year, and by the looks of it was probably the same in 49-50 and 85-86. Zonal flow through October and some of November allows arctic air to beome bottled up to the north and grow colder and colder. Check out the temps in Fairbanks the past couple weeks if you don't believe me. Suddenly, a ridge pops over the west, dislodging this icebox and bringing chunks of it down over the east. After this ridge sits over us for a couple weeks or more, giving a dry, mild period, like we're in now, retrogression occurs and bam, we've got ourselves a ridge out over the mid-pacific, directing on its western flank airmasses of arctic origin straigt from the Yukon to the Northwest. By the looks of it this is what happened by the end of November '49 and '85, and it may happen again by the end of November '05. Check out the latest GFS and accuweather.com forecast for Portland for the weekend after Thanksgiving. Snow, highs in the thirties? Food for thought...

I See Light at the End of the Tunnel...Eventually

In regards to this stubborn and surprising Blocking Ridge, as all of you know, this has been a popular subject in our discussions and will continue to be so as time goes on. Now, looking at the latest Euro and GFS, models break down the Ridge by the end of next week. So expect a pleasant thanksgiving week. This will be a tough ridge to break through and it is fairly unlikely but not unheard of for this kind of pattern to occur while we are close to a La Nina like state. Although other opinions say otherwise, looking at all the other indices such as the SST, NAO and others seem to discount the likes of such strong ridges. But it is not uncommon, such that Brian, a daily reader of the blog brought up to me that Seattle experienced a strong ridge like this in 1995 and look at what happened later that year (Snow Events and Severe Flooding). So this may be a derterrant for now, but I still expect a fairly good winter with good cold outbreaks, and maybe for extended periods at times? We will keep an eye out on this. Also in the news is the fact that we have not had fog in the morning as predicted. Why is this? Well honestly..I don't know. Something I am going to research right after I get done, which is, well right now. Take Care!

Second Half of the Winter Predictions Out!

!!To Find the Second Half of the Winter Weather Predictions, click Here and scroll down to where it says Second Half Predictions. Thought I would clear the confusion up. !! I finally posted the 2nd half to my predictions yesterday, sorry about the wait. I found that the last half will be pretty interesting in how it unfolds so keep an eye on it. Also, I am not sure why but a lot of people have been telling me that they think this winter will be ruined because of this blocking ridge pattern that we are in now. Let me tell you this; winter has not even started yet, so why freak out? Sure, its bothersum that the ridge is in place and does cry for concearn but it wont last. By the beginning of December, you can count on a zonal flow to return eventually and bring in more storms. But I am confused at why this ridge is so strong when indices point out that the ridge shouldn't even be there in the first place. So take your opinions and sit tight, we'll see what happens. I bombed my second half of the predictions so expect a low grade on that. Never saw that coming. Take care!

27 Degrees This Morning!

Got pretty chilly here, 27 read my thermometer this morning. Anyways, I overshot the high's for today because I thought there was going to be more fog but obviously I was wrong. Sorry folks on that mistake. Also, for those of you who are patiently waiting for my last half of the Winter Forecast, hold on because I need to do the finishing touches today and post it up. We also have an Air Stagnation Advisory in effect due to the lack of winds so the air you breath from now untill thursday will be dirty. Those who have breathing problems should be advised to stay indoors untill this goes away. Busy day, so take care!

Fog Inversions to set up for the week!

As the ridge sets up as we speak, we will see a foggy week ahead of us. Why? Well when its clear and the ground is moist, we see fog develop. But as the fog develops, warm air above traps the fog and cold down below causing the mountains and the coast to be way warmer than the valleys. Also know as Inversions. So expect a foggy week and cool temperatures as highs and maybe start to see the sunshine more earlier by the end of the week. If you remember, this happened a lot last year here in McMinnville. Ok I have a question to answer by a Blog Viewer (haha that's what you are right now) and its by "Chinookwind" and he states: "ok, i'll bite....so many times we have seen this pattern set up here in the PNW over the past few years...coolish, wet fall then, boom, the ridge sets in and we are basically high and dry for most of the rest of the winter. i am just new to weather and dont understand enough about the models and their secrets, however...this ridge out there seems enormous and very strong...can you post links to other years where a ridge of this type was short lived, with similar indices and we ended up with a good year? by good year i mean a normal year with good mountain snows for the next seasons water supplies.we barely skated thru this last summer. " First of all, its not uncommon to see these types of ridges form. It happens most of the time in November actually. This is not the end of the winter, because winter hasn't even started so whats all the fret about? Sure i'd love to see snow in November but that is not the likely case this year. Second of all, I see this ridge breaking down by the 25th up to the end of the month as of current models. It also looks like a miny retrogression at the end of the ridge that could possibly bring cold air into the region but again, that's just too far off. I tried to find records that you have asked for but I haven't had too much free time to do so, so im gonna ask Jim Hinkle to chip in with that section and will get back to you. Any other questions? Take Care!

Missed an Update, Sorry Folks.

Sorry about missing the update for the forecast page last night. I had some problems going on last night that needed to be taken care of. I would rather not go into discussion about that as it has no relation to weather! But on that note, another little storm came by last night and brought more rain and wind. Mountains got more snow, which is good. We are still in for a ridge this week so it should be generally nice or outdoor plans but one problem with that. Fog Inversions. Thats when we stay fogged in all day with our highs in the 40's but you travel up the mountains the temperature gets warmer and warmer. So we could be dealing with that this week so it may spoil the sun. Once the ridge breaks somewhere around thanksgiving then we should be getting back to the zonal flow or less likely, a retrogression. We'll see. Take Care! --Next Forecast Update at 9:00 PM.

Drying Ridge Sets Up for Next Week...

For those who have had just about enough with the rain, well heres your break. A blocking ridge will set up over the PNW starting Sunday Night and lasting until Thursday... No cold or wet weather is expected in the near future and this is something I do not want to see this winter. It seems that the east will get their cold and snow soon as the Blocking Ridge here will allow an arctic mass to lean towards the Great Lakes region. Hope they enjoy that, im sure they will. So there is nothing really to report here today, other that your dry weather is soon to come while my cold weather yet awaits another day. Take Care

Snow Next Week? Accuweather says so!

According to Accuweather.com they have snow in the 15 day outlook starting on Nov. 18 I belive. First off, that's 9 days out for crying out loud. Second of all, I don't see anything to point to any kind of snow here in the valley within the next 10 days. FYI to those folks who use the Accuweather site, their site calculates the forecasts by computer models, not by human. So by tomorrow or the next day I can assure you that on the 18th, wont have snow anymore and in fact, it will keep getting pushed back until its not in the forecast anymore. Hate to burst peoples bubbles, as much as I want snow..but realistically..don't see it happening anytime soon. I hope that this will clear anyone who is excited or confused about the situation. But thanks for the person who warned me by emailing me what the saw. Anyone who does notice that stuff please contact me and I will give you the facts. Thanks again and take care!

It Finally Hit 32 Degrees This Morning!

Finally, the official end to the growing season (usually the first freezing temp of the Fall) arrived this morning when temps reached 32 degrees. I also call this the start of the Snow Season here because we have reached a freezing point and now temperatures wont have trouble making it to 32 and tonight, expect more freezing temps in the valley. Good news for me, I don't know about you. Also we are keeping an eye out on a strong westerly flow this weekend that could form a low and cause Cyclogenesis which is; the rapid deepening of a Low Pressure system and these are what usually give us the big wind storms. Of course I am very pessemestic about this due to the fact its quite a ways away and that every forecast that had a good wind event here has changed at the last minute. We'll see, Take Care!

2nd Blog of the Day!

From the previous blog below, I will add one last tidbit and that was from Brian, thanks Brian for the spell check on this guy! "I have noticed several errors in the two posts by "Anonymous". First of all, Bozo the Clown is a proper name, so the word "Clown" should be capitalized. It was not. Second, the word "grammar" is misspelled, it is with an "a", not an "e". Finally, the "your" should be "you're" (short for "you are".). Finally, the phrase "high schooler" is also improper, there is no word "schooler". So Grant, I think this person is far worse with spelling and grammar then you are."--Brian Again, if your lost, check out the post below this and read the comments left by some goons trying to show off. Anyways, weather related information... I am still confused about why NOAA says we will have a mild and drier winter than is predicted by all the other folks in the NW. I think their problem is that they have no idea on what the climate is like in the NW and tend to lose track of all the other small details like; The Gorge and how it effects cold air from getting here (Western Oregon) and how wet on average we are. Pretty much, expect a cool and wet winter. Good chances for snow in the valleys as well as good snow in the mountains. Take Care, and thanks again Brian, ha ha:)!-- By the way Brian, its "than" not then.."So Grant, I think this person is far worse with spelling and grammar then you are" --"Then" is past tense, im not in the past...take care;)

Cheap Shots...

Im not sure whether these last comments were here to offend me or to give me some good ol' advice but I can assure you when writing this blog that spelling is not my top concern. I tend to get on one subject and go from there. I type pretty fast and yeah im going to make some careless mistakes. This isn't the "Spelling Blog.." I can find one for you though if that bothers you so much. These are my thoughts and my opinions, a lot of people can disagree with me or make their own opinions, but if you are going to step up and make a comment, then don't hide behind the computer..tell us, well, me, who you are. Anyways, I apologize to my other readers, but I had to take the time and tell some of these nice folks who love to share their opinions my reasons why I don't care too much for spelling, just as long as you know what it's trying to say. Try typing fast someday, you'll understand. Take Care!

Temps have been below average for somtime now...

I have noticed that our transition to fall came quite early. We are already expecting Highs to make it only in the 40's tomorrow. Last year our highs stayed cold due to fog all day, this year is a different case. I can say that at the Winter Meeting, the word cold came up a lot. Gave me confidence that we will have a pretty good winter in terms of cold and chances for snow. Now yesterday, that storm was a total dud. I mean we got pretty gusty winds last night but that was it. Things came out too over dramatic by the models and things were thrown everywere, even the possibility of winds around 60 mph (which was what started the early morning High Wind Watch in the first place) then things slowed down and it all went smooth I suppose. What a bummer, we didn't even get the 2 inches of rain predicted. Well anyways, we should be getting a little beak this week with some breathing room between storms here and there. Hey, to end the blog, lets end it on this thought. Snow on Thanksgiving? Its possible...

Finally! A High Wind Watch!--Or Not

UPDATE: Right when I posted this, NOAA decides to cancel the High Wind Watch because the sustained winds were below 40 mph I guess. Very pissed off, do they have bozo the clown working for them or what??? Learn to make the right call, I have so much more I want to say but its not appropiate. Still expect strong winds though. What I have been looking for in a long time has finally come! A High Wind Watch for the Willamette Valley. This excites me because we have a possible good sized windstorm in the making and we can get gusts up to 60 mph. This low has saved me, not really but I am pretty excited to see how this all falls into place. Of course I will be keeping track of this storm and letting all you folks know what to do and whats going to happen. This also excites me because in my winter prediction for early november I predicted a wind storm. That would be awesome to actually get that down. People thought I was insane for actually predicting an event, but I felt that we were way over due for a windstorm and did some research to come up with early november as a likely target. Well folks, keep posted and I will take pictures, especially of any damage.

Expect Snow, Wind and Lots of Rain!

This winter will be full of surprises, including the possibility of snow! In about every presentation, they seem to believe that we have a higher than normal chance for seeing a Snow Event. One Meteorologist, Kyle Dittmore (spelling?) predicted 2 snow events of the magnitude of 2003's winter blast. Wow, that may be a little overdone but you just never know. They also come to the conclusion that we will be above normal in precipitation (no kidding?) and about normal in temps. Think of this meeting like a Weather All Star game, with the likes of Mark Nelsen(KPTV), Matt Zaffino (KGW), Jim Little (Former Koin Meteorologist), Dave Sweeney (Great Guy!) and Ron Peterson of KGW. George Taylor of course was there as well, talked to him for a bit. All in all, this winter will be great for weather lovers, or as mark would call us... "Weather geeks." Haha, maybe for him, for me I am an extremist for weather. It was a fun meeting, but the ride home was awful, heavy downpours..could hardly see 10 ft in front of me at times. We also have a flood watch in place for Saturday Night into Sunday. Keep you posted on that. Take Care!

Winter Weather Meeting and More Rain..Wind Too?

Im attending tomorrows winter weather meeting at OMSI, feel free to show up at 10 AM until 12. Should be interesting! Now, to more frustrating news once again. Wind or no Wind on Saturday. Currently there is this Low that will be developing rapidly off the coast on Saturday and when you hear that, usually you immeadiatley think.. WINDSTORM! But WAIT, the NWS has winds so far 15-25 mph which is n-o-t-h-i-n-g. But they did mention the possibility of High Wind watches but did not specify if the Valleys were to be in that. Fact is, NWS still has no idea on these types of events and they are awful at predicting winds. But I don't want to stay on this subject due to the fact that I spent all day yesterday on it. On a good note, the Cascades got plentiful snow and are expecting maybe up to 3 feet of new snow by weekends end. WOW. Early ski season on the horizon. It will be a good year for mountain snows. Hopefully we can near our average snowfall for the mountains this year. Take Care!

Wind or No Wind, Make up Your MIND!!

NOAA lately, I belive, have been a bit wish casting in their predictions due to the fact that they predict high winds couple days out and every single time they downgrade the wind speeds at the last minute. For instance, they predicted 15-30 mph winds with 40 mph gusts yesterday not its 15-25 mph with 35 mph wind gusts...weak. I also don't liek the fact that NOAA only updates their web site 4 times a day (2:00 AM, 9:00 AM, 2:00 PM and 9:00 PM). They give little information and I called them yesterday to get an opinion on the winds that they predicted and they said "Uhh, well the winds is what we have predicted..thats what will happen, no need to discuss that any further" and yet they downgrade the winds the next day. Awful front desk management. I think that place needs an overhual, but thats just me so far. Take care!

Urban Flooding, Heavy Rains Reek Havoc...

Wow, what an active week in weather in McMinnville. First, a wind storm, then heavy rains to lead to water lying on the streets. On my way to campus, I almost hydroplained because I miscalculated the water ahead of me. A lot do that so, slow down when you see large area's of water on the street. Thought I'd give you that advice. Now to top that off, NOAA is predicting 20-30 mph winds with 40 mph+ gusts possible for Wednesday Night into Thursday. With, once again, heavy rain. So please be careful out there, and make sure you have all your trees all cut, the hazardous ones that is for they don't make a surprise visit through your roof in case the winds to get pretty wild. Keep posted tot he latest warnings as well. I also want storm pictures so anyone who has any PLEASE send them to me along with a storm report. Take Care!

Boo! Surprize Windstorm Hits in Some Area's..

A surprize windstorm hit western Oregon as gust's made it to 36 mph in McMinnville and 50 mph gust's on the Coast. There was scattered damage (fallen trees, flooded parking lots..etc) and if you have any damage please send me pictures or a detailed report. That would be helpful. Now the question is, will we have a repeat tonight and tomorrow morning? There seems to be a rather strong storm once again developing off the coast. It all depends on the position of it but we are guranteed m ore substantial rainfall. Where I am, I have a rain guage set outside and it read 1.5 inches. Other spots around town did not recieve as much do to some rain shadowing going on. I would call it a spotty rain event. More of where that came from later tonight into tomorrow. Buckle down folks, we may be in for a report of this morning! Take Care!

Late Post, Expect a Soggy Halloween!

Sorry folks, but it looks like Halloween will be a wash out, especially with all thr tropical moister entrenched into these shortwaves that are embedded in the warm front. This will bring heavy rainfall, flooding could be a concearn but that is unknown of at this time so will keep a close eye on that situation as it developes. A reminder that the Annual "What Will Winter Be Like" meeting at OMSI will take place on Friday the 4rth of November. I will be there taking notes and trying to make sense of all this wacky science involving this years winter predictions. I am making a National Forecast for Halloween and will expect it to be out on Sunday, the best results will be of then. Take care!

Pineapple Express this comeing week?

It looks like we will be getting significant rainfall Sunday-Monday thanks to a warm front witha tropical connection. This will be a minor so to speak Pinapple Express. This is not a good pattern for Mountain snow and Snow Levels will be up dramatically by this. Halloween looks to be wet folks, so try to get some water proof costumes for the children and use an unbrella. I will be tracking this system, in case we need any flood watches or warnings. I will be keeping an eye out, so check back!

Highs in the 40's!!!!

Todays High reched a whopping 48 degrees! Thanks to the heavy dense fog and the oncoming storm, the temps stayed in the 40's for the first time this fall. You would imagine that things would stay cold if we have another cold front coming in, hmm. But this was unexpected and I thought it was pretty cool. Finally things have got cold, but tomorrow will probaly be warmer, 55-57 range. Still not too bad. Well I am busy so Im sorry for no post yesterday and making this one short. Take care!

One Word to Describe it... "RAIN"

Well, we finally got some more rain and we have to expect tomorrow to be cooler (thank god) so I am pretty happy about that. The coast got hit with more wind again. A non-valley event, which is alright, just as long as it rains. Models for far out are getting into the stormy mode, which I like! I am also observing a coold pool of air in Canada sneaking its way south every model run on the Canadian Model. If I mention this againt hen that means the air has made a good way down and could be a threat. Other than that, the east is getting hit with a pretty wild nor'easter. Good for them eh? It looks pretty impressive on radar. Almost the entire NE is covered with falling precipitation. Thats Amazing! Other than that, expect more rain! Take care!

Second Coastal Windstorm to hit Tomorrow...

Another coastal wind event will take place tomorrow. Staying mostly in the low headlands, but still rather strong so NOAA has issued a High Wind Watch there. Here, we will stay rainy and breezy for Tuesday- Tuesday Evening. We will get a rush of cold air on Wednesday so our lows could possibly reach in the 30's even with showers around. Would be cool to see the temps go to 32;) haha. But they wont! We are in a very active stage of the Jet Stream and will recieve some well awaited rain, and mountain snow. A Snow Advisory for the Cascades could be issued by tonight or tomorrow depending on the dynamics of this storm. I hope we get good snow up there, other than that.. nothing too new. We will stay in a zonal flow all the way into next week with storms arriving eveyr other day with periods of dryness in between. Take care!

Jet Stream Takes Aim...

I lost my shift key so please bare with me with the captilalizations. Anyways though, the recent models suggest a trend that the jet stream takes aim at us and brings in some good storms. This should be a great change for our weather and it makes me smile for once. Now lets see some cold, windstorms..Etc. I know some east coast spots already getting snow. The earliest I have ever seen snow in mcminnville was November 2nd, 2003. Pretty snowy year actually. It didn't stick around for too long but it was nice and I have some pictures of it on the picture page of the site. I do not see snow in the near future of course but it was a good thought. Well enjoy your cloudy Sunday. Take care.

What gets my Frustrated...

Is this weather, I don't want to see anymore sun at all, and I want the temps to go down. And it seems that the cold air above has some kind of shield that wont let cold air come down. Yes it's still October but come on, the last half of October last year was cooler than this last half stretch so far. I mean, I look at these models and the cold air always seems to go strait to the Mid West or East and will not even bother dipping into this half of the country. Never known weather could be this annoying but it sure is. Im pretty sure we will get our chance of cold air, but it wont be happening anytime soon. So please, if it wont be cold, then send me a windstorm or two, and make em' strong. Lets move on, lets head to winter. Seems like mother nature likes to hold on the the past, move on!

Boring day in Weather!

Today is a boring day, too warm, too sunny..and nothing exciting in our line of fire. I have not contacted Steve yet about Jims report but I will do so soon. I also just published a report called "Look to Alaska for any chances of Snow" which describes how I use Alaska's weather to determine if we have any good shots at cold air. Strait up, if Alaska is cold, then expect we get a lot more shots of cold. So hope for that! I am working on other reports and should have those up in a timely manner. Wow, this weather sucks! Thats very unprofessional of me to say, but since this is a blog, I will say what is on my mind! I hope for a change soon, next week looks to cool down and get damp. Until then, take care!

Response to readers questions...

I have got a lot of responses from readers who like Jims report and evidence of a cold winter. Im still sticking with my predictions of about average temperatures, but I want to mention the threat of cold events start mainly around December 20th and last's until Janaury 20th, then from there until March we can see short spouts of cold. And I do expect an Arctic outbreak this winter but how long, how cold and all the details I cannot say, but in my opinion I hope its hell of a blast of cold air! Lets break some cold records! Also, I don't contact Steve Pierce (Dr. Taylors other friend that had his forecast in Georges report) But I can contact him and show him Jims report and get his opinions on it as well. I will post that too. Take care!

Response from Dr. Taylor

I got a response to Jim Hinkles report (Click Here to Read) from George Taylor and this is what he had to say: "Looks pretty convincing. I like the way he took lots of different combinations and displayed them separately, and then did a composite conclusion regarding all the individual maps. I went through many of the same variables and ended up with a composite of the years and did just the one map. The Pacific has changed a lot in the last 2 months, and probably if I were issuing my forecast now I'd back off on the temperatures some. We'll see -- and most of us agree it's going to be an INTERESTING winter! GT" I would have to agree with Dr. Taylor, but it is too late now to change any winter forecast. I made one revision in September, but I don't expect to make any others. I was really impressed with how Jim handled his findings, and I would like to reach out and invite him to speak at the annual "What Will Winter Be Like" meeting at OMSI in Portland on November 4rth at 10 am to 12 pm. That would be very interesting. Other than that, the weather takes a turn by next week and we head into a more active and wetter pattern. Take care!

New findings in this winters patterns...

In a new report by Jim Hinkle (aka Snow_Wizard) he has found great findings to back up his theory of a cold winter in the NW. I find the statistics pretty amazing and will have to have a closer look. I plan to have Dr. Taylor review the report and give his personal opinion on it. If you havn't checked it out, check it out

Cold Weekend?

Ahh the nice GFS Wish Casting models! They start to dig a deep cool trough into the NW by this coming weekend. How cold? Not so sure, and obviously will take into consideration that the models are still pretty bad and its far out. It looks impressive now but will weaken by the days end. This month has been below average to just about average most of the days. A far cry from what was originally predicted. Its been pretty damp too but we have not reached our average monthly rainfall for this month. But its likely we will exceed it by the end of the month which is good. Right now everything looks good, this is way different than last year which sucked really bad. Ok well take care!

Close Call...

That Low Pressure system decided to weaken at a good time to prevent the winds which all in all bummed me out. Although our official wind gust was 35 mph, I still recall that as weak. That was fun though trying to predict what would happen, I generally got most right. Now we are watching a trough next week that could potentially bring cold air to the area, but thats too far off and right now thats probaly not likely. These models had a tough time with this last system and to rely on them for 6-7 days out is insane. What the models do is play with your mind, to make you get excited then when it gets closer by, haha fooled you. Something we all need to get used to. Sometimes I refere the models as a bully. But whatever. Nothing too exciting to report in the weather community, I did a review on yesterdays storm so check that out. I am also waiting on the September Monthly Review by OCS which is awfully late. Take Care!

High Wind Warning for the Coast...

This storm has been hard to track but today is the day we will know if we get strong winds or not. NOAA has already issued High Wind Warnings for the Coast. Now I am keeping an eye out on pressure. I think its likely we can see gusts make it around 40 mph tonight. I have done a lot of research the last couple of days and this track can prove windy for us as well as the coast of corse. I am also waiting on the Forecast Discussion for 2:00 and see what they have to say on whats going on. I have my warning sound on incase NOAA does put out statements or warnings for the Willamette Valley. I will be tracking this 24/7 today so if there are any updates or warning, you will know first! Keep Updated!

Ready or Not? Wind or No Wind..Here it Comes!

This Low Pressure System is extremly dangerous at this point. It looks to be deepening and the path of this storm is uncertain. There is a couple models that say we can see extreme wind, especially at the Coast and others that say the Low will track south with little wind. Honest;y, we do not know at this point and it can end up being nothing other than a nice rainy day or it can blow up into a surprize windstorm. I have been researching windstorm paths like crazy today and there are a couple of tracks that look similar to the models track which can end up being a windstorm. I hate the unpredictability, but I also don't want to put false information out there, I want to be as thourough as I can in predicting this. Again, this can end up being nothing and I can be sitting here wasting my time. But this is exciting. I will have up Windstorm Awareness site that will be informative in many ways. Please go through it and get educated on these things. Take Care!

On A Lighter Note....

I have been tracking this Low Pressure system but now models have it a lil more off the coast which reduces any major threat of a Windstrom on Friday. I have issued an advisory last night letting people know about what could happened as of yesterdays models, which is now downgraded to a knowledgeable message about windstroms and how we are now in Windstrom Season. I will keep an eye though, these things can strike on the last minute. In other news, WOW did you see Denver? They got pumbled with a Snow Storm and got over a foot of snow. Thats amazing for this time of year but not rare. It was amazing to notice that on Saturday their high was 88, Sunday it was 53 then Monday it was 33. WOW, talk about a major shift in the weather, that kind of stuff would make me sick. Ok, well take care!

Possible Windstorm Friday??

I am keeping a close close eye on a system of low pressure that arrives on the west coast. Its expected to amplify, which is dangerous and causes are big windstroms. These deserves close monitoring, I don't want to freak anyone out but I think some people deserve to know what can happen, if things go as according. Here's what NOAA had to say: ".LONG TERM...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTING A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AS A STRONG UPSTREAM PAC STORM AMPLIFIES NEAR THE W COAST. DETAILS STILL EVOLVING BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION...THEN IF THIS FORECAST PATTERN VERIFIES WE SHOULD SEE GOOD RIDGING SUN INTO NEXT MON FOR DRY CONDITIONS. &&" We will closley watch this and give you updates. This most likely will all fall apart like always since the models are having early trouble. Take Care!

I was busy yesterday

I apologize for not posting in the blog yesterday, I was busy observing the Portland Trail Blazers scrimmage at Linfield College. I had a question from someone on the last blog post asking if Dr. Taylor will be revising his Winter Forecast for the October half. He suggested that its too late to revise anything now, so he wont bother. He is still in agreement with the rest of his forecast, mild and wet winter. Off to local weather news, we have hit a time where its going to be boring because of an amplified ridge of high pressure taking place next week. So expect fairly nice fall weather for the first half of next week. I have to keep a close eye on models due to their uncertainty about what's next. We are in a period now where we also have to watch out for Windstorms of any kind that can strike. Remembering the Columbus Day Storm is why we consider this the start of the "windstorm season" here in the NW. I plan to put updates on the site, however, Dr. Taylor has not updated his website with any reports as well as people who make other reports have been slow too. I apologize for that and promise to bring you more reports and updates asap when available. Take care!

Updates to come!

Sorry again for yesterdays mishap. The web page was being very difficult so I could not update your forecast. But I have fixed everything now and expect your forecast's in a timely manner. Also, expect some new reports by George Taylor and be another fella soon. This last week has been kinda boring in the Weather department so expect things to heat up later. Its been quite an interesting pattern we have been in, off and on rain and sun, which is typical fall weather. We are still getting rather weak pacific systems (last weekend an exception) so I am waiting for the more power suckers to bring us a lot more rain, wind, snow, and whatever else it has planned. I will keep you all updated. Take care!

McMinnville Weather is experiencing difficulties

The server is down so the forecast will not be updated for tomorrows (Thursdays) time frame. I apologize for this and it will be fixed in no time for contiunous updates in forecast. You can check out the latest forecast on the National Weather Services webpage linked in my links section of the web site. Sorry!

Smelled like Fall!

Ahh the smell of fires burning to keep houses warm, the colors of the leafs... oh, fall officially came on the 22nd of September. So its that time, smell the air, feel the cold biting at your nose and watch the rains come and go. I also want to say thanks to Cloudman John (John Day) for pointing out a pretty cool snowflake siet. Snowcrystals.com, which has many neat pictures of up close pic's of Snowflakes. Check it out. Well this time of the year the forecast's are getting harder to predict, with storms changing timeing and path everyday, im glad I stuck with a 5 Day Planner rather than a 7. I don't belive in predicting past 5 days, nor predicting big events past 2 days. Things are just uncertain up untill 2 days untill the storm hits. Well enjoy the below average temperatures, now im off to go see if I can catch any of the Blazers down at Linfield. Take care!

56 Was Our High Yesterday....

Wow, this is late October, early November weather taking over last couple of days. If our temps are capable of only getting to 56 on October 2nd, then I think we are capable of having an early Snow Event.. and if we were, it would most likely be in early November because we have got snow as early as Nov. 2 as I have Snow Pics that were taken on that day two years ago. Being more realistic now, I belive we have started our rain season now but its not a one after another at the moment. We have rain possible for Tuesday Night into Wednesday and again on Friday. Of course, like I have mentioned before, the models are still rusty and are having trouble predicting these early rain events, especially on timing. This does not help anyones case in trying to know what the next couple days will be like so we have to take and extraordinary educational guess at times to figure these systems out. I would also like to mention that I have read Dr. John Day's column on Extra Tropical Mid-Lattitude Cyclones and would like to offer him a nice site that deals with past events of such in Oregon. http://oregonstate.edu/~readw/. Take care!

October is here...

Well a good start to October, we ended September with 1.11" of rain yesterday. Thats pretty good. I am continuing to monitor the other systems but I am a bit confused on the timeing so we will have to see. Anyways though, yesterday was a mild rain. I went outside in just my shorts and shit, no shoes or sweatshirt. Its hard to imagine mild when the temps were in the 60's but it felt way warmer than that. Also tomorrows highs will be around 60, now thats pretty chilly for this time of the year. Now about the web page. I have this amatuer weather goo roo named Snow_Wizard in the Farmers Almanac forum who is putting together a report on his beleifes that the NW could very well have a pretty cold winter. I thought first, this guy must be crazy, but I give an equal oppertunity to anyone who puts together a report backed with facts and all so I will be posting that up soon. Well that will do it for today, take care!

The Truth has Finally Arrived!!

Well today is finally the day and what do we have? RAIN! Its about time, rhis is great. Now the rain season has started and I don't see no real end to it any time soon other than a couple of breaks. This is a pretty early start, now I will keep an eye up North to see when we can expect the cold air. I love the rain, especially not seeing it for so long. They said that we could get up to 1.75 inches of rain out of this when its all said and done. So expect a fairly wet October, a change from the original winter forecast I made which I revised earlier in the week. Take care and enjoy!

Here comes fall...

Officially fall began on September 22nd, but tomorrow starts the weather pattern for fall and our temperatures will dramatically shift from the 70's to the 60's for highs. My highs for today were off, I admit the bad forecast, I was thinking that maybe the lower clouds would hang in there for a little longer but they didn't and thus; our temperatures were around 78, not 74. I don't know how much rain we will get, we can end up with one inch when all is said and done. Enjoy the fall weather, I know I will. The cold weather is around the corner and I personally can't wait. Take care!

To come, or not to come..really..that is the question...

As you know, I have been keeping track of this weather system that should arrive by end week and models cannot seem to make up their minds on this. They must be rusty because summer just ended, talk about some tune ups needed. Well it looks like we could see a night soaker on Thursday Night into Friday but again we will just have to wait. Im starting to think that this wont come, but thats the art of weather..the element of surprize! Also, these last two days have been pretty warm, I think we reached 80 yesterday and I thought they were all done. Its safe to say that now, they are officially done. Leafs all around town are starting to get color into them and thus, we will see the leafs fall pretty fast this year unlike last year. Take care!

New Weather Pictures...

New weather pics, check it out. Nice shots of Rainier and Mount Hood. Ok well I took a break on Sunday, I am getting really busy. This weather system this weekend is being stubbourn so it changes everyday and it just pisses me off. Very frustrating, how about for you? Ok well I have updated some parts of the site, hope it stays informational for you. I also added Winter Weather Saftey Awareness Week link from NOAA. Check it out if your not familiar with the NW's winters. I will get some interstesing weather news tomorrow for blog fans like you so keep an eye out for that. Take care!

30's for lows?

Sorry about yesterdays blog, I put in a bit of wishcasting in the bottom half. As far as I am concerned, that system is still on track to get us but its pretty far off and its the GFS model which always makes things over dramatic. Bit of pessimism kicking in, but I will still keep my fingers crossed. Ok, so this morning hit 36 degrees, brr that's chilly! The morning before it got to 38! So whats going on here? Well, we have what we call Radiational Cooling, if the night is clear, the heat has no where to go but up! So now we have longer nights, and the skies have been clear, expect a pretty cold night. I put the low tonight as 35, we have clear nights so we will see if I can get this right. Low temperatures are particularly hard to predict, so I use the dewpoint to help me set a target low. If the dewpoint, any time of the day, usually around the 5:50 time period is in the 30's, we have a good chance to see our temps reach in the 30's. So I look at that, last night it was in the 29 degree area but I assure you that it will not get that cold for awhile as a low. Take care!

Late Post, but here goes..

This is off topic but I was amazed that the Portland Trail Blazers will be hosting their Training Camp in McMinnville starting October 4rth. An NBA team in McMinnville? Thats great, shows you just how local the team is. OK back to weather, I was checking both the GFS and the ECMWF 12z models and they both show a huge system hitting us by October 1st, this means the first big rain for fall. I honestly hope this is true, I want to see the rain! I want to see a lot of weather, im ready for it! What about you? I will keep you posted! Take care!

First day of Fall!

Ahh, a nice and cool day for the first day of fall and for starters...lets discuss Hurricanes! I got a question from an anonymous person and it read: "It is my understanding that hurricanes are named alphabetically. Since Katrina starts with "K," does this in fact mean that there have been several other hurricanes of lesser magnitude, elsewhere in the world, which have started with "L" through "Q," which brings us up to "R" for Rita? Is this a normal amount or is the frequency of hurricanes steadily increasing worldwide? Just wondering..." First off, yes they are named alphabetically and are named from a boys name to a girls name in between each name. NOAA usually sets a list of 21 Atlantic Hurricane names, they have never been over that number before untill maybe this year? If we get more than 21 Hurricanes or Tropical storms we will start naming the Hurricanes roman names. The normal amount of Hurricanes and Tropical storms is 11 yearly. Some belive we are in pattern where we will get above normal amounts of Hurricanes, maybe for 10 more years. Why? I don't belive its Global Warming, and I don't belive in the new worlds definition of "Global Warming". I will write a column on that later. Its just a Climatic Pattern, it comes and goes. Thanks for the questions! Take Care!

Hurricane Rita....

Its a shame that another big hurricane is on track to hit another Gulf Coast State, Texas. The NOAA Hurricane Center has just released statistics that this storm is the 3rd strongest in history, even stronger than Katrina in barometric pressure readings. This is horrible news for Texas, and this is going to be another huge disaster, 3 weeks afrer the first. This isn't good for the U.S. nor Texas, someohow I think our taxes will eventually go up because of this and gas prices will rise even more. Sad story, I will keep all of you updated, my prayers go out to the Gulf Coast people. Take care!

About myself...

Some people may have got "who I am" confused. Dr. John Day brought up the fact that maybe I should state more clearly that I am not an expert or a professional in the immediate field of Meteorology but an advid amateur studying the field in order to get to the status as expert. I do not claim to be anything BUT an amateur and I want to make it clear to others who view the site of who I am. I am a High School Senior, devoted to researching weather around the area and abroad. I am educated enough to make my reports and comments on current and future weather events, or else I wouldn't have made this site and waste my time, or your time on nonsense. Behind every report, I stand by it with my knowledge and information I get to research it. For my forecasts, I use Weather Models..the GFS, ETA's..etc and for long term I use Analog Years as well as SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures/El Nino-La Nina). I hope we all can get this information out and enjoy the site for what it has. Thank you for those who support my site and my interests, take care!

SST's trending a La Nina?

I have taken a look at the current SST's and everyone is going crazy over speculation to whether or not we are heading towards a La Nina and the answer is yes. The temperatures off of S. America are cooling pretty good and continue to do so, this path is projected to continue on some models from the Climate Prediction Center. Its obvious we are heading into a cool period, which boggles my mind to think we will have a mild winter. My best guess is that the first half of winter will start off below average in temp, trend to about average, then drop by January. Jan. will be the coldest month of the Winter, expect an arctic outbreak before the 15th, after the 15th the winter will begin to start to trend to a more mild pattern as well as being wet. That is what I see from by BEST educated prediction. If im wrong, im wrong, but with all the data im looking at, it seems to be the case. Until further notice, this is where I will leave this topic as it can drift into the water cooler news section. Take care!

The Orographic Snow Effect Theory...

I am during an ongoing research project on why McMinnville can be the coldest spot in the Willamette Valley and why we can see more snow events than others in a winter. My theory states that when cold air arrives, it is scraping agsnt the top of the coast range like an ice shaver shaving the ice off your car window. The tall peaks in the coast range gather the cold and cold is heavier so it sinks down and travels down the mountains to pile up near the foothills where McMinnville is located. This would explain why we are colder, a very simple explanantion as I would call it. I am going to do more research to try to prove this and I will post my results on here as soon as I am done. I'll also give a better explanation than what I had to offer in this blog. Very interesting, indeed. Take care!

This and That

Well today I have been busy but I have been going through some of the weather forums and theres a lot of people interested in what this winter will be like. It's a big mystery, honestly we can all say what it could eb like but we just dont know the exacts. SST patterns are a good key factor in helping predict also comparing analog years that resemble this year. Someone asked me since a month now that I have made my winter forecast, do I see any changes that need be be made? Honest answer is yes and that might be the first part of October. Like I stated in a previous post, this month has been about average and cool. So I will have to re look that and make any changes that need to be made.

Need to make the website for everyone...

I am getting a lot of feedback from users out of state. That is good, but now I am going to have to make this site fit their needs for they can come back and be satisfied everytime. I am going to have a page full of different citys around the NW with live weather from Weather.com. If you want your city on this page then email me. I love feedback and discussions, I also will allow people out of state to send in their pictures and I will post them. Today ahs been pretty chilly, I was off for the first time since I started forecast's so thats something I need to investigate. I hope that I can give you guys everything you need. I will look for articles to post in my next blog that are interesting and that deal with weather of the NW. Take care!

Words on Weather

I heard an interesting question by a peer and it was "Can Oregon get Hurricanes?" I have answered that in my latest Column "Are We in for a Extreme Winter?" Yes, we get what we call Extra Tropical Mid-Latitude Cyclones which have some characteristics as a Hurricane but does not form like one. We get strong low pressure systems that deepen and if they come at a certain angle right off the Oregon Coast, then you will get a windstorm. How strong of winds? Depends on the situation, timing and position. In 1962 we received a huge windstorm, the infamous "Columbus Day Storm." That was compared to a Category 3 Hurricane and beat it out. Interesting huh? Well I will write a report on Windtsorms and post it in the Weather Interactive section of the site. I will inform you when that happens for you can get better educated on that. Some of my other peers interestingly said that since all of these disasters are happening, it feels as if we are due for one soon. Quite scary to think about but true. We are due for one unfortunately and all's we can do is cross our fingers and hope it all prolongs. Ok well take care everyone!

New Report Out!

Sorry for the late post, I have just released a report on this winter. Its nothing too new from what we have been discussing but outlines more of the extreme weather events that are possible this winter. I also recieved an email and wanted me to join the Farmers Almanac and other web Forums to post my predictions and all so don't be surprized if you see me surfing around in there. I am keeping an eye out on a pretty good looking weather system later next week, looks strong but seems to be aimed a little more north of us so we'll how far this goes. Take care!

On Target...

I have made the observation that my High's prediected for the day are pretty much on target. Maybe 2 degrees off on days but the point for a high temperature is to give you a target at where to expect the range of temp. Its ok to have a high 3 degrees(+/-) but any more than that should be looked at and figured out. Its great to know that my predictions are on target and that I can give you guys a forecast you all can rely on. I take pride in my work and I strive to be successful everyday. I thank you all of whom check back everyday and read the content on my site, you make this site the best. If you guys have any considerations of anything that can fufill your weather needs, please feel free to email me them and I will try to get that up and running in no time. Take care!

An Early Fall, Cold October?...

Well, I think I MIGHT need to go over my first half of the Winter Weather predictions as a surprising cold and below average September is taking place. I belive its safe to say that we can be out of the 80's all year with maybe an exception tomorrow. We have begun to be in a cold showery pattern which has cought me off gurad. I can't say for sure that this will lead into a cold october but I will look into that by the end of this month and if this pattern continues I am going to have to tweak my forecast and make a report. A lot of color changes in the tree's already so this could lead to an early fall. Take care!

So far so quiet...

As a guilty pleasure I love to watch the radar and keep track of the showers but so far it has been quiet. Temperatures are awfully cold, in the low 60's right now and this should give a boost to an early fall coloring to the tree's. Last year we still had leaves all the way into November, way late for all that. I'm still keeping an eye out for the Thunderstorm potential and see if that pans out, I may have to edit my forecast for today but I will keep an eye out till the next Forecast Discussion is out at 2 or so. Also, not weather related, MTV is having a huge benefit concert for Hurricane Relief and has a lot of good music so tune in at 8 on MTV. Take care!

Cooled down alright...

Today was pretty chilly, high was 67. 2 degree's short of today's forecast I made. Pretty close though, other than that there was no thunder which bummed me out, im a big fan for thunder and lightning. I am going through with tomorrow's forecast and checking how that stands as of current models. Also I couldn't post a blog early because the site was down so I am sorry forf the late post. The site is running pretty again, I still need to fix the RSS Feed of the Weather Watches and Warnings on the front page, it works but there is this "A" in front of it and it bugs me. Take care everyone and drive safely in the rain.

Finally some forecast's!

After about 3 weeks of being up, the forecast's will start tomorrow...and boy I have a big task in front of me with this sucka. What I found funny was that Weather.com had our forecast as windy for tonight with winds up to 30 MPH. NOAA dosn't say that strong of winds, who makes Weather.com's forecast's anyways? A computer? Well however they do it, it's not that reliable, changes everyday...sometimes even a dramatic chance form sunny and fair, 75 degrees to Showers and Wind with 66 degree weather. Its rediculous. Ok well no big news yet so keep posted, take care!

Weather Wrap-Up...

Just a reminder to those who check in dailey that sometimes I wont be posting a blog due to the lack of new news and all but PLEASE keep checking back often because winter is coming up and there will be more to write about. For now, we expect a low pressure system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and bring a CHANCE for measurable precipitation this weekend. I was watching a news weather report (KGW I belive) and they even mentioned that we could see the last 80 degree day tomorrow for the year, but I wouldn't go so far to say that right now. So if you have any back to school weekend plans, then keep checking back for updates. Also a reminder that this site will become fully functional on September 9th, but could be moved up to the following Monday but we will see. Take care everyone!

No more 90 degree days!

I think its safe to say that our 90 degree days are finally over while a more average pattern takes over. I already see some colors changing in tree's, so we could be in for an early fall. Fall is a very beautiful time as well as spring so get those camera's out and take pictures. If you take any good leaf color pictures, please send them to me and I will put them on the pictures page. I have also set a donations link to the American Red Cross if you feel like you want to help Hurricane Katrina victims. Other than that, take care!

Taylors Winter Forecast, Part 2 (REVIEW)

Well now its out and official so lets take a look at it. First off, last year was a surprize year.. no one thought it would be soo dry and I don't blame Taylor at all for mispredicting that. I belive all Meteorologist's got it all wrong so that makes up for that. Second of all, he says we are in for a Mild and Wet Winter? Well i'd have to disagree because I belive the first half of Winter will be cool and then I can see it warming up in the second half. Third of all, no snow events? I kind of find that hard to belive, I made some percentages and we have atleast a 73% chance of Snow from a Trace to 1 inch. So I can gurantee you we can see atleast that once this winter. But as you all know, you cannot predict exactly how much snow so I wont even try to get into too much details on that. George also agrees on good chances to see extreme events this winter, including the infamous Extra-Tropical Cyclones (aka Windstorms) as well as floods and ice events. So as I leave you to that note, expect a wild winter and be prepared. Take care everyone and enjoy his Forecast!

Georges Winter Forecast is complete!

Again though, I am not sure if I can release the link yet so I will wait until its officially up. It looks great, I was a bit surprised on his guess about any Snowevents in the lower valley. I will review it completely tomorrow so check back. Today I have been following along on CNN with all this Hurricane Coverage. It's pretty sad seeing all the destruction. Your going to hear about this everyday for the next month. It's kinda of scary thinking about the fact that our world has seen many devastating events (Tsunami, Hurricanes) in the last year, makes you wonder if our region (Northwest) is next? And what for? We have Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Floods and Windstorms that can get us, we will get one soon... but which one? Food for thought, take care!

Wild Day Yesterday for Northern Oregon

Landslides, Heavy Rain and Funnel Clouds is how you can describe Monday for Northern Oregon. Some places got atleast an inch and a half within a one hour period, that could be devastating any way you look at it. Other than that, Hurricane Katrina is going to be marked on top of Hurricane Andrew as the greatest Hurricane on record. Its pretty devastating to see all the damage on TV and it makes you glad that you don't live in a region where that stuff can come upon you like that. But Oregon is more than capable of producing High winds and floods, but not in Hurricane fashion. My thoughts and prayers are out for everyone effected by this monster.

Very BUSY day today....

As all of you know, the south eastern states are getting pounded by a fearce Hurricane. My heart goes out to all of them and I wish them all the best luck. From that note, I got a sneak peak of a Winter Weather Forecast by Steve Pierce thanks to George Taylor and it looks very intrigung. I will not discuss it right now untill George's Winter Weather Forecast is out offically and I am able to discuss it then. So stay tuned! But I can say that a majority of us weather goo roo's and Metorologist's see a great chance for a windstorm. Lets hope not, but it's possible. Other than that, todays weather has been WET! Thats a very big change. I have not heard thunder or seen lightning but 30 miles south of us there was a Funnel Cloud reported. So it's been interesting but will be short lived. Keep it safe!

My RSS Severe Weather Feed Works!

I was relieved when I could finally test my RSS feed from NOAA with the Severe Weather Watches/Warnings. Earlier this morning NOAA of Portland issued a Special Weather Statement regarding a swift change of the weather for an early sneak peak of Fall. Temperatures will dip as low as the low 70's for highs and the freezing level will be as low as 6500 FT by Monday which could bring Timberline Lodge of Mt. Hood a dusting of snow. Now that is pretty amazing since its still August so keep in mind this must be a really really cold system coming in. If this was winter, we'd see snow from this pattern. Well anyways, temperatures all this week are expected to remain just under 80 so we will be a little below average all week. That's a big change form our intense 90 degree days we have been having. But all in all I am excited that the RSS feed on the front page of McMinnville Weather.com works and I am very excited for the upcoming weather season. Take care!

Very Immature Rants by Willamette Week on George Taylor

On August 24rth, Willamette Week published an article that criticised George Taylor and his work, on the topic of "Global Warming." This was a selfish act upon the reporter and is really misleading with a bunch of false information. I was outraged, and as a guy I respect and take after in Weather research and forecasting in George Taylor, I thought it would be the least I can do to show my support for him. George came back fighting in his on article here. Read that and come back to this. Besides, everyone has their opinions on Global warming, but 100 years earlier we were in a stage way warmer than it is now and I believe we are just going through a climatic pattern that is ongoing. Im sorry Willamette Week, George has made a point and has backed up his word with facts, not lies and rants. To the reporter that wrote the article: "How can you discredit a State climatologists scientific knowledge if you as a reporter don't have any knowledge of the subject and you don't study the Climate yourself?" But whatever.

Winter Weather Meeting and Windstorms

Im sitting here watching Hurricane coverage on Hurricane Katrina and its pretty interesting watching these guys reporting in wide open area's in the Hurricane. And it reminded me of the 1995 Windstorm that struck Western Oregon with gusts to 70-80 mph and sustaind winds around 60 mph. I remember looking outside and the rain on the ground was being blown everywhere like a Hurricane and was pretty dramatic. I want to see another one, hopefully this winter. Well, the annual Winter Weather Meeting is November 4rth at 10 AM. I will be there to take notes and post them on this site. Oh and there is rain in the forecast!! Wow, thats a first since early July. Take care!

The nights are starting to get cooler...

Why is this? Obviously we are losing a couple minutes off the sunlight each day and as we lose light, we have longer nights which in fact let the air cool down more. Last night got down to around 45 *F which is pretty cool. Get used to it! 28 Days of summer left, and you can start to feel it. As for now, I am still awaiting George Taylors Annual Winter Weather Forecast which should be avaliable later this week or early next week. Can't wait. Untill then, have a wonderful rest of the summer!

Farmers Almanac a reliable forecaster?

George Taylor of OCS just sent me some Farmer Almanac predictions and one said we will be in for a cold winter while the other says we are going to have a wet and mild winter. These confuse me and the mild one dosn't sound right. The first half of winter will be cool up untill maybe mid to upper January (15-22). Then I can see it getting mild. I don't put my faitha nd trust in these things for most of the time these predictions are way off. Not all the time, but most of the time! If you want to know what this winter will be like, go back to 1995. Most common analog year would be that and is the closest to how this year is going. Ahh weather can be so confusing at times. Stay tuned.

30 days of Summer left.

Well, 30 days left of summer and I am ready for it to go. Generally for weather forecasters, this is the easiest and most boring time of the year. If you notice the way I have made McMinnville Weather.com more tolerant to the Winter season. What's going on so far is that this winter looks to be very exciting, a lot of storms. I am trying to do more research on "Western Oregon Snowfall" and as you can tell my main interest in weather sits near Snow. I love snow, loved it since I was a little boy wondering where it came from and how it does snow. Very unique weather event, especially for McMinnville since we don't see an abundance of snow here. But we do average 4 inches a year and I will even admit that surprised me at first. Well for now I will continue doing my work, the site opens, well it officially is updated in forecasts starting on September 10th. Come back every once and a while and read up on reports and breaking weather news. Also the Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are automatically updated by RSS feed directly from NOAA. So that's a neat thing to have, very helpful. Take care and enjoy!